Waiting for the 538 real model about Senate and Governor races...

[dmmidmi]

This new 538 is really made of fail. And I say this as one of Nate's earliest fans.

Are you only saying that because it doesn't show Democrats to have an advantage?

I think he's saying that because the new 538 has still not launched their official model of the 2014 midterm elections - yet they still have time to run articles about the statistical accuracy of tarot readers and the effects of binge-watching the Simpsons on the human brain.

Election forecasting and predictions is what made Mr. Silver famous--whether or not he realizes it, that is what his appeal is built upon. Instead, he's traveling the country to find America's Best Burrito.

[dmmidmi]

This new 538 is really made of fail. And I say this as one of Nate's earliest fans.

Are you only saying that because it doesn't show Democrats to have an advantage?

I think he's saying that because the new 538 has still not launched their official model of the 2014 midterm elections - yet they still have time to run articles about the statistical accuracy of tarot readers and the effects of binge-watching the Simpsons on the human brain.

And sports, which none of his early friends care about

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2659

[dmmidmi]

Personally, I find 538's current set articles way more interesting than yet another update of "who do we think is gonna win today!!!!1"

Agreed.  The World Cup series was fantastic.

538 needs a sports section, and it definitely needs a Life/Science section.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/sports/

They have an affiliation with ESPN--even though most of the FiveThirtyEight articles probably fly over the heads of a large share of ESPN's viewership.

Their sports section could probably be stronger--Nate first got people's attention by developing PECOTA, and has repeatedly exhibited that he's incredibly knowledgeable about baseball. However, their NFL season previews are pretty thorough, as was their article about Tim Duncan's value to the Spurs over the course of his career.

But, articles about measuring the speed of NFL teams, and then going on to say that it really isn't all that important, is kind of a head-scratcher.