How can anyone say the GOP isn't favored to win the Senate?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I tend to agree, Del.  The GOP is clearly favored in LA, GA, and AR, although I concede that any one of those could go Democratic.  And IA, CO, NC, and AK are all pretty close to 50/50--and the GOP only needs one.  It isn't over yet, but it would really take something extraordinary for Democrats to sweep the field and keep their majority.

My hunch is actually that it really could be a stunningly good night for the GOP.  Instead of two years ago when we were all marveling at how well Obama did in places like Florida and Virginia, I suspect that we'll be talking about the GOP doing exceptionally well in places that a lot of people thought they'd lose.

Only Republican hacks were marveling at how well Obama did in Virginia. It was obvious he was going to win there.

Obama's pre-election average lead there, per RCP, was a pathetic 0.3%. Far from 'obvious winner' in my opinion. True, he greatly outperformed the polling on election day, but before the polls closed, Obama was not the 'obvious winner' in virginia.

I didn't think Romney would win Florida. My prediction of the election, like 99% of non-troll/hack Atlas posters was 100% correct because we believe in polls over voodoo.

The RCP polling average showed Romney winning FL by 1.4%.....this was the one state where the polls as a whole got the winner wrong. Heck, Obama's campaign as a whole was so much in belief that FL was likely to go to Romney that they were trying to get Obama to give up on FL in the final weeks. Instead, he essentially said "No, let's keep running ads there, I'll send Biden there, at least we can keep Romney spending time and money there.", and ended up winning FL by about 70,000 votes, mainly due to Romney having a terrible GOTV operation that broke down on election day.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Seriously.  Republicans are favored at this point to win in MT, SD, AR, LA, and WV.  That put them up to 50 seats, with them only having to pick-up one seat between NC, IA, CO, and AK (which seem like the most promising pickup opportunities).  Moreover, Republicans are heavy favorites to retain seats in GA and KY. 

How can anyone say that the GOP isn't favored to win in 2014 with a map and electorate that is heavily in their favor as well as a strong class of candidates poised to avoid the same pitfalls of 2012?

Yes, they are favored to win the five races you mentioned, though in AR and LA they are not strongly favored, and in LA they are barely favored at all, as my averages show a rather small lead for Cassidy of only 0.75%. You seem to treat AR and LA as if they are close to Safe R, but they are not anywhere near that rating.

Also, republicans have not really obtained the status of heavy favorite in GA at this point, and in KY, McConnell's chance of victory is somewhere between 3 in 5 and 2 in 3 - not exactly 'heavy favorite' status....

Yes, I am predicting that the republicans would regain the senate if the election were held today, picking up 7 seats. But the democrats shouldn't be counted out on actually retaining it come November - a bad night for the GOP could easily yield a GOP net gain of as little as 3 seats. Similarly, a particularly good night for the GOP could easily yield a GOP net gain of 10 seats, possibly even 11 or 12.

 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's no use arguing with them. If things don't go their way, they will just disappear like several overconfident Republicans posters did after 2012. Or they will claim the Republican candidates that they praised were just crappy or not conservative enough to win.

^^^exactly. Every election we get a wave of new right-wing hack posters on this forum who think the Republicans are going to win every race, that Colorado is still a tossup swing-state, this forum is full of Democratic hacks, etc. And then the election comes, it turns out they were completely wrong, and they never post here again.

Colorado is still a swing state. The republicans would have won there in 2010 if they hadn't been so stupid in nominating Ken Buck. Hillary Clinton is statistically tied in early polling, even trailing in some cases. Both Hickenlooper and Udall are in toss-up races.