1984: Reagan vs Glenn
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  1984: Reagan vs Glenn
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Author Topic: 1984: Reagan vs Glenn  (Read 4326 times)
Mr. Smith
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« on: August 30, 2014, 12:35:41 AM »

What if Ohio Senator John Glenn won the nomination instead of Mondale?

I believe this John Glenn was an astronaut, and probably could've used that to get the same "celebrity politician" thing Reagan had going.

But would it have been enough to counteract Reagan? Would it have brought it to a closer race? A Dukakis-Bush landslide? Or would Reagan have actually taken all 50 states?

Anyone have map ideas?

I'm guessing either a 1988 map in favor of Reagan,except Ohio pulls a 1960 and doesn't predict the winner. California would be the last state determined, pulling for Reagan out of a "native son" effect....unless Jerry Brown or Alan Cranston is the VP.

Or a 2000 map except Glenn might have Indiana or Georgia instead of Vermont and New Hampshire [because Vermont couldn't be bothered to vote FDR and only voted against Goldwater because of the Civil Rights Act aftermath...then they didn't vote for Humphrey]
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2014, 12:38:58 AM »

The fact that Glenn did so poorly in the primaries doesn't help his general election argument. He probably would've done even worse than Mondale did, maybe even lost all 50 states.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2014, 05:12:11 AM »

Gary Hart, who as Mondales biggest challenger in the priamries, might be a stronger candidate. However, I think no Democrat would have been ble to beat Reagan in 1984.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2014, 07:35:42 AM »

The fact that Glenn did so poorly in the primaries doesn't help his general election argument. He probably would've done even worse than Mondale did, maybe even lost all 50 states.

I'm not sure if he would do quite that bad, but yes I don't see how he dramatically improves the map for Democrats.  Minnesota probably goes Republican under this scenario and Ohio is too much of a swing state for me to see the Homeboy AdvantageTM being very effective when the national environment favored Reagan as much as it did ("Morning in America" worked so well for a reason).

But really, the main point here is that John Glenn was just BORING as a candidate.  I mean the guy was an ASTRONAUT, not an actor.  His life's dream was to go to the stars, not giving wit laden speeches and being in picture perfect pose whenever the cameras were around.  Amusingly enough, NASA psychologists determined in the early 60's that Glenn, as stiff as his speaking style was, would be the astronaut best suited for public life.  He made his first Primary attempt in 1964 when he resigned to run against the incumbent before he slipped on his bathroom floor or some sh*t and hit his head on the bathtub and suffered a concussion.  When he again ran in 1970 he was defeated in that primary by Howard freakin' Metzenbaum, who he would face four years later in 1974 after the man was appointed by the incumbent Governor to fill a vacancy.  It was only when Metzenbaum provided Glenn a massive opening to attack him as an unpatriotic SOB that Glenn was able to destroy him.  And even in his "moment" Glenn is too calm and too stiff.
Mondale was at least capable of being excitable occasionally.

I mean, that is not to say that Glenn couldn't motivate people, he most certainly could.  He seems like he's the kind of guy you could have a drink with and that probably helped him a lot in Ohio.  However nationally, I don't see it helping that much against Reagan, who was both a drinking man's president and a made for tv one.
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2014, 07:39:38 PM »

Reagan was vulnerable going into 1984, and a ticket of, say, John Glenn and Fritz Hollings might have shaken some things up.  Glenn would never have promised a tax increase, and he would not have signed off on the unilateral Nuclear Freeze as Mondale did.  Had those two come up with a strategy to exploit the problems of farmers at that time, it MIGHT have gotten interesting.


Reagan/Bush (R)   384 EV
Glenn/Hollings (D) 184 EV
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2014, 11:01:23 PM »

It's still weird to me to think about the fact that a famous astronaut was president
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Never
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« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2014, 12:38:28 AM »

I think Fuzzy Bear had the right line of thinking, in that John Glenn wouldn't have had some of the major disadvantages that Mondale did. Perhaps Glenn's image as America's first astronaut to orbit the earth would have been of some benefit. I suspect his ticket's electoral success would have been mostly isolated to the Midewest and Northeast. Save for West Virginia, I have my doubts that the Southern states would have voted against Reagan in a year like 1984, even with a Democratic candidate such as Glenn.



Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush (Republican): 414 Electoral Votes
John Glenn/Fritz Hollings (Democratic): 124 Electoral Votes
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2014, 02:55:35 PM »



Reagan/Bush   56%
Glenn/Cuomo    43%
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