What would the Senate map look like if no incumbents were retiring this year?

[JRP1994]

• No special election in OK
• Mike Johanns runs in NE
• Max Baucus runs in MT
• Tim Johnson runs in SD
• Jay Rockefeller runs in WV
• Carl Levin runs in MI
• Tom Harkin runs in IA
• Saxby Chambliss runs in GA

Thoughts?

[Senator Cris]

- NE --> Safe R
- MT --> Toss-Up
- SD --> Lean R
- WV --> Toss-Up/Tilt R
- MI --> Solid D
- IA --> Likely D
- GA --> Lean R

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NE - Safe R
MT - Toss-Up/Tilt D
SD - Toss-Up/Tilt R
WV - Toss-Up/Tilt D
MI - Solid D
IA - Solid D
GA - This one is tricky, because Chambliss would have received a primary challenge from somebody. If he had been defeated by a tea partier, Lean D. If he had been defeated by a moderate, Lean R. If he survived his primary, Likely R.

[Never]

NE - Safe R
MT - Tilt D
SD - Tilt R
WV - Tossup
MI - Solid D
IA - Likely D
GA - Likely R

[Miles]

- NE --> Safe R
- MT --> Toss-Up
- SD --> Lean R
- WV --> Toss-Up/Tilt R
- MI --> Solid D
- IA --> Likely D
- GA --> Lean R

[IceSpear]

NE: Safe R
MT: Lean R (Wasn't Baucus' approval rating in the toilet?)
SD: Toss Up/Tilt R
WV: Toss Up/Tilt R
MI: Safe D
IA: Likely D
GA: Likely R

[SWE]

NE: Safe R
MT: Lean R (Wasn't Baucus' approval rating in the toilet?)
SD: Toss Up/Tilt R
WV: Toss Up/Tilt R
MI: Safe D
IA: Likely D
GA: Likely R

[Del Tachi]

NE - Safe R
MT - Toss-Up/Tilt D
SD - Toss-Up/Tilt R
WV - Lean D
MI - Solid D
IA - Solid D
GA - Lean R

[Brittain33]

I think MT would have been Lean D. Montana voters are pretty elastic and he's survived before.

[Niemeyerite]

NE - Safe R
MT - Toss-Up/Tilt D
SD - Toss-Up/Tilt R
WV - Lean D
MI - Solid D
IA - Solid D
GA - Lean R

Switch MT and SD and that's what I think.

[Indy Texas]

• No special election in OK
• Mike Johanns runs in NE
• Max Baucus runs in MT
• Tim Johnson runs in SD
• Jay Rockefeller runs in WV
• Carl Levin runs in MI
• Tom Harkin runs in IA
• Saxby Chambliss runs in GA

Thoughts?

NE: no change; still safe R
MT: D favored
SD: Johnson would be another hanging-on-for-dear-life Democrat like Pryor/Landrieu/Hagan; Toss-Up
WV: Capito likely wouldn't have run if it wasn't an open seat; Rockefeller would pretty easily win; D Favored against Generic West Virginia Republican
MI: D favored
IA: D favored
GA: Safe R

[KCDem]

NE - Safe R
MT - Tossup
SD - Tossup
WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running)
MI - Solid D
IA - Solid D
GA - Likely R

[GaussLaw]

WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running)

Capito announced before Jay retired, IIRC.  Jay was very vulnerable in early polling.

[KCDem]

WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running)

Capito announced before Jay retired, IIRC.  Jay was very vulnerable in early polling.

She announced right after he announced his retirement. If Rockefeller hadn't retired, and there hadn't been the impression of him wanting to retire (coal speech, etc), she wouldn't have ran. Capito is a cautious politician and wouldn't have wanted to enter a chancy race. Lean D because we don't know if McKinley would have given it a shot.

[Never]

WV - Lean D (Capito wouldn't be running)

Capito announced before Jay retired, IIRC.  Jay was very vulnerable in early polling.

She announced right after he announced his retirement. If Rockefeller hadn't retired, and there hadn't been the impression of him wanting to retire (coal speech, etc), she wouldn't have ran. Capito is a cautious politician and wouldn't have wanted to enter a chancy race. Lean D because we don't know if McKinley would have given it a shot.

Capito started running well before Rockefeller retired.

Shelly Moore Capito announced her candidacy on November 26, 2012.

Senator Rockefeller didn't announce his retirement until January 11, 2013.