Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014
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  Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014
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Author Topic: Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014  (Read 17733 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« on: August 25, 2014, 09:38:16 PM »

President Petro Poroshenko has called new elections for the 26th of October, 2014. This after the coalition government of Fatherland, UDAR, and Freedom collapsed.

Here is the most recent poll:

Radical Party of Ukraine: 22.2% (!?!?!?!??!?!)
Fatherland: 17.4
UDAR: 11.5
Civil Position: 11.5
Solidarity: 11.1
Freedom: 6.9
Strong Ukraine: 5.2
Communist Party of Ukraine: 3.9
Samopomich (Self Reliance): 3.3
Party of Regions: 2.7

That poll is very much an outlier though. All previous polls since the revolution have had either Fatherland or Poroshenko's Solidarity Party in the lead.

The rise of the people's party is somewhat surprising. Prior to the revolution they were mostly known for their leader and only MP Oleh Lyashko being a self hating closeted gay. He somehow managed to come in 3rd in the presidential election though. I'm guessing he's positioned himself as some sort of Ukrainian nationalist/anti-Russian candidate. All the most recent news stories about him are about him punching pro-Russian people.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2014, 09:51:42 PM »

Lyashko runs around between the combat zone and the rada making populist rants and acting like hes doing something on  the front.
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Zanas
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2014, 04:03:52 AM »

Wasn't the Communist Party outlawed or something ?
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Nhoj
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2014, 01:40:05 PM »

Wasn't the Communist Party outlawed or something ?
its faction was disbanded in parliament but not kicked out of it or something like that. I think a ban on PoR and the commies hasnt been passed yet.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2014, 07:47:28 PM »

A law banning the Communist Party and the Party of Regions was put forward but never passed.

Also, the person who put it forward...Oleh Lyashko.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2014, 03:10:41 AM »

Apparently several former Communist and Region MPs now sit in a group called For Peace and Stability. I'm unsure exactly why they changed.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2014, 01:49:24 PM »

Former President Oleksandr Turchynov and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk have left Fatherland.

Yatsenyuk may form his own party and Turchynov may or may not take part. It's also possible that both will join the Poroshenko Bloc/Solidarity.

Yatsenyuk isn't that surprising since he led his own party previously. Turchynov is unexpected though since he's always been close to Yulia Tymoshenko.

The rump Fatherland, if it even keeps existing, is basically just Tymoshenko fetishists at this point. There predicament is made even worse by the fact that Tymoshenko has completely dropped off the public radar.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2014, 11:32:43 PM »

UDAR and the Poroshenko Bloc will run as one.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2014, 10:39:20 PM »

Poroshenko passed a law giving temporary autonomy to the East.

Fatherland opposed, so that might give them some room to maintain a reason for existence.

Also, Crimea had elections for the local parliament. United Russia won a super majority. LDPR was the only other party to get in.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2014, 10:40:25 AM »

I'd gather Batkivshchyna, this "Radical Party", and, ugh, Svoboda will be gainers here, which in Batkivshchyna's case here means "continued existence". Everything I have read has indicated the peace plan has gone down very poorly in Ukraine, the ruling "bloc" (whatever that means) will have to persuade voters not to boot them out. It's all very confusing.

The really interesting thing will be to see what happens to the Party of Regions and its, well, regions.

Also, Crimea had elections for the local parliament. United Russia won a super majority. LDPR was the only other party to get in.

This is probably worth a thread, if only to point and laugh/cry. Apparently there are no longer any Ukrainians or Tartars in Crimea now?
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palandio
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2014, 01:54:47 PM »

Don't forget that Ukraine is still an internally diverse country. Even if in large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast the vote won't take place, most of Southern and Eastern Ukraine will still have the possibility to vote and I doubt that a majority there will vote for extreme pro-EuroMaidan parties. Maybe on 26 october there will be low turnout in the South-East, but on the long run they will certainly regain some influence. (Not as much as before, because the Krim is gone.)
Remember that Kuchma's support base changed from the West to the East. Something similar to this might happen again, i.e. the moderate factions might rely heavily on South-Eastern votes in the near future.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2014, 07:27:16 PM »

Party of Regions is boycotting and I assume the Communists are as well.

Also worth noting, even as she speaks out against the peace deal, Putin is still making vaguely pro-Tymoshenko comments. Recently saying that her imprisonment was unjust and that it hurt Ukrainian-Russian relations.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2014, 10:29:52 AM »

Although the Party of Regions aren't taking part, a new group called the Opposition Bloc, which takes basically the exact same positions, will be on the ballot.

The Opposition Bloc is led by Yuriy Boiko, a Regions MP who ran for president as an independent and got less than 1% of the vote.

Importantly, it also includes Regions presidential candidate Mykhailo Dobkin and is financial backed by oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.

Other notable members include Jewish oligarch Vadym Rabinovych, who won 2% in the presidential elections, and Natalia Korolevska, leader of the left-wing Ukraine Forward party.

Serhiy Tihipko was originally supposed to be the leader of this group but he opted to run on his own because he thought they were too tainted by corruption.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2014, 09:22:44 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2014, 09:27:23 PM by Famous Mortimer »

Now that this is less than a week away, the parties are clearer:

Petro Poroshenko Bloc: Lacks much ideology beyond support for the president. In keeping with that sole principle, they strongly supported the very aggressive war against the East one day, and then supported the ill thought out ceasefire the next. The Bloc is led by former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko. Lutsenko is actually a pretty good guy. He was originally a member of the Socialist Party of Ukraine but broke with them when they supported Yanyukovych for Prime Minister. He was then a member of Our Ukraine and Fatherland before becoming a political prisoner during Yanyukovych's presidency. Other good people in the Bloc include Afghan-Ukrainian journalist Mustafa Nayem and Maidan doctor Olha Bohomolets (who won just under 2% of the vote running for president). The Bloc also includes new Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko's neo-liberal UDAR party, as well as a bunch of former Party of Regions MPs. Let's not forget that Poroshenko himself has ties to both the pro-Western camp and the pro-Russian camp.

People's Front: New party led by incumbent interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and former acting President Oleksandr Turchynov, both of whom left Yulia Tymoshenko's Fatherland party. The People's Front considered joining the Poroshenko Bloc and although they didn't, it's not clear what divides them. It could be argued that the People's Front is somewhat more hawkish, since it opposed the ceasefire, although it opposed it much less fiercely than other parties. It might also be argued that the People's Front is more conservative. Yatsenyuk's previously led the explicitly conservative Front for Change party and he has no links to social democracy, unlike Poroshenko and Lutsenko. Probably the main difference though is personal ambition and the fact that most of the People's Front politicians were too tainted/bland to get high up on Poroshenko's list.

Fatherland: The party of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and not many others at this point. It was hit hard by defections to other parties after the revolution. To be fair, a lot of those defectors never really cared for Tymoshenko in the first place and had only joined for the sake of forming a united opposition. A few of them, like Oleksandr Turchynov, actually were close personal allies though. What's left is only Tymoshenko's hardcore supporters. Like with the above parties, their platform doesn't include much in the way of ideology. They seem to be trying to position themselves as the sane, respectable face of Ukrainian nationalism. The number one candidate on their list isn't actually Tymoshenko, it's Ukrainian air force pilot Nadiya Savchenko, who was captured by rebels and is current imprisoned in Russia.

Radical Party: The more extreme and less respectable face of Ukrainian nationalism. Led by sole MP Oleh Lyashko. Lyashko was previously known for getting kicked out of the Tymoshenko Bloc for corruption (quite a feat) and probably being a closeted homosexual. Since the revolution though, he has repositioned himself as an ultra-nationalist. He was the one who proposed the ban of the Party of Regions and the Communist Party. He has engaged in fistfights with pro-Russian politicians. He took part in the storming of a rebel held government office in the East. He also wants to make Ukrainian the sole official language. For a while the party was rising in the polls based on this platform. They seem to have stalled with the ceasefire though, as other more respectable politicians took up the anti-Russia cause.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2014, 06:03:19 AM »

Official results and turnout stuff here (English):

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vnd2014/wp001e.html
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jaichind
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2014, 01:49:22 PM »

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- President Petro Poroshenko’s Party won 23% of vote, according to exit poll by 3 Kiev-based research institutes.
Poll has margin of error of 2.5 ppts
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front got 21.3%
Samopomich got 13.2%, Radical Party got 6.4%, ex-Premier Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna got 5.6%
Opposition Bloc containing former members of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych’s party got 7.6%
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sirius3100
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2014, 02:10:30 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2014, 02:15:50 PM by sirius3100 »

You forgot to mention the exit poll results for Svoboda. They've gotten ~6% of the votes.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2014, 05:17:14 PM »

Darh Vader prevented from voting in Ukraine Sad :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHrUEcDgEcM
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ag
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2014, 06:13:09 PM »

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- President Petro Poroshenko’s Party won 23% of vote, according to exit poll by 3 Kiev-based research institutes.
Poll has margin of error of 2.5 ppts
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front got 21.3%
Samopomich got 13.2%, Radical Party got 6.4%, ex-Premier Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna got 5.6%
Opposition Bloc containing former members of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych’s party got 7.6%

This, if it holds, is a huge upset. Everybody was convinced Poroshenko would be far ahead.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2014, 06:22:41 PM »

Kingmaker is Samopomich, a social conservative party who have anti-separatist commander Semen Semechenko as number 2. Tymoshenko will support Yatsenyuk.
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ag
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2014, 06:24:26 PM »

Kingmaker is Samopomich, a social conservative party who have anti-separatist commander Semen Semechenko as number 2. Tymoshenko will support Yatsenyuk.

At these numbers, it will be a Poroshenko/Yatsenyuk coalition, I would think. Actually, a Yatsenyuk/Poroshenko - since Yatsenyuk will likely stay the PM. This is the grand coalition time.
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Beagle
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« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2014, 06:45:57 PM »

This, if it holds, is a huge upset. Everybody was convinced Poroshenko would be far ahead.

Looking at the wiki, many pollsters did see a marked decline of the BPP in the last days (though apparently everybody and their grandmother can register as a pollster - I stopped counting at 10 halfway down the list). What would be stunning for me, if it holds, is Samopomich (Lviv mayor's party) winning Kiev. Did Klichko really mess things up this badly in 100 days as mayor?

Right now it looks likely that Poroshenko and the People's Front would have enough seats to form a majority between them, but apparently the preferred coalition is all 6 pro-Maidan parties together.

Yarosh appears to have won his constituency seat.





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ag
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2014, 07:08:53 PM »



Yarosh appears to have won his constituency seat.




In the East Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #23 on: October 26, 2014, 07:44:08 PM »

So far, with 6.46% of precincts reporting the results are

Poroshenko Bloc 21.97%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.88%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 8.77%
Samopomich 8.68%
Opposition Bloc 8.61%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.70%

Everybody else is under the 5% threshold (Svoboda is next, 4.38%)

Near tie both for the first/second and for the third/fifth spots Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #24 on: October 26, 2014, 07:56:02 PM »

7.45% of precincts reporting

Poroshenko Bloc 22.09%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.66%
Samopomich 9.02%
Opposition Bloc 8.76%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 8.54%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.54%
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Svoboda 4.46%

Everybody else is under 4% and is unlikely to get in, at this point.
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