Katrina and Reapportionment

[muon2]

The US is over halfway to the next decennial Census and subsequent reapportionment. Each year, near the end of December, the Census puts out current estimates of state population. This can be used for projections to forecast the apportionment in 2010 as was done at this thread.

Based on those numbers, LA was only gaining 0.2% per year and could be expected to lose one seat in the 2010 reapportionment. Katrina will certainly have an effect on the population there, and there is likely to be a lingering effect through the next census. I've made some estimates of the impact of relocation of displaced persons, and lack of growth while reconstruction is at work over the next few years.

A simple model is to assume that some number of people who have been relocated out of state, choose to stay in their new locations. There are over 1 M people in the NOLA area, and over half live in the flooded parishes of Orleans, St. Bernard, and Plaquemines. My model assumes that some fraction choose to relcate out-of-state that are not replaced by new immigrants from other states. Also, the population that matters are those present on April 1, 2010.

If the net outflow is less than 250K, then LA will probably stay on its current projection of a loss of one seat in 2010. However, if the net outflow reaches 300K, then LA stands to lose a second seat. If no other state gains excessively the projections give that seat to CA, increasing its gain to +2.

However, the majority of displaced people have taken temporary residence in TX. If that holds up over the next five years, TX could find itself with an additional seat. My estimates are that about 150K people from LA need to end up in TX for that state to gain 4 rather than the currently projected 3 seats.

[angus]

I'd thought about that too.  And wondered if it would come up here.  Yes, we thought TX would gain 3, LA and AL break even, or LA lose one, and MS stay or maybe gain one since it lost one by rounding down last time. 

Katrina will have an effect.  I think TX will still gain 3, but depending on what percent of these folks stay there (they are society's dregs, by and large, and won't have much to return to), she may gain four.  LA will almost certainly loose one now.  MS?  Stay at 4 CD I'd guess.  Not much effect on AL. 

FL is another interesting case.  It was expected to gain 1 or 2.  But we've entered a time of intense and frequent storms.  And the decade's only half over.  Will be interesting to see if FL actually surpasses NY, as expected, in the next census.  It may not.

[patrick1]

FL is another interesting case.  It was expected to gain 1 or 2.  But we've entered a time of intense and frequent storms.  And the decade's only half over.  Will be interesting to see if FL actually surpasses NY, as expected, in the next census.  It may not.

Florida will still grew because New York will continue to bleed population down south due to the ridiculous housing, rent and property tax costs. 

[ag]

FL is another interesting case.  It was expected to gain 1 or 2.  But we've entered a time of intense and frequent storms.  And the decade's only half over.  Will be interesting to see if FL actually surpasses NY, as expected, in the next census.  It may not.

Florida will still grew because New York will continue to bleed population down south due to the ridiculous housing, rent and property tax costs. 

Well, the worst housing laws (and costs) are in NYC - and NYC (and the downstate in general) are gaining population. It is the upstate that's not keeping up (what are the rent control laws in, say, Troy? Are there any?). Still, NY as a whole does grow, only slowly.

[patrick1]

FL is another interesting case.  It was expected to gain 1 or 2.  But we've entered a time of intense and frequent storms.  And the decade's only half over.  Will be interesting to see if FL actually surpasses NY, as expected, in the next census.  It may not.

Florida will still grew because New York will continue to bleed population down south due to the ridiculous housing, rent and property tax costs. 

Well, the worst housing laws (and costs) are in NYC - and NYC (and the downstate in general) are gaining population. It is the upstate that's not keeping up (what are the rent control laws in, say, Troy? Are there any?). Still, NY as a whole does grow, only slowly.

The Upstate region is in many cases losing population but even the NYC metro area is growing well below the National average.  There is a good amount of flux because many people are selling their homes to cash in on housing price boom and moving to cheaper environs.  Younger people are either paying astronomical rents or sinking huge amounts of money on their houses.  The % of income that many people are paying for their mortgages is getting obscene.  There is not really much room for growth in NYC metroi anyone because the area is really built up as it is.  I think the general population patterns will remain.  Older people will head south and southwest and young professional will move in to take their place drawn by the proximity of financial jobs.  Soory for the tangent, I am just getting dismayed at the ridiculous costs around here.

[ag]

FL is another interesting case.  It was expected to gain 1 or 2.  But we've entered a time of intense and frequent storms.  And the decade's only half over.  Will be interesting to see if FL actually surpasses NY, as expected, in the next census.  It may not.

Florida will still grew because New York will continue to bleed population down south due to the ridiculous housing, rent and property tax costs. 

Well, the worst housing laws (and costs) are in NYC - and NYC (and the downstate in general) are gaining population. It is the upstate that's not keeping up (what are the rent control laws in, say, Troy? Are there any?). Still, NY as a whole does grow, only slowly.

The Upstate region is in many cases losing population but even the NYC metro area is growing well below the National average.  There is a good amount of flux because many people are selling their homes to cash in on housing price boom and moving to cheaper environs.  Younger people are either paying astronomical rents or sinking huge amounts of money on their houses.  The % of income that many people are paying for their mortgages is getting obscene.  There is not really much room for growth in NYC metroi anyone because the area is really built up as it is.  I think the general population patterns will remain.  Older people will head south and southwest and young professional will move in to take their place drawn by the proximity of financial jobs.  Soory for the tangent, I am just getting dismayed at the ridiculous costs around here.

To feel better, spend a week in London (I just did).  When you come back, you'd find NYC dirt cheap.