How can anyone say the GOP isn't favored to win the Senate?

[King]

I didn't think Romney would win Florida. My prediction of the election, like 99% of non-troll/hack Atlas posters was 100% correct because we believe in polls over voodoo.

[King]

I tend to agree, Del.  The GOP is clearly favored in LA, GA, and AR, although I concede that any one of those could go Democratic.  And IA, CO, NC, and AK are all pretty close to 50/50--and the GOP only needs one.  It isn't over yet, but it would really take something extraordinary for Democrats to sweep the field and keep their majority.

My hunch is actually that it really could be a stunningly good night for the GOP.  Instead of two years ago when we were all marveling at how well Obama did in places like Florida and Virginia, I suspect that we'll be talking about the GOP doing exceptionally well in places that a lot of people thought they'd lose.

Only Republican hacks were marveling at how well Obama did in Virginia. It was obvious he was going to win there.

Obama's pre-election average lead there, per RCP, was a pathetic 0.3%. Far from 'obvious winner' in my opinion. True, he greatly outperformed the polling on election day, but before the polls closed, Obama was not the 'obvious winner' in virginia.

I didn't think Romney would win Florida. My prediction of the election, like 99% of non-troll/hack Atlas posters was 100% correct because we believe in polls over voodoo.

The RCP polling average showed Romney winning FL by 1.4%.....this was the one state where the polls as a whole got the winner wrong. Heck, Obama's campaign as a whole was so much in belief that FL was likely to go to Romney that they were trying to get Obama to give up on FL in the final weeks. Instead, he essentially said "No, let's keep running ads there, I'll send Biden there, at least we can keep Romney spending time and money there.", and ended up winning FL by about 70,000 votes, mainly due to Romney having a terrible GOTV operation that broke down on election day.

Well, you also have to show discernment on polls. Many of us were also knowledgeable enough to dump known garbage like Gravis, Insider Advantage, and Rasmussen. Focusing mainly on PPP, Ipsos, and Quinnipiac it was clear that Florida was Obama +1 and Virginia was Obama +4, as it was.