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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Here and Back Again
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Author Topic: Here and Back Again  (Read 1460 times)
NHI
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 30, 2014, 04:40:07 PM »

"...my friends we find ourselves in a similar setting to what we found ourselves in four years ago. The country is in crisis and the world on fire. Americans are without direction from a President who'd rather golf than govern. The nightmare of Obamacare has strapped middle income families across the country, the debt continues to pile up and what is the Democrats's response? Thing are fine. A third term. A continuation of where things are going. That's not leadership, that's passing the buck to the next generation and in the Democrats be it Martin O'Malley, Hillary Clinton or Elizabeth Warren they don't have the answers. They are not the solution. We need real leaders who will standup and take charge, not duck the tough issues....

Four years ago in our campaign America reelected President Obama and here we are and things are the same as they were four, frankly eight years ago! This now, is not a campaign of We told you so, at the time the issues were so complex, so extraordinary and yet abstract. We didn't know how bad thing could be and frankly how bad they got. But this is not about relighting the past, this is about America's future and leading this country to a bright future. We still believe in America, we believe we can turn this around, we can get the job done. So please stand with me. Together as one people, as one country we can restore the principles of our founding and nations heritage and keep America a shining city on a hill.

So with clear eyes and a full heart, I say to you tonight with great pride and humility: yes, I accept your nomination for President of The United States...." 













Democratic Nomination 2016: Deadlocked Convention
Hillary Clinton: 46%
Elizabeth Warren: 43%
Undecided: 7%
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Maxwell
mah519
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Germany


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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2014, 04:41:41 PM »

Let's see what happens!
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2014, 08:37:06 AM »

The Democrats


Hillary Clinton remained the favorite for the Democratic Nomination from the start. She led in fundraising, primary polls and trounced all her Republican rivals. Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley entered the race as a long shot, a move saw by man as a securing himself the VP ticket. However, liberals disappointed in President Obama, and with dissatisfaction with Hillary in terms of her hawkish stances and moderate fiscal policies, forced staunch liberals to hold back and seek another candidate.

Bernie Sanders, a once thought likely candidate declined, but left the door open for a third party candidacy, 'should the Democrats fail to nominate a candidate of the people and for the people.' Martin O'Malley focused his campaign efforts on Iowa and New Hampshire, but as the months went on failed to gain any traction. For a while it looked as thought Clinton would received a coronation after the first contests. But, all of that changed when Elizabeth Warren threw her hat into the ring pledging to be 'a voice for the forgotten America' and 'to fight against cronyism and fight for the middle class'.

Liberals were drawn to her candidacy like moths to light. She excited the Democratic primary and turned the race into a real contests. Even veteran Democratic activists believed a "real" primary would benefit Clinton in the end and make her stronger for the nomination. "McCain essentially walked to the nomination in 2008, and Clinton is similar to McCain in the sense that she is the established, experienced candidate that everyone knows and that can be a detriment. Especially if the Republicans get their act together." -- Chris Matthews

While Clinton still led Warren in national polls, her numbers slowly began to improve and with her campaign focused almost entirely in Iowa, many were not shocked when just as it had happened eight years before Clinton lost the first caucus. In a three-man race with O'Malley taking only 19 percent of the vote, Warren cleaned Clinton clock, taking 42 percent of the vote. Clinton lost by four points, winning only 38 percent.

Much like her campaign in 2008 Clinton refocused heading into the Granite State, hoping and praying that New Hampshire would offer her one final comeback. She campaigned relentlessly stressing her continued argument that against the Republican she was the strongest and the most electable. Clinton had evidence to backup the claim, even against likely Republican nominee Paul Ryan, Warren only managed to tie the former VP and Wisconsin Congressman.

In New Hampshire Clinton prevailed, winning with 46 percent of the vote, to Warren's 41 percent. O'Malley once against finished third with a dismal 12 percent of the vote. Over the following contests Clinton and Warren scored a number of victories. Clinton taking Nevada and South Carolina and Utah, while Warren walked away with Minnesota and Colorado.

President Obama remained neutral during the primary, though he gave many indications that he preferred Warren to Clinton. O'Malley ended his bid after The Nevada Caucuses, but refused to endorse a candidate, and the race prolonged. While they both scored a fair number of victories, the primary ended with neither one of them securing enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination, heading to a brokered convention for the first time in decades.


Hillary Clinton: 1,963 (70.7% of delegates won)
Elizabeth Warren: 1,941 (69.9% of delegates won)
Martin O'Malley: 41
Delegates to win Nomination: 2,778

National Polling:
Hillary Clinton: 46%
Elizabeth Warren: 44%
Undecided: 10%
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badgate
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2014, 11:59:45 PM »

Interesting, but do those delegate totals include super delegates?
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2014, 09:09:39 PM »

Hold the phone...maybe retooling this thread...stay tuned.
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Enderman
Jack Enderman
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« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2014, 06:47:51 AM »

Hold the phone...maybe retooling this thread...stay tuned.

Huh
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2014, 09:28:20 PM »


Democrats, eager to keep the party together, and Clinton not wanting to cede any ground to the Ryan/Ayotte joined forces with Elizabeth Warren to unite the Democratic Party. Political pundits hailed it as a brilliant political move by Clinton. Democrats marched out the convention united behind the Clinton/Warren ticket, and Ryan who originally led Clinton coming out of the RNC, saw his poll numbers dip as the campaign headed into the fall.

"Congressman Ryan is out of touch, out of step and out of direction with the American people. We've tried their way. We don't look in the rear view mirror in America, we keep our eyes on the road ahead, going forward..."

Gallup Tracking Poll: 2016 (Clinton: +5)
(D) Hillary Clinton: 48%
(R) Paul Ryan: 43%

Clinton: 272
Ryan: 206
Tossup: 60
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Enderman
Jack Enderman
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2014, 09:40:15 PM »

So Ryan/Ayotte it is! Cheesy
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NHI
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2014, 05:13:28 PM »


Clinton and Ryan crisscrossed the country, making their case to voters. Ryan continued to trail the Former Secretary of State, but many believed the debates would make the difference. In their first debate on Domestic Policy, Ryan seemed to have upped his game from four years earlier, when Joe Biden showcased his experience and skill, making Ryan appear weak and unprepared. The Congressman held his own against Clinton, tying her to the Obama Presidency, specifically blasting Clinton for pledging to continue Obama's economic and foreign policies. "We've had two terms of Barack Obama, we don't need a third and Madam Secretary you're promising more of the same."

Polls showed a narrowing race after their first debate, though Clinton, rather effectively blasted Ryan for being a foot soldier in the Republican Party's "War on Women" and for crafting the "Lopsided Economic and social polices found in 1950s America, then in 2016's America."

The second two debates, much like the ones four years ago proved unchanging. Both candidates stayed on message and made no gaffes. In the Vice Presidential Debate, Kelly Ayotte was seen as having a slight edge over Warren.


Who Won the First Presidential Debate?
Hillary Clinton: 40%
Paul Ryan: 38%
Tie: 9%
Undecided: 13%

Ryan Closing Strong
Hillary Clinton: 48%
Paul Ryan: 46%

"We can turn the page on the last four years and have a new beginning. A future with a growing economy, a thriving middle class, an actual foreign policy. I ask for you to stand with me. I ask for you vote and will work with you to make this country great once again."

(D) Hillary Clinton: 0 (0%)
(R) Paul Ryan: 0 (0%)

7:00 pm EST
(R) Paul Ryan: 28 (52%)
(D) Hillary Clinton: 3 (47%)

7:30 pm EST
(R) Paul Ryan: 33 (52%)
(D) Hillary Clinton: 3 (47%)

8:00 pm EST
(D) Hillary Clinton: 79 (47.9%)
(R) Paul Ryan: 66 (52.1%)

9:00 pm EST
(D) Hillary Clinton: 139 (51.4%)
(R) Paul Ryan: 129 (48.6%)

10:00 pm EST
(R) Paul Ryan: 160 (51.1%)
(D) Hillary Clinton: 139 (48.9%)
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
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United States


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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2014, 01:59:44 PM »

Not legit. Muh Hillary didn't win every state!
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Maxwell
mah519
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Posts: 28,459
Germany


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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2014, 03:41:09 PM »

How did Paul Ryan win the GOP nomination?
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