Would Obama win a third term?

[tonyreyes89]

Hypothetically thinking (No term limit repealed/Hillary doesn't run) , in the 2016 climate could Obama win a third term? And if we're expecting the usual suspects from the GOP (Christie, Rubio, Paul, Ryan, Walker, Romney?) who could win? Discuss with maps if you wish.
 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think he'd probably win by less than his 2012 margin.

[King]

Probably. This term would be a lot different if Obama knew he was competing for a third.

It would probably boost Romney's chances of winning the nomination again with Rematch Fever.

[Maxwell]

He might lose, though I'd say he's a very skilled campaigner, so I have no idea.

[BaconBacon96]

Depends on the candidate. If it was Mitt Romney, he most likely wouldn't but if it was someone more extreme I imagine he would.

[SWE]

Probably.

[Consciously Unconscious]

If his term followed the path it has in real life, I doubt it.  If he did some things differently, perhaps. 

[Never]

It does depend on the set of circumstances surrounding the election, but in general I suspect that Obama would lose if he were up for a third term in 2016. The Republican nominee is also a significant factor. Romney would probably dispatch Obama, as would Paul and Walker, but Rubio and Ryan would have a difficult time doing so, and Christie probably couldn't defeat the president.

A CNN poll asking how Romney would fare in a rematch against Obama shows him winning decisively, but if Obama and Romney were actually running again, the election would probably be fairly close. Romney could win with about 51% of the vote or so, a mirror image of Obama's 2012 popular vote victory.

[pbrower2a]

He's a shrewd a campaigner as any that we have seen since FDR.  He could turn an approval rating in the 43% area into 50% of the vote, which would win. He would run against an unpopular Congress.

Obviously he is doing nothing to shore up his approval ratings in an attempt at an impossible third term.

Obviously the 22nd Amendment is not going to be altered until someone the Republicans can tamper with the electoral process and the President is in fact a dictator with a huge personality cult on the assumption that two terms are not enough for such a glorious leader  against whom any dissent is treasonable.   

[Blue3]

I wonder, since some people here brought it up, what Obama would be doing differently if there were no term limits and he was running for a third term.

[Never]

I wonder, since some people here brought it up, what Obama would be doing differently if there were no term limits and he was running for a third term.

[Free Bird]

Don't give MSNBC any ideas, guys

[Skill and Chance]

He is better at winning the electoral college than Hillary Clinton. Colorado can be won much easier by the President of the United States than by Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama running for a third term hypothetically means he would spend time I think in Virginia and North Carolina and Florida and Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Obama would likely lose.  Not with certainty, because the economy may keep picking up, but he would likely lose for a 3rd term if he were eligible. 

Not sure about the Clinton comparison.  It looks like Florida could come in left of the nation in 2016 if she runs, which would make up for a lot of other weaknesses.

[NHI]

√ Mitt Romney: 296 (52%)

Barack Obama: 242 (46%)

[IceSpear]

Probably not, but he wouldn't be in as deep a hole as his approval ratings currently suggest.

[andrew_c]

It would depend on who the GOP candidate is.  In the current political climate, it is quite possible for Obama to win again, since Democrats can win the electoral college even if they lose the popular vote. 

[KCDem]

√ Mitt Romney: 296 (52%)

Barack Obama: 242 (46%)

Romney wouldn't win Pennsylvania against Barack Obama in any scenario. LOL

[Jerseyrules]

Probably something like this; I figure a 2% swing to Romney is reasonable

Obama: 272 (49.1%)
Romney: 266 (49.2%)

So while Romney actually wins the PV by nearly 130,000 votes, Obama manages a victory in the electoral college by pulling off narrow margins of victory in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado.  I wonder if we'd see a repeat of 2000.  Would Romney concede defeat or fight it?

[SPC]

Mirror image of the 2012 results.

[Mr. Illini]

vs. Generic R

294 / 244

[GOON]

If his second-term in this hypothetical situation ended up going down the same path as it currently is in-real life, then I could see him being extraordinarily vulnerable, especially if the United States' eventual return to Iraq ends up unpopular and we end up having to put boots on the ground, I could see Rand Paul trouncing him and flipping states like Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan, Wisconsin and perhaps even Pennsylvania.  This would be the perfect storm for the GOP, since Rand Paul is currently on the right-side of many of the issues that are currently plaguing Barack Obama's second-term, along with other issues that could bring over some of the youth and minority voters.

Mitt Romney would be the other guy who could defeat a third-term seeking Barack Obama, but it would probably be much closer than a Rand Paul-Barack Obama election would be, if only because Romney doesn't have the potential appeal that could bring some of the youth and minority vote to his side, which Rand Paul currently possesses.  I'd do a map for both, but I'll need nineteen more posts

Despite his tumultuous second-term, Obama would still beat people like Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, etc.  Most of that is due to the fact that Democrats only have to win a few swing-states to get to 270, along with the fact that the guys mentioned above appeal to really nobody outside of their core supporters.  Perhaps you could make the case that Christie has cross-over appeal, but his own party doesn't even like him, which would make it p. hard to win the nomination in the first place.  Candidates like Santorum and Perry are niche-candidates, whilst nobody seems to care about Marco Rubio anymore.

[New_Conservative]

No way. Only reason why I say this is because Obama's approval is pretty terrible (high 30s, low 40s) and some polls are saying that some of the electorate thinks that Romney would have done a better job than Obama.

I also think that it is close to impossible for a President to win a third term no matter who is running.

[Bigby]

Does Obama act like first term Obama since he still has to run for re-election? That factor is your biggest bet. The next factor is who the GOP runs. If it's Mitt Romney again, forget it for the GOP; it'd be 2012 on a re-run. And finally, the two-term tradition MIGHT hamper Obama's chances of success. I know old politicial traditions are fading, but certain ones such a those will likely stay alive for the time being.

(Not that it matters OTL since the 22nd Amendment is still in place.)

[SingingAnalyst]

Let's say it's Obama/Webb vs. Bush/Rubio:

No 3rd term, but it's close.

Obama 252 EV / 48%
Bush 286 EV / 50%

[Sir Mohamed]

He would win it, just without Florida this time (probably he would pick up North Carolina instead; it was close in 2012 and Hillary leads all polls in the state):

Barack Obama (inc.)/Martin Heinrich: 303 EV. (51%)
Jeb Bush/Scott Walker: 235 EV. (48%)