Keaton House Polling: October 2014 Presidential

[Adam Griffin]

BRB PMing all my friends to vote in this too

Non-Labor in all situations.

Please, guys! Save the platform discussions for your respective threads!

[Adam Griffin]

BRB PMing all my friends to vote in this too

Non-Labor in all situations.

Please, guys! Save the platform discussions for your respective threads!

It's interesting to watch you not know what to do about this.

I just told you - I need to PM all my guys to vote in these polls.

Do you seriously think one of your guys is going to do twenty points better than Duke did as an incumbent against Labor's most incendiary member? If so:

Seek psychiatric help.

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, literally no one (as far as I'm aware) thinks that Atlasia polls are remotely accurate. The left always under-performs in them. The sample set is always going to be radically different to the actual electorate and there's nothing much that can be done about that without some absurdly complicated system.

e: I do appreciate the inclusion of my all-time finest post though.

Of course, but as a nerd who loves monitoring polls and loves this game, I've enough experience to know when someone is ginning them by PMing people, which is sad on both my and Riley's accounts.

[Adam Griffin]

But it's worth pointing out that the polls are still usually much closer than this, and I doubt what we're seeing is a complete anomaly, especially after the midterm rout.

I won't be a hypocrite and deny you the verbiage of talking about your mandate or whatever, but you do know that:

a) You guys were 4 votes away from not changing anything in the past election
b) The left still outvoted the right

[Adam Griffin]

Adam, literally no one (as far as I'm aware) thinks that Atlasia polls are remotely accurate. The left always under-performs in them. The sample set is always going to be radically different to the actual electorate and there's nothing much that can be done about that without some absurdly complicated system.

e: I do appreciate the inclusion of my all-time finest post though.

Of course, but as a nerd who loves monitoring polls and loves this game, I've enough experience to know when someone is ginning them by PMing people, which is sad on both my and Riley's accounts.

Yeah, I do think there's an important distinction to be made with polls like approval ratings or whatever vs. election results. The active population is massively different to the electorate at large, mostly due to the simple mathematics of the Atlas demographics. So you'd end up with a situation where Napoleon had 10% approval or something (active population) and yet won a Senate seat at the end of his presidency (general population). It's tricky to navigate because it's probably more important on a meta-level to take into consideration the concerns of the active populace, but that can often be ignored by, uh, virtually everyone, because they're only a fraction of the voters.

I don't see a real solution to that. Anti-zombie legislation is utterly unworkable and would probably kill the game, actually. Atlasia survives as pretty much the only half-functioning political simulation I'm aware of precisely because it has a large number of people who vote who aren't officeholders.

And yes, gold next time please. It'd even be appropriate for some DRs.

I dunno. In a lot of recent elections, I've noticed similar preferences in polling and results - so long as there's at least 30-40 organic responses. I'm not sure the inflation makes much of a difference in the end.

[Adam Griffin]

Who the hell bothers to PM people to vote in a poll?

I'm pretty sure we know Atlasian polling is bollocks.

Sad, indeed. But those who think I'm simply grasping for straws probably haven't paid attention to the dynamics of polling on this board enough. There's an expected rate of organic responses you'll receive in a certain time period, with some obvious deviation. For a number to be three times that when first observed relative to its opening, and skewed even more than expected, indicates someone was pushing responses through an outside source. It could be PM, it could be IRC, or hell, maybe even AOL - but yes, bollocks one and all. 'Tis a shame some people don't put as much time into public service as they do this sort of thing.

[Adam Griffin]

FTR - I don't keep track of these things to call shenanigans. You might well be right, but it's still a sad thing to do lol.

I wasn't PM'd nor was I asked during the time I was in IRC...

Only when a blatant anomaly presents itself does it ever cross my radar - like how this poll got as many responses in its first hour as this one with actual discussion managed to get during a three-day span mostly coinciding with the election.