MO-GOV 2016: McCaskill run?

[RogueBeaver]

She's apparently been dropping hints. What do resident Missourians think?

[Vega]

I'm not a resident Missourian, but I think she'd be better off running for a third term in the U.S. Senate. I can't see her winning.

[PPT Spiral]

1. ew

2. McCaskill had a chance in 2004 but that didn't happen, of course. At this point, she's too unpopular and she wouldn't attract enough crossover support necessary for a Missouri Democrat to win statewide like Jay Nixon did. Her reelection in 2012 was an obvious outlier because the opponent she faced was just that bad, but you can bet that the Republicans in this state will try their hardest to ensure that doesn't happen again. I would say that Republicans have an edge toward reclaiming the governorship in 2016, although that can change depending on who the candidates are.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Koster would wipe the floor with her in the primary.

[Suburbia]

I don't know if she can win the governorship. If she defeats Koster in the primary and faces Catherine Hanaway or Tom Schweich, I don't know if she can win in rural ares like Rolla, and Lamar, etc. She won rural ares against Akin in her 2012 re-election because Akin was too conservative for the state.

[user12345]

I would rather have her as governor than Koster, but Koster would have a much better chance of winning in my opinion. She should just stick to the Senate.

[henster]

The Dems have a deep enough bench in MO they don't even need her to run and Koster would be a far superior candidate to her.

[LeBron]

Kander could also be a strong candidate if Koster opts out. Kander's fundraising numbers aren't nearly as impressive as Koster's and Koster has more political experience, but ultimately, either of them or most Missouri Democrats for that matter would be a better candidate for Governor than McCaskill. She would risk nationalizing a race that just shouldn't be nationalized and would struggle finding any support outside KC and St. Louis.

If anything, McCaskill needs to be more focused on 2018. Unless a miracle takes place where the MO GOP screws up again and nominates Luetkemeyer or Hartzler, McCaskill will arguably be the most endangered incumbent. She needs to begin raising money for the 2018 runs, not 2016 Governor. Same goes for Manchin and Heitkamp.

[free my dawg]

Kander could also be a strong candidate if Koster opts out. Kander's fundraising numbers aren't nearly as impressive as Koster's and Koster has more political experience, but ultimately, either of them or most Missouri Democrats for that matter would be a better candidate for Governor than McCaskill. She would risk nationalizing a race that just shouldn't be nationalized and would struggle finding any support outside KC and St. Louis.

If anything, McCaskill needs to be more focused on 2018. Unless a miracle takes place where the MO GOP screws up again and nominates Luetkemeyer or Hartzler, McCaskill will arguably be the most endangered incumbent. She needs to begin raising money for the 2018 runs, not 2016 Governor. Same goes for Manchin and Heitkamp.

What's wrong with Luetkemeyer? I don't see any controversy with him.

Hartzler, of course, is a very different story.

[IceSpear]

McCaskill may be the luckiest politician ever if she gets Icky Vicky as her opponent.

[henster]

Kander will probably run for Senate in absence of Nixon I don't see Koster backing out of the Gov race in any scenario he's been running since 2012 really.

[LeBron]

Kander will probably run for Senate in absence of Nixon I don't see Koster backing out of the Gov race in any scenario he's been running since 2012 really.

Kander would be the next best choice if Koster for whatever reason declines though. Like Wisconsin with Feingold, you always need a backup just in case. Zweifel already declined a run for Governor, but he hasn't declined a run for Senate, so the most likely scenario I see happening is Koster for Governor and either Zweifel or Kander for Senate, depending on what Koster does.

@sawx, I knew he was a Tea Party darling, but to my amazement, he actually doesn't seem to be nearly as bad as Icky Vicky. He seems to avoid social issues more than Vicky does, which is good considering the last thing the MO GOP would need in 2018 is another Akin-like social comment. So I guess it will be either Vicky or vanish for McCaskill.

[Suburbia]

Rachel Maddow thinks she should run for president in 2016. She has lots of options. She can run for governor in 2016, or president, or run for Senate reelection in 2018. If she runs for governor, it's because of a potential Hillary Clinton presidential run in 2016, and the coattail effect.

http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/2014/09/claire_mccaskill_probably_wont_run_for_president_awkwardly_tells_rachel_maddow_why.php

http://themissouritorch.com/blog/2014/09/02/how-mccaskill-runs-for-governor-in-2016-and-avoids-a-nasty-primary-against-koster/

[Vega]

I don't see her running for President at all. Seems like we're really scraping the barrel.

I'm almost waiting for a Will Diane Feinstein run for President? thread.

[IceSpear]

Rachel Maddow thinks she should run for president in 2016. She has lots of options. She can run for governor in 2016, or president, or run for Senate reelection in 2018. If she runs for governor, it's because of a potential Hillary Clinton presidential run in 2016, and the coattail effect.

http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/2014/09/claire_mccaskill_probably_wont_run_for_president_awkwardly_tells_rachel_maddow_why.php

http://themissouritorch.com/blog/2014/09/02/how-mccaskill-runs-for-governor-in-2016-and-avoids-a-nasty-primary-against-koster/

McCaskill was one of the first senators to endorse Hillary. Not gonna happen.

[user12345]

No
1: She tried back in 2004 and failed.
2: Koster doesn't need competition in the primary when the general election will already be competitive enough.

[Indy Texas]

On an unrelated note, why does Missouri consistently produce such mediocre politicians? You'd think a state that historically was fairly evenly matched between the parties would produce better candidates by necessity.

You have the Blunts, John Ashcroft, Bob Holden, right-wing SoCon GOP-ers like Akin/Hartzler, CBC Democrats in STL/KC, Jay Nixon, Claire.

It says something that the most highly regarded MO politicians are probably Harry Truman, and the Carnahans, who basically ran St. Louis like their personal fiefdom.

[rbt48]

On an unrelated note, why does Missouri consistently produce such mediocre politicians? You'd think a state that historically was fairly evenly matched between the parties would produce better candidates by necessity.

You have the Blunts, John Ashcroft, Bob Holden, right-wing SoCon GOP-ers like Akin/Hartzler, CBC Democrats in STL/KC, Jay Nixon, Claire.

It says something that the most highly regarded MO politicians are probably Harry Truman, and the Carnahans, who basically ran St. Louis like their personal fiefdom.

I think John Danforth and Kit Bond are generally held in high regard.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On an unrelated note, why does Missouri consistently produce such mediocre politicians? You'd think a state that historically was fairly evenly matched between the parties would produce better candidates by necessity.

You have the Blunts, John Ashcroft, Bob Holden, right-wing SoCon GOP-ers like Akin/Hartzler, CBC Democrats in STL/KC, Jay Nixon, Claire.

It says something that the most highly regarded MO politicians are probably Harry Truman, and the Carnahans, who basically ran St. Louis like their personal fiefdom.

I think John Danforth and Kit Bond are generally held in high regard.

Danforth yes, but Bond is just a generic Republican.

[Suburbia]

McCaskill could win the governorship if Hillary runs for president. It could be a coattail effect for the Democrats.

[user12345]

Uh oh http://m.kmbc.com/news/missouri-house-committee-to-investigate-koster/29426032

[IceSpear]

Uh oh http://m.kmbc.com/news/missouri-house-committee-to-investigate-koster/29426032

Isn't the Missouri House full of Republican hacks that routinely do investigations on Democrats based off no evidence? Meh.

[Boston Bread]

Hopefully the democrats who let that gerrymander happen have learned their lesson.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Uh oh http://m.kmbc.com/news/missouri-house-committee-to-investigate-koster/29426032

Isn't the Missouri House full of Republican hacks that routinely do investigations on Democrats based off no evidence? Meh.

Basically