OK, I already mentioned in
this thread that Arizona has now moved its primary out of February and into March. That still leaves Michigan on Feb. 23rd, and a few other "rogue states" in February that neither the DNC nor RNC really wants there.
FHQ's latest blog post clears a few things up that remained murky to me when the RNC tweaked its rules earlier this year.
Without getting too deep into the weeds, the short version is this: The new rules the RNC adopted back at the 2012 RNC left a two-tiered penalty system for going early. The chosen four of IA/NH/NV/SC are allowed to go first, and all the other states are supposed to go on March 1 or later. However, states that go up to a week earlier than March 1 (Arizona and Michigan had been scheduled for Feb. 23rd, for example) would get a 50% delegate penalty, as in 2012. States that went even earlier than that would get a "super penalty" that eliminates nearly all of their delegates. As of January of this year, it looks like that is changed, and there is no one week window anymore. Any primary or caucus held even one day before March 1 results in the "super penalty" (again, with IA, NH, NV, and SC being exempt). The DNC has similarly stiff penalties, and gives exemptions to the same four states.
So, I expect the few remaining February primary states, including Michigan, to move later. This also puts emphasis on the South, since Super Tuesday this time around looks very southern-heavy, and South Carolina will now be the last primary held before Super Tuesday, so it provides the last bit of momentum.
Possible tentative calendar would then be:
Jan. 25th: Iowa caucus
Feb. 2nd: New Hampshire primary
Feb. 13th: Nevada caucus
Feb. 20th: South Carolina primary
Mar. 1st: Super Tuesday
And what states will vote on Super Tuesday? Right now, looks like:
Florida
Massachusetts
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
Others likely to join them include:
Colorado
Minnesota
maybe Georgia and North Carolina as well.
So, at least so far, very southern heavy for Super Tuesday, with Texas and Florida being the biggest delegate prizes there.
Given that, it would be hard for a candidate like Christie, with limited southern appeal, to score an early knockout victory, where they win by sweeping the early contests. The first three contests are outside the South, but after that is SC, and then a big dose of the South on Super Tuesday. Though if there is no early knockout by any candidate, and it becomes a long term war of delegate accumulation, then someone like Christie would have a better chance, since, as noted in
this thread, the non-southern states largely use delegate allocation methods that are closer to WTA, and that are tilted more towards GOP voters in urban areas.
[The above largely focused on the GOP side, but the same applies to the Dems. The Dems will have basically the same calendar, so the same focus on the South after the opening IA/NH/NV contests.]
