tmthforu94
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,402
Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: -4.52
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« on: August 30, 2014, 06:59:28 PM » |
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Brownback actually improved by 20 points among Republicans and 11 points among Independents compared to their July poll. The difference is weighting - looks to me like they are overweighting Democrats and underweighting Independents. They have it at 32% Democratic and 18% Independent, when in reality there are actually substantially more Independents than Democrats in Kansas.
I'm not trying to suggest Brownback is ahead, but I don't think it is an 8 point race. 3-4 would be my guess, and I expect a very close race on Election Day.
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