Sean Trende: Will 2014 Midterms Be a Wave Election?
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  Sean Trende: Will 2014 Midterms Be a Wave Election?
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Author Topic: Sean Trende: Will 2014 Midterms Be a Wave Election?  (Read 362 times)
Never
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« on: August 28, 2014, 11:10:39 AM »
« edited: August 28, 2014, 11:13:35 AM by Never »

According to Trende, it's possible, but it's probably too soon to tell. For one, there have been some races in which the wave did not show major signs of developing in Senate races around late August:

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Interestingly, Trende also claims that an election could be called a wave when a party gains six seats. I disagree with that, but his reasoning for the claim was useful.

He notes that while Republicans do have a chance in races like Alaska and Colorado because the Democratic incumbents are both under 50% in the polls, the undecided voters should not be expected to swing heavily against the incumbent.

While Trende drove home his arguments about how a Republican wave could happen, he did assess the claims that countered this, and found them to be plausible:

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Overall, I thought this was a solid article.
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SWE
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« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2014, 11:28:30 AM »

It won't be
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Never
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2014, 11:36:17 AM »


I'm pretty sure Trende said that there was about a 30% chance of a Republican wave, so it's unlikely, but not out of the question just yet. It also depends on what we're defining a wave as.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2014, 11:41:40 AM »

For me, the question is whether a Republican would win narrowly in an open-seat race for Senate in a state like Illinois, Oregon, or Massachusetts. Too early to say for sure but it certainly looks like no.
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