2020: Mark Kirk (R-IL) vs Hillary Clinton (D-NY)

[JRP1994]

Background

In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton defeated Republican candidate Rand Paul by a modest margin. Paul outperformed expectations and Clinton made a few missteps during the campaign, but not nearly enough to lose the election. Paul's nomination prompted Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson to withdraw from the race, and Paul performed well enough among libertarian voters to win back Colorado and New Hampshire. However, Paul's social libertarian views turned off some socially conservative southern voters, which cost him North Carolina and helped put Clinton over the top in an incredibly tight Arkansas race. Paul's economic views also alienated Hispanic voters, causing him to lose Arizona and Nevada.

2016 ELECTION RESULTS:

Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner: 351 EVs, 52.9%
Rand Paul/Kelly Ayotte: 187 EVs, 46.2%

2020

President Clinton and Vice President Warner are seeking re-election. Currently, President Clinton has a 49% approval rating. Having taken a huge gamble on Rand Paul which failed, Republicans are determined to nominate an electable candidate to win back the White House for the first time since 2008. They have nominated Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL), who managed to narrowly defeat Lisa Madigan in an upset win in 2016. Kirk followed the playbook of many moderate incumbents in 2014 by moving quickly to quell any Tea Party challenge, and wound up defeating Madigan by a 2% margin.

Kirk has selected as his running mate Nevada Senator Brian Sandoval, who became a rockstar among the GOP for finally defeating Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Current Polling Map: August 29, 2020

Clinton/Warner: 249
Kirk/Sandoval: 221

Teal = Tossup
30% = Lean
40% = Likely
60% = Safe

[OAM]

I will be watching.  Though I'm not so sure about that matchup in 16, I will give you points for having the most creative map of the election I've seen yet.  Most people seem to just repeat the same one over and over.

[Never]

This looks interesting. I can't wait to see how the election scenario progresses.

[Maxwell]

Can we get a little preview of how Mark Kirk got to be the Republican nominee for President?

[JRP1994]

Can we get a little preview of how Mark Kirk got to be the Republican nominee for President?

I haven't fleshed that portion of the back story out extensively yet, but much the same way that Romney did -- gained a strong foothold/frontrunner status due to the conservative/Tea Party vote being divided among 6 or 7 candidates, with Ted Cruz left as his final opponent by Super Tuesday. The race developed into a choice between rigid ideological purity and pragmatism, and Kirk was able to defeat Cruz in enough states to clinch the nomination.

[Person Man]

The Republicans are running a really moderate ticket, huh?

[Chips]

Going to assume that Clinton was the incumbent and that Mark Kirk somehow eked-out re-election against Duckworth. (Will assume he ran a much better campaign)



Mark Kirk: 316 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton: 222 electoral votes

Weird map, but Kirk being somewhat of a moderate and 3 Democratic terms in a row allow Kirk to win relatively easily. IL is competitive with Kirk only losing by 7 points while he finally brings MN in the fold for a Republican. Hillary barely holds PA, NH and VA though.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Arkansas going D in 2016 is woke.

[S019]

Well Arkansas and Ohio are almost surely going Republican (especially Arkansas), New Mexico is almost certainly going Democrat, so that gets you to 248-249, with FL and WI undecided and FL obviously deciding the presidency, Clinton being at 49% means she has probably handled COVID okay and probably also did an okay job handling the racial protests, also my guess is the Republican leads in NV/CO both collapse by September-October, and AZ flips around late October too. The Dem advantage in MI/PA remains but tightens, and ME-02 flips Republican very soon. So, Clinton should win, unless the Midwest trends heavily against her, given the undecideds in the Southwest are probably very pro-Clinton, especially in Colorado.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Arkansas going D in 2016 is woke.

very N U T also.