DKE: Democratic net gain of Gov seats unlikely

[Vega]

Yeah, Hawaii isn't competitive. Aiona won't win.

I want someone else to poll the race so people stop aggregating it as competitive and tricking people. Ige will win.

[Vega]

A scenario I see at this point is that the Dems pick up PA, KS, and ME. While losing IL, AR, CT, and potentially HI/CO.

So basically a genuine "anti-incumbent" for gubernatorial elections.

Abercrombie lost his primary. Hawaii is safe.

What the Speaker said. Hawaii going red ain't happening.

[Vega]

Dems will definately take MI, PA and ME and RI. Holding at least 23 19 seats.

RI isn't a pickup since Chafee became a Democrat last year.

[Vega]

To be honest, I think that had Abercrombie won, he still would have been able to manage a slim victory (less than 5 points).