American Southwest Could Face Megadrought This Century

[Frodo]

Many of you living in the region may want to consider moving out...

Southwest may face 'megadrought' within century, study finds

Aug 26, 2014 by Blaine Friedlander

(Phys.org) —Due to global warming, scientists say, the chances of the southwestern United States experiencing a decade-long drought is at least 50 percent, and the chances of a "megadrought" – one that lasts up to 35 years – ranges from 20 to 50 percent over the next century.



The study by Cornell, University of Arizona and U.S. Geological Survey researchers will be published in a forthcoming issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate.

"For the southwestern U.S., I'm not optimistic about avoiding real megadroughts," said Toby Ault, Cornell assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and lead author of the paper. "As we add greenhouse gases into the atmosphere – and we haven't put the brakes on stopping this – we are weighting the dice for megadrought."
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Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-08-southwest-megadrought-century.html#jCp

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A 40% risk for California? I think that's good news at this point.

[angus]

Weird map.  There's a little rectangular gulf where the Berkshires and a good bit of southern New England used to be.  What happened to Cape Cod and Cape Ann?

[politicallefty]

Inland states seem to be screwed more than anybody else. The West Coast can tap into the ocean through desalination plants and they should. If it can be done in the Middle East, it can surely be done in this country. I do consider myself an environmentalist, but water needs take precedence and it can be done in a way to minimize any environmental costs. Ideally, California will have vast solar arrays that provide the energy for such plants; clean energy that produces clean water.

[Ban my account ffs!]

It could also be the wettest century since the last ice age. I wouldn't put much stock in these predictions stacked with mighty, maybes, and coulds.

[angus]

If it can be done in the Middle East, it can surely be done in this country.

Most of the Middle East isn't plagued by the pesky democratic process.  (Or at least it wasn't until recently, and I'm guessing that in those places that recently overthrew their repressive leaders there's some buyer's remorse.)  Here, we have to come together to do it.  We've become far too populated and vast an empire to function effectively as a democracy, and in any case big Public Works projects are the whipping children of those who favor austerity.  I just don't see large-scale desalination plants powerd by large-scale, solar-powered generators fetching much popular support any time in the near future.

Luckily, the vastness of our empire supports high mobility, and internal migration isn't particularly difficult.  We could see a drain on the population from the Southwest, and that may not be a bad thing since that region is already supporting far more inhabitants than is ecologically feasible.

[bedstuy]

Time to build this crazy thing.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Small surprise. We're not even supposed to be there, by my recollection of "King of the Hill".

[Ban my account ffs!]

Of course we can be there. Farming there is kinda dumb but people can live comfortably there using a little water very efficiently. Water recycling, desalination, and smart land use can make the desert one of the best environments for humans in the modern world.  All that extra water vapor currently being emitted in our deserts is dramatically changing the micro climates around the cities, however. Phoenix has seen a large rise in overnight low temperatures so that heat exhaustion at night is possible. Rather than cooling to 70 or75 by morning, some mornings don't get below 90. That is almost certainly a human caused change.