Carson vs. Democrat

[Free Bird]

Considering Ben Carson won an Iowa Straw Poll, I think we should at least discuss how he would perform in the general election. I know we will all discuss a scenario vs Clinton, but we could also discuss against Generics and other Democrats BESIDES Clinton.

[daveosupremo]

Is impossible to predict that because he hasn't articulated his views on a lot of critical issues like foreign policy. He could do well though, if he could manage to unite the GOP.

[Cobbler]

I can't see him beating any credible Democrat.

[daveosupremo]

I can't see him beating any credible Democrat.

At this point, you're probably right. But if he makes it through the primary, as this scenario suggests, he's clearly fairly politically savvy and has some popular policy views.

[King]

He speaks in platitudes that raise the dopamine levels in Teabagger brains, but there's no real substance that I can see. Let him sell books.

[Never]

Carson could lose against a generic Democrat, and it might not be particularly close. He could come out swinging, but he is the kind of candidate who runs the risk of flaming out. On the other hand, he does come from a unique background for a presidential nominee, and he might play well on the campaign trail, but I suspect that is unlikely.

Against Generic Democrat on a bad night:

Generic Democrat: 408 electoral votes
Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD): 130 electoral votes

Against Generic Democrat on neutral night:

Generic Democrat: 375 electoral votes
Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD): 178 electoral votes
 
Against Generic Democrat on a good night:

Generic Democrat: 347 electoral votes
Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD): 191 electoral votes

I can come up with maps for a few of the non-Clinton candidates on neutral maps (my Hillary Clinton vs. Ben Carson map is about the same as Carson against a Generic Democrat on a bad night, but with Arkansas, Louisiana, and Kentucky added to Clinton's column).

Let's start with Biden, arguably the second most likely Democratic nominee after Clinton:

Vice President Joseph Biden (D-DE): 364 electoral votes
Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD): 174 electoral votes

Next, Elizabeth Warren. She is a weak general election candidate, but Carson is one of the few Republicans who would give her a chance to win:

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 332 electoral votes
Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD): 206 electoral votes

Kirsten Gillibrand is one of the stronger Democratic candidates in my opinion, and against Carson she would probably coast to becoming the first female president:

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 405 electoral votes
Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD): 133 electoral votes

Mark Warner would do slightly better than Gillibrand:

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY): 408 electoral votes
Dr. Benjamin Carson (R-MD): 130 electoral votes

[BaconBacon96]

I honestly think Carson could have a very good chance of winning if he became the GOP nominee. He'd be a very appealing candidate. He has a very unique background for a potential presidential contender. If he ran he could run on being a genuine Washington outsider, someone who knows what's wrong and how to fix it.

He could emphasize the economic situation, avoiding sensitive social issues and campaign on a style of "compassionate conservatism" that got Bush elected in 2000. 

 

[Mister Mets]

I don't think there's much of a chance of having him win a presidential primary since he doesn't have experience in leadership or in Washington. But if he were to win, it would suggest he has immense political talent.

Unless he runs a campaign entirely on appealing to the base's lowest common denominator. Then he might have trouble winning Oklahoma's electoral votes.

[Rockefeller GOP]

I know we are all religiously tied to the idea that the current, Obama era political climate/landscape shall last forever, but there is NO scenario in which AZ, MT and ND go Democrat while AR and WV are over SIXTY PERCENT GOP!!

[Never]

I know we are all religiously tied to the idea that the current, Obama era political climate/landscape shall last forever, but there is NO scenario in which AZ, MT and ND go Democrat while AR and WV are over SIXTY PERCENT GOP!!

Never mind that Arkansas and West Virginia were already trending right before Obama was president? That, and people sometimes forget to change the percentage of the state when they're making seven election maps.

[Rockefeller GOP]

I know we are all religiously tied to the idea that the current, Obama era political climate/landscape shall last forever, but there is NO scenario in which AZ, MT and ND go Democrat while AR and WV are over SIXTY PERCENT GOP!!

Never mind that Arkansas and West Virginia were already trending right before Obama was president? That, and people sometimes forget to change the percentage of the state when they're making seven election maps.

They were trending right, sure, but not really locally until Obama was in office.  Democrats dominated their races even in 2010.  IMO, it's incredibly more likely that they swing back toward Democrats with a non-Obama (and especially Clinton) nominee than it is for them to go the way of Idaho and Wyoming...

[Never]

I know we are all religiously tied to the idea that the current, Obama era political climate/landscape shall last forever, but there is NO scenario in which AZ, MT and ND go Democrat while AR and WV are over SIXTY PERCENT GOP!!

Never mind that Arkansas and West Virginia were already trending right before Obama was president? That, and people sometimes forget to change the percentage of the state when they're making seven election maps.

They were trending right, sure, but not really locally until Obama was in office.  Democrats dominated their races even in 2010.  IMO, it's incredibly more likely that they swing back toward Democrats with a non-Obama (and especially Clinton) nominee than it is for them to go the way of Idaho and Wyoming...

That's a good point, but if the presidential electorate is continues moving to the right, Republicans might still be able to lose nationally by a significant margin and still win decisively in West Virginia and Arkansas. Granted, they might not win at least 60% of the vote, so I'll try to edit my maps accordingly. 

[Mr. Morden]

Would be fun to see the trend map between 2012 (black Democrat vs. white Republican) and 2016 (black Republican vs. white Democrat).

[Free Bird]

Would be fun to see the trend map between 2012 (black Democrat vs. white Republican) and 2016 (black Republican vs. white Democrat).

White male Democrat would be even better

[henster]

He would probably be the most inexperienced Presidential candidate in decades with little to no government or business experience to tout he's more of a congressional candidate than Presidential.

[Free Bird]

He would probably be the most inexperienced Presidential candidate in decades with little to no government or business experience to tout he's more of a congressional candidate than Presidential.

cough cough

[Dixie Reborn]

What exactly has Carson accomplished?

[Free Bird]

What exactly has Carson accomplished?

Make Obama look a little scared and generate thunderous applause at CPAC

[IceSpear]

What exactly has Carson accomplished?

Make Obama look a little scared and generate thunderous applause at CPAC

The fact that this makes the Republican base think he's worthy of ascending to the presidency is an extremely sad statement about modern politics.

[Suburbia]

Former Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland: 373 EV
Dr. Benjamin Carson of Maryland: 165 EV

This is how an O'Malley-Carson ticket would play out in my opinion. O'Malley has weaknesses, but he could beat Carson.

[henster]

He would probably be the most inexperienced Presidential candidate in decades with little to no government or business experience to tout he's more of a congressional candidate than Presidential.

cough cough

Obama was a state Senator for 7 years then a US Senator for 4 years while Carson has had no experience in government what so ever he's not even a businessman either.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Carson isn't going to lose Missouri or Georgia. Just because he is a black Republican doesn't mean he is Herman Cain or Allen West. He is actually very well spoken. That being said, there still is no chance in hell of him winning the nomination or the White House.

[solarstorm]

I wonder how Carson would appeal to African Americans and to withe racists.
If he runs against a Southern Democrat (say Clinton), he might even lose Mississippi, which has been trending (media) blue for a long time.
The election map would look odd ...

[IceSpear]

I wonder how Carson would appeal to African Americans and to withe racists.
If he runs against a Southern Democrat (say Clinton), he might even lose Mississippi, which has been trending (media) blue for a long time.
The election map would look odd ...

I don't think racists would have a problem voting for a black person as long as they disowned their own race.

[Never]

I wonder how Carson would appeal to African Americans and to withe racists.
If he runs against a Southern Democrat (say Clinton), he might even lose Mississippi, which has been trending (media) blue for a long time.
The election map would look odd ...

I wouldn't say that Carson would lose Mississippi; perhaps increased black support for him relative to other Republicans could counteract his loss in white support to a degree, similar to how Sen. Thad Cochran was assisted by increased black support. Most deeply Republican Southern states would be closer than they are now in a Carson vs. Clinton matchup, but I would expect Mississippi and Alabama at the very least to be Carson victories.