How can anyone say the GOP isn't favored to win the Senate?

[dmmidmi]

Seriously.  Republicans are favored at this point to win in MT, SD, AR, LA, and WV. 

"Favored" is the operative word here. One could make the argument that they aren't even favored in Arkansas and Louisiana.

That put them up to 50 seats, with them only having to pick-up one seat between NC, IA, CO, and AK (which seem like the most promising pickup opportunities). 

Yeah, but they'll actually have to win one of those seats--which is far from a certainty.

Moreover, Republicans are heavy favorites to retain seats in GA and KY.  

Yes, they are, and Democrats are favorites in the four races you identified in your previous sentence.

How can anyone say that the GOP isn't favored to win in 2014 with a map and electorate that is heavily in their favor as well as a strong class of candidates poised to avoid the same pitfalls of 2012?

Yes, their candidates this year, on the whole are probably stronger.

I see it this way: six Senate seats flipped in 2006 and 2010. In each of those years, one party had the benefit of a very favorable national environment. This year, that doesn't seem to be the case. We're not in any unpopular wars, there wasn't a horrendous response to a natural disaster, nor was a very divisive piece of legislation passed along party lines.

Six seats is a lot of seats to flip in a year where the national mood barely favors one party over another.

[dmmidmi]

This forum has more Democrats than Republicans. Therefore, they/it has a way too optimistic outlook for Democrats. Just as Breitbart and Redstate overstate Republican possibilities.

This forum on the whole underestimated Barack Obama's performance in 2012: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php

Democrats in the 2012 US Senate: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php

Democrats in the 2010 US Senate: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2010/pred.php

and Barack Obama's performance in 2008: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php

So, no, the forum on the whole does not have "a way too optimistic outlook for Democrats."

[dmmidmi]

This forum has more Democrats than Republicans. Therefore, they/it has a way too optimistic outlook for Democrats. Just as Breitbart and Redstate overstate Republican possibilities.

This forum on the whole underestimated Barack Obama's performance in 2012: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php

Democrats in the 2012 US Senate: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2012/pred.php

Democrats in the 2010 US Senate: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2010/pred.php

and Barack Obama's performance in 2008: https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php

So, no, the forum on the whole does not have "a way too optimistic outlook for Democrats."

By default they are because there's more Democrats. And I think they underestimated Obama because everyone thought Romney would win Florida.

I just showed you that the forum underestimates Democratic performance. What part of this is hard to understand?

When "everybody" thinks Romney is going to win Florida, "everybody" is underestimating Democratic performance.

So when someone (you) says, "The forum overestimates Democratic chances/performance because there are more Democrats," they are ignoring facts.

[dmmidmi]

I just showed you that the forum underestimates Democratic performance. What part of this is hard to understand?

When "everybody" thinks Romney is going to win Florida, "everybody" is underestimating Democratic performance.

So when someone (you) says, "The forum overestimates Democratic chances/performance because there are more Democrats," they are ignoring facts.

That doesn't change the fact that, as Del said, Republicans are favored in at least five races, and have excellent opportunities in many more, yet most Democrats on this forum still say that Democrats are likely to retain the Senate.

Whatever, dude. If you feel like ignoring all other evidence (i.e. "the forum" tends to overstate Republican performance), and go with your gut feeling, fine by me.

[dmmidmi]

I tend to agree, Del.  The GOP is clearly favored in LA, GA, and AR, although I concede that any one of those could go Democratic.  And IA, CO, NC, and AK are all pretty close to 50/50--and the GOP only needs one.  It isn't over yet, but it would really take something extraordinary for Democrats to sweep the field and keep their majority.

My hunch is actually that it really could be a stunningly good night for the GOP.  Instead of two years ago when we were all marveling at how well Obama did in places like Florida and Virginia, I suspect that we'll be talking about the GOP doing exceptionally well in places that a lot of people thought they'd lose.

Only Republican hacks were marveling at how well Obama did in Virginia. It was obvious he was going to win there.

Obama's pre-election average lead there, per RCP, was a pathetic 0.3%. Far from 'obvious winner' in my opinion. True, he greatly outperformed the polling on election day, but before the polls closed, Obama was not the 'obvious winner' in virginia.

I didn't think Romney would win Florida. My prediction of the election, like 99% of non-troll/hack Atlas posters was 100% correct because we believe in polls over voodoo.

The RCP polling average showed Romney winning FL by 1.4%.....this was the one state where the polls as a whole got the winner wrong. Heck, Obama's campaign as a whole was so much in belief that FL was likely to go to Romney that they were trying to get Obama to give up on FL in the final weeks. Instead, he essentially said "No, let's keep running ads there, I'll send Biden there, at least we can keep Romney spending time and money there.", and ended up winning FL by about 70,000 votes, mainly due to Romney having a terrible GOTV operation that broke down on election day.

Maybe you shouldn't take your cues from a website that will willingly include Republican internals, but discard Democratic internals.