Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014

[ag]

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- President Petro Poroshenko’s Party won 23% of vote, according to exit poll by 3 Kiev-based research institutes.
Poll has margin of error of 2.5 ppts
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front got 21.3%
Samopomich got 13.2%, Radical Party got 6.4%, ex-Premier Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna got 5.6%
Opposition Bloc containing former members of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych’s party got 7.6%

This, if it holds, is a huge upset. Everybody was convinced Poroshenko would be far ahead.

[ag]

Kingmaker is Samopomich, a social conservative party who have anti-separatist commander Semen Semechenko as number 2. Tymoshenko will support Yatsenyuk.

At these numbers, it will be a Poroshenko/Yatsenyuk coalition, I would think. Actually, a Yatsenyuk/Poroshenko - since Yatsenyuk will likely stay the PM. This is the grand coalition time.

[ag]

Yarosh appears to have won his constituency seat.

In the East

[ag]

So far, with 6.46% of precincts reporting the results are

Poroshenko Bloc 21.97%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.88%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 8.77%
Samopomich 8.68%
Opposition Bloc 8.61%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.70%

Everybody else is under the 5% threshold (Svoboda is next, 4.38%)

Near tie both for the first/second and for the third/fifth spots

[ag]

7.45% of precincts reporting

Poroshenko Bloc 22.09%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.66%
Samopomich 9.02%
Opposition Bloc 8.76%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 8.54%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.54%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.46%

Everybody else is under 4% and is unlikely to get in, at this point.

[ag]

So far, on the PR vote Poroshenko Bloc is leading in Vinnytsya, Zakarpattya, Kirovohrad, Mykolayiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kherson, Kmnelnytsky and in the city of Kyiv.

Popular Front is ahead in Volyn, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv province, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Cherkasy and Chernivtsy.

Opposition Bloc is ahead in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Luhansk, Odessa and Kharkiv

Lyashko is ahead in his native Chernihiv

[ag]

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vnd2014/wp300pt001f01=910.html

[ag]

I guess, you might prefer it in English

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vnd2014/wp300ept001f01=910.html

Interestingly, there is no longer a Russian version of the cvk webpage

[ag]

The connection is a bit erratic. Must be lots of people trying to access it all the time.

[ag]

9.8% of precincts reporting

Poroshenko Bloc 21.90%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.74%
Samopomich 9.37%
Opposition Bloc 8.90%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 8.33%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.39%
______________________________

Svoboda still at 4.46%

On the PR vote Poroshenko Bloc is leading in Vinnytsya, Zakarpattya, Kirovohrad, Mykolayiv, Odessa, Poltava, Sumy, Kherson, Kmnelnytsky and in the city of Kyiv.

Popular Front is ahead in Volyn, Zhytomyr, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv province, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Cherkasy, Chernivtsy and Chernihiv.

Opposition Bloc is ahead in Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Luhansk,  and Kharkiv

[ag]

10.99% reporting. Effective tie at the top

Poroshenko Bloc 21.79%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.65%
Samopomich 9.54%
Opposition Bloc 9.20%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 8.15%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.31%
______________________________

Svoboda is nearly constant at 4.48%
Communists 3.83%
etc...

For those who bother, the Right Sector is at 1.69%

[ag]

Leaders in FPTP constituencies (by party). Unfortunately, a lot of the candidates are officially independent, and I do not know who leans where.

Poroshenko Bloc 57
Popular Front 18
Batkivshchina 4
Svoboda 4
Opposition Bloc 2
Agrarian Union Zastup 2
Samopomich 1
Silna Ukraina 1
Right Sector 1
Volya 1
Independents 96

[ag]

Ridiculously tight race for the first place (so far, roughly 400 vote gap between the top two)

12.12% reporting.

Poroshenko Bloc 21.72%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.69%
Samopomich 9.71%
Opposition Bloc 9.27%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 8.04%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.23%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.53%
Communists 3.85%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.62%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.16%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.05%
Right Sector 1.70%
everybody else under 1% each

[ag]

13.38% reporting now. Popular Front has gotten out ahead (by just over a 1000 votes)!

And things start looking bad for Svoboda (not that the areas where they performed well are at all behind in the count)

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.72%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.64%
Samopomich 9.93%
Opposition Bloc 9.31%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.95%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.14%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.51%
Communists 3.86%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.54%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.14%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.10%
Right Sector 1.73%

[ag]

porotchenko down, great news !


can't wait to see face of pro-russian when they will watch the happy face of Alexandre Tourtchinov (Turchynov in english)



where are those smileys???

Turchynov is a rough attempt at transliteration Actually, if you insist on frenchifying it, it should be Porochenko

[ag]

It is almost 5AM Kiev and the count is less then 14% complete ?  Only place that is worse than this in terms of counting speed is Westchester County where I live.  California is almost as bad.  What is the ETA for counting to complete ?

Actually, it is, probably, more in reality. I am pretty sure the total is based on a "theoretical" number of precincts (at least, outside of Crimea), and too many of these failed to open in Donetsk and Luhansk.

Still, of course, very slow.

[ag]

Where's Strong Ukraine? Did they join the Opposition Bloc at the last minute?

At 3%. Just below the Agrarian Union, around where Hrytsenko is. Wasted vote.

[ag]

porotchenko down, great news !


can't wait to see face of pro-russian when they will watch the happy face of Alexandre Tourtchinov (Turchynov in english)



where are those smileys???

Turchynov is a rough attempt at transliteration Actually, if you insist on frenchifying it, it should be Porochenko

in fact, we use the "t" because "ch" sounds for us like "sh" for english. So PoroTchenko is the true "francised" (?) name of the PoU

And that is exactly the sound that should be there. Cyrillic ш

[ag]

14.74% now. Samopomich continues to grow.

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.70%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.65%
Samopomich 10.07%
Opposition Bloc 9.33%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.89%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.10%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.51%
Communists 3.86%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.49%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.13%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.12%
Right Sector 1.75%

[ag]

Where's Strong Ukraine? Did they join the Opposition Bloc at the last minute?

At 3%. Just below the Agrarian Union, around where Hrytsenko is. Wasted vote.

I'm guessing the Agrarian Union is Volodymyr Lytvyn's new outfit. Can anyone confirm that?

Seems near impossible to find anything on them, but does not seem to be it. Have no clue who they are.

[ag]

16% sharp reporting. Poroshenko Bloc back ahead

Prosohenko Bloc 21.69%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.62%
Samopomich 10.16%
Opposition Bloc 9.43%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.84%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 6.04%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.51%
Communists 3.89%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.43%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.14%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Right Sector 1.75%

[ag]

17.23% reporting. The gap between the two top lists is 142 votes (out of well of a million tabulated so far)! Good this is not a nationwide FPTP

Prosohenko Bloc 21.66%
Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.65%
Samopomich 10.24%
Opposition Bloc 9.52%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.79%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.98%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.51%
Communists 3.90%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.35%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.14%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Right Sector 1.77%

[ag]

The number two for Samopomich has the nom de guerre Semen Semenchenko. Please tell me that translates to something better in Ukrainian.

Simon Simons.

[ag]

18.49% reporting, Popular Front back in front

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.69%
Prosohenko Bloc 21.63%
Samopomich 10.30%
Opposition Bloc 9.52%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.77%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.98%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.53%
Communists 3.88%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.31%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.13%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.13%
Right Sector 1.77%

[ag]

wich part of ukraine is decounting ballot first ? cities ? rural areas ? east, west, center, south ?

initial reports seemed to be more rural. By now it is across the country. If we ignore Donetsk and Luhansk (where we will never have the 100% reporting ), everything is going roughly at the same speed. Zakarpattya has reported nearly 30% and Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy and Ternopil over 25%.  Kyiv (province, not city), Kirovohrad and Khmelnytsky are under 15%.