NH: UNH: Fluid races in both districts

[Miles]

Report.

CD1

Guinta (R)- 45%
Shea-Porter (D)- 41%

Shea-Porter (D)- 44%
Innis (R)- 37%

CD2

Kuster (D)- 39%
Garcia (R)- 36%

Kuster (D)- 41%
Lambert (R)- 35%

Kuster (D)- 40%
Lawrence (R)- 32%

Keeping with its penchant for wild swings, UNH had Kuster leading Garcia by 14 in their last poll; its down to 3 now.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

BOTTOM FALLING OUT!!!!!! DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!!!!!!!! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!1!1!1!1!11!one1!1!1!1

[Maxwell]

I hope Innis makes up the margin, but he probably won't.

[Vega]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

[SamInTheSouth]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

[Never]

Garcia has some work to do in NH-02, but I suspect Guinta could very well defeat Shea-Porter this November.

[free my dawg]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

Holy fyck, you really don't know anything about NH.

[NHLiberal]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

Holy fyck, you really don't know anything about NH.

Agreed. "Probably win" isn't a bad assessment of Shea-Porter and Kuster's chances and certainly isn't LOL worthy. I basically agree with Never; I'd say Kuster has about an 85% chance of winning and Shea-Porter a 55% chance.

[Never]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

Holy fyck, you really don't know anything about NH.

Agreed. "Probably win" isn't a bad assessment of Shea-Porter and Kuster's chances and certainly isn't LOL worthy. I basically agree with Never; I'd say Kuster has about an 85% chance of winning and Shea-Porter a 55% chance.

Exactly, Kuster is in a Lean or Likely D race, while Shea-Porter is in a more competitive one, but she's not an underdog or anything. Vega was being reasonable in my opinion.

[Maxwell]

I'd say Innis would've been favored against Shea-Porter, but Guinta is behind.

[free my dawg]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

Holy fyck, you really don't know anything about NH.

Agreed. "Probably win" isn't a bad assessment of Shea-Porter and Kuster's chances and certainly isn't LOL worthy. I basically agree with Never; I'd say Kuster has about an 85% chance of winning and Shea-Porter a 55% chance.

Exactly, Kuster is in a Lean or Likely D race, while Shea-Porter is in a more competitive one, but she's not an underdog or anything. Vega was being reasonable in my opinion.

This is accurate. Saying that Kuster is in a competitive race is straight up hackery.

[DrScholl]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

That actually should be "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt". If you are going to be snarky, at least try to get it correct.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Shea-Porter has a history of being written off. In 2006, the DCCC supported one of her primary opponents, and decided the race was a lost cause when she won the primary, and declined to help her at all. She won anyways.

[IceSpear]

Shea-Porter has a history of being written off. In 2006, the DCCC supported one of her primary opponents, and decided the race was a lost cause when she won the primary, and declined to help her at all. She won anyways.

Wasn't her victory in 2012 somewhat of a surprise as well?

[free my dawg]

Shea-Porter has a history of being written off. In 2006, the DCCC supported one of her primary opponents, and decided the race was a lost cause when she won the primary, and declined to help her at all. She won anyways.

Wasn't her victory in 2012 somewhat of a surprise as well?

I was cautiously optimistic in 2012, and I'll be doing the same thing here.

[Vega]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

Holy fyck, you really don't know anything about NH.

Agreed. "Probably win" isn't a bad assessment of Shea-Porter and Kuster's chances and certainly isn't LOL worthy. I basically agree with Never; I'd say Kuster has about an 85% chance of winning and Shea-Porter a 55% chance.

Exactly, Kuster is in a Lean or Likely D race, while Shea-Porter is in a more competitive one, but she's not an underdog or anything. Vega was being reasonable in my opinion.

This is accurate. Saying that Kuster is in a competitive race is straight up hackery.

Thanks for defending me, folks.

That being said, I don't know how anyone could say that Kuster isn't favored. Shea-Porter is a bit more in danger, but I still think the race is in her court right now. We'll see.

[SWE]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

lol

[Maxwell]

Both Kuster and Shea-Porter will probably win.

LOL

Denial ain't a river in Egypt

That actually should be "Denial ain't just a river in Egypt". If you are going to be snarky, at least try to get it correct.

Best response yet.