538: Walker Still Favored in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race

[Never]

Harry Enten argues in his new article that despite Marquette University's Law School poll showing Burke ahead with likely voters, Scott Walker is still favored to win re-election in Wisconsin's gubernatorial election. Enten holds the view that the registered voter poll showing Walker ahead by 3 points is probably more accurate than the likely voter sample showing Burke ahead by 2. Enten also points out that Walker has a fundraising advantage with individual Wisconsinites, calling into question the implication from Marquette's poll that Burke's supporters are more enthusiastic and likelier to vote compared to Walker's.

[Maxwell]

Walker can still turn around his pretty bleh situation, but this race is a toss-up with no tilt now.

[Lief 🗽]

lol 538 is unskewing polls now?

[Never]

lol 538 is unskewing polls now?

So now it's the Democrats criticizing 538? What a big change from 2012

[backtored]

That more or less cuts against the grain of political common knowledge, whatever that is worth.  I certainly would like Walker to win, but he looks like he’s in a great deal of trouble.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am sure that we dont necessarily have to have Wi, but Walker, just like Rauner, bumped heads with unions, especially teachers, and Burke fits perfectly with the unions.

[IceSpear]

Wait just a second here. Haven't 538 (and most election prognosticators, for that matter) endlessly opined about how likely voter polls are more reliable than registered voter polls, especially when the election is ~2 months away? And yet now we're supposed to disregard that, just for this specific poll mind you, for what reason? Because of Harry Enten's gut feelings? Because it shows a Democrat doing better, and that "can't be right"?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait just a second here. Haven't 538 (and most election prognosticators, for that matter) endlessly opined about how likely voter polls are more reliable than registered voter polls, especially when the election is ~2 months away? And yet now we're supposed to disregard that, just for this specific poll mind you, for what reason? Because of Harry Enten's gut feelings? Because it shows a Democrat doing better, and that "can't be right"?

Read the article. With this specific pollster, Marquette University, there is no conclusive evidence that its likely voter screen consistently makes it more accurate.

Plus, republicans clearly have an enthusiasm advantage this cycle, and midterm election turnout is ALWAYS lower than presidential election turnout regardless of whether a gubernatorial election exists or not in a given state, and the lower the turnout is, the likelier a republican victory becomes.

[IceSpear]

Wait just a second here. Haven't 538 (and most election prognosticators, for that matter) endlessly opined about how likely voter polls are more reliable than registered voter polls, especially when the election is ~2 months away? And yet now we're supposed to disregard that, just for this specific poll mind you, for what reason? Because of Harry Enten's gut feelings? Because it shows a Democrat doing better, and that "can't be right"?

Read the article. With this specific pollster, Marquette University, there is no conclusive evidence that its likely voter screen consistently makes it more accurate.

Plus, republicans clearly have an enthusiasm advantage this cycle, and midterm election turnout is ALWAYS lower than presidential election turnout regardless of whether a gubernatorial election exists or not in a given state, and the lower the turnout is, the likelier a republican victory becomes.

So likely voter polls are always better, except when they aren't. Well, that's certainly handy. Just the type of cogent and thought provoking analysis I can expect from neo-538.

Sarcasm aside, why is it that we're only starting to see pollster-specific registered vs. likely voter comparisons now that one shows a Democrat outperforming? It seems until now, everyone was fine with peddling the "likely voters are always better" conventional wisdom. You're taking it for granted that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats in Wisconsin, but Marquette says otherwise.

[IceSpear]

In May, Marquette showed Walker leading 48-45 among likely voters but tied 46-46 among registered voters. Why did we not see a 538 article then about how this race is a true toss up, since Marquette's registered voter samples are presumably more reliable?

[KCDem]

Wait just a second here. Haven't 538 (and most election prognosticators, for that matter) endlessly opined about how likely voter polls are more reliable than registered voter polls, especially when the election is ~2 months away? And yet now we're supposed to disregard that, just for this specific poll mind you, for what reason? Because of Harry Enten's gut feelings? Because it shows a Democrat doing better, and that "can't be right"?

Read the article. With this specific pollster, Marquette University, there is no conclusive evidence that its likely voter screen consistently makes it more accurate.

Plus, republicans clearly have an enthusiasm advantage this cycle, and midterm election turnout is ALWAYS lower than presidential election turnout regardless of whether a gubernatorial election exists or not in a given state, and the lower the turnout is, the likelier a republican victory becomes.

So likely voter polls are always better, except when they aren't. Well, that's certainly handy. Just the type of cogent and thought provoking analysis I can expect from neo-538.

Sarcasm aside, why is it that we're only starting to see pollster-specific registered vs. likely voter comparisons now that one shows a Democrat outperforming? It seems until now, everyone was fine with peddling the "likely voters are always better" conventional wisdom. You're taking it for granted that Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats in Wisconsin, but Marquette says otherwise.

But Democrats are doomed....DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!

[Lief 🗽]

In May, Marquette showed Walker leading 48-45 among likely voters but tied 46-46 among registered voters. Why did we not see a 538 article then about how this race is a true toss up, since Marquette's registered voter samples are presumably more reliable?

Yup. 538 is increasingly becoming a concern troll joke website.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In May, Marquette showed Walker leading 48-45 among likely voters but tied 46-46 among registered voters. Why did we not see a 538 article then about how this race is a true toss up, since Marquette's registered voter samples are presumably more reliable?

Yup. 538 is increasingly becoming a concern troll joke website.

But 538 is always right. Brazil didn't do bad against Germany. And Senator Rick Berg R-ND is doing great.

[bedstuy]

The real question is why the Marquette law school is in charge of polling.  I would turn that over to the stats department or poli sci. 

Seriously, this article is bunk.  Maybe Walker supporters are more enthusiastic.  Maybe the registered voter pool is more accurate.  Maybe the poll is off a little bit.  It's all speculation without solid evidence.

I think it's smart to just leave it at, it's a tossup where anything can happen.  Nobody has started paying attention to the election yet anyway.  People are recovering from their summer trip to their lake house or whatever.  School just started.  Midterm elections really take shape after Labor day once people are done with summer and ready for NFL, sweaters and politics. 

[pbrower2a]

Walker is slipping. He is getting much publicity -- but it is all bad publicity. He has hit his ceiling, and when the Democrats get organized (which they typically do on Labor Day) they will sway some 'undecided' voters. An illiberal politician in a liberal state, he offends too many sensibilities to get more than a bare plurality in an election with depressed turnout.

It's the door-knocking campaign that works, and anyone with a liberal agenda can be swayed. Walker can be hammered on issues other than abuse of power -- education, unions, welfare, the environment, or gay rights. If one is a liberal democrat on a door-knocking campaign because one is primarily for keeping labor unions intact and finds that the couple that one encounters seem far more concerned with the legal acceptance of same-sex marriage (SSM) than with unions  then one discusses the homophobia within the Republican party and the resistance of GOP pols in Wisconsin to SSM.

Walker has united the base of the other side.