Kopacz nominated for PM of Poland

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

http://www.euronews.com/2014/08/30/eu-leaders-name-donald-tusk-european-council-president-/

Christ...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could've been worse.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The lack of response to this thread seems to confirm that, save for typical idiotic reaction from the Polish media (zomgz great success in Europe!!11), nobody cares about this basically figurehead position.

[You kip if you want to...]

Who's replacing him as PM then?

[NewYorkExpress]

Who's replacing him as PM then?

Unless there's something in the Polish Constitution I don't know about, he should be able to do both jobs.

[Joe Republic]

Who's replacing him as PM then?

Unless there's something in the Polish Constitution I don't know about, he should be able to do both jobs.

... It really, really would be best if you steered clear of entering your political analysis into any thread.  Thank you in advance.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Who's replacing him as PM then?

He's staying on as PM until November, so there is time to pick a successor.

The problem is that Tusk spent a good part of his tenure either eliminating or neutralizing potential intra-party opponents (read: any stronger personalities), which means any potential successors would be in far weaker position, especially now, that election approached and PO is sliding in the polls.

Anyhow, there are frequently mentioned names:

Elżbieta Bieńkowska (Deputy PM and Minister of Regional Development)
Ewa Kopacz (Marshal of Sejm, First Vice-Chair of PO)
Radosław Sikorski (Minister of Foreign Affairs)
Tomasz Siemoniak (Minister of Defense)
Grzegorz Schetyna (former Marshal of Sejm and Acting President)

I'll write advantages and disadvantages of each potential candidate later.

[ag]

Sikorski seems like a good choice.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Sikorski seems like a good choice.

Especially with his foreign policy experience. Unfortunately, he doesn't have his own power base within the party, which makes him a long-shot candidate.

Normally, Schetyna would be a logical candidate, being Tusk's second-in-command for a long time. He's a superb political operative with a considerable number of supporters. But they are isolated after he was railroaded after the 2011 election.

Bieńkowska is currently Tusk's favorite Minister, but she doesn't have any power base on her own (having never joined the party). Also, being gaffe-prone doesn't help either.

Kopacz is considered the most likely choice, due to her close relationship with the PM and position within the party ranks. Her major weakness is being a follower, rather than a leader type.

Siemioniak is the least experienced of all, but also got his power base, albeit smaller than Kopacz.

At this moment, with a gun to my head, I'd say Kopacz, with Siemioniak second most likely.

[swl]

I think the Tusk/Mogherini tandem is a good choice. Thorning-Schmidt was probably too "blond" for the job, especially now that it is clear that the EU will need some "toughness" against Russia. Tusk is dedicated and the fact that he will spend the next months until his inauguration to work on his English is a good sign. Mogherini is less experienced but already has a great CV, I think she will do a good job while remaining somehow under Tusk supervision.

Somehow it seems like Juncker and the European leaders are managing to build a team that satisfies everyone. That was not easy. Central and European countries are happy thanks to Tusk. Italy is satisfied. The internal market position should go the UK, and that's what they have been asking for. Spain and Germany are happy because Luis de Guindos will be the next president of the Eurogroup. France will probably get the Economy and Monetary affairs position under the condition that the Finnish candidate gets an important economic position too.
It looked like an impossible task at the beginning but it seems that Juncker did it.

Several other comments:
-Mogherini is the first top European politician to come from the "Erasmus generation". This generation is the first to really "feel European" and I am very enthusiastic about them getting more power in the future.
-We will hear a lot of Italian voices in Europe. Draghi, Mogherini, Renzi... Italian influence is definitely growing.
-This will go unnoticed in countries like France, but it is worth noting that Tusk is resigning from a PM job to get a EU post. He is not the only one (Finnish PM did the same, and he is now set to get an important position) and many countries are now sending their best politicians for EU jobs, and the EU top administration is filled with more and more very competent people. For many, EU jobs are now seen as a promotion compared to national positions, and France should stop sending the local "loser" who happen to be unemployed at that time (like Moscovici), and should think about sending its top "players" if it wants its voice to remain heard.

[You kip if you want to...]

Thorning-Schmidt was probably too "blond" for the job, especially now that it is clear that the EU will need some "toughness" against Russia.

Stay classy.

[swl]

Well I think she's known for three things outside of Denmark: first her famous selfie, then her "Gucci" nickname and lastly her "Hi, I am the prime minister of Denmark". So in the current context where half of Europe wants to act more tough against Russia, her lightness was an important handicap compared to someone with a statesman image like Tusk. She suffered from the dumb blonde stereotype.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

no one care

[Lurker]

Well I think she's known for three things outside of Denmark: first her famous selfie, then her "Gucci" nickname and lastly her "Hi, I am the prime minister of Denmark". So in the current context where half of Europe wants to act more tough against Russia, her lightness was an important handicap compared to someone with a statesman image like Tusk. She suffered from the dumb blonde stereotype.

Do you honestly think the choice of EU president will bother the Russians at all? I suspect they couldn't care less, and policy-wise it makes no difference for them at all (of course).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well I think she's known for three things outside of Denmark: first her famous selfie, then her "Gucci" nickname and lastly her "Hi, I am the prime minister of Denmark". So in the current context where half of Europe wants to act more tough against Russia, her lightness was an important handicap compared to someone with a statesman image like Tusk. She suffered from the dumb blonde stereotype.

Do you honestly think the choice of EU president will bother the Russians at all? I suspect they couldn't care less, and policy-wise it makes no difference for them at all (of course).

I agree this won't change the direction of EU's foreign policy one way or another.

While Presidency of the Council is, in theory, a powerful post, its pretty much become a ceremonial presiding officer, as evident with Van Rumpoy's tenure. All the President can really do is trying to play a consensul-builder, but it can work only if heads of governments play along.

The truth is, there are already too much scorpions in the bottle (leaders of individual states on one side, running the Council, and European Commission on the other, which wields actual executive prerogatives) for Tusk or anyone filling this post to make a difference.

[ingemann]

The lack of response to this thread seems to confirm that, save for typical idiotic reaction from the Polish media (zomgz great success in Europe!!11), nobody cares about this basically figurehead position.

No I do in fact think it's a great position, through I'm not sure it's better than being PM of Poland.

Of course the choice of Tusk also show that they have great respect for the man, as it's hard to imagine another person who didn't talk French or English, and was as headstrong as him being selected would be unthinkable, usual they select competent, multilingual wall flowers.

 

I agree this won't change the direction of EU's foreign policy one way or another.

While Presidency of the Council is, in theory, a powerful post, its pretty much become a ceremonial presiding officer, as evident with Van Rumpoy's tenure. All the President can really do is trying to play a consensul-builder, but it can work only if heads of governments play along.

Van Rumpoy have had significant influence as president, but most of it have been behind close doors, something which seem to fit well with him.

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I think the position's power are based on the person which have it want to do with it, a weak stateman can get little out of it, a consensus seeking stateman can use it as a position as consensus builder (which was what we could have expected with Thorning). I look forward to see what Tusk bring to the position, my hope are that it will bring a much needed edge to the position.

[ag]

The President of the Council job is still fairly new. It will be what Tusk manages it to be.

[swl]

Do you honestly think the choice of EU president will bother the Russians at all? I suspect they couldn't care less, and policy-wise it makes no difference for them at all (of course).

Do Putin cares about anyone else than himself? If yes, Tusk will be somehow coordinating the EU sanctions against Russia, so he will be relevant.

Like ingemann and ag said, being new the top EU posts are very open in what are the associated duties and tasks, so it depends a lot on the personality of the person in charge. No one can really expect Tusk to behave like Van Rompuy.

There is also this time a clear difference in personality between the President of the European Council (Tusk) and the President of the European Commission (Juncker). They are not the same type of person at all and they may durably shape the distribution of tasks in the EU (until know, the "who does what?" question has been a big issue).

Note that the mandate is only 2.5 years long. It leaves room for someone else (we all know who I mean) to take the job in 2017.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

You can call me a Negative Nancy, but I'm still sceptical. I'm not going to buy the whole "picked because respected" thing. If EU leaders wanted a strong political personality to run the Council, they would have went with a tested statesman in 2009, like Juncker, instead of reaching to the second tier (while Van Rumpoy did very well, he wasn't really a prime candidate back then).

I think this selection is about message: giving a post to someone from the "New Europe", as well as sending a strong signal to Russia by picking a Pole. If it hadn't been Tusk, it would be someone else from the border countries.

While I understated Van Rumpoy's role, I'm not optimistic whether Tusk is up for the task. During his tenure he was nothing put a political machine operator, lacking vision or creativity, interested only in staying in power and guillotining potential rivals. If a Pole had to be selected, Sikorski would be far better choice, for example.

Going back to Russia, EU sanctions won't get any harsher not milder because of who was picked to chair the Council.

[Nhoj]

You can call me a Negative Nancy, but I'm still sceptical. I'm not going to buy the whole "picked because respected" thing. If EU leaders wanted a strong political personality to run the Council, they would have went with a tested statesman in 2009, like Juncker, instead of reaching to the second tier (while Van Rumpoy did very well, he wasn't really a prime candidate back then).

I think this selection is about message: giving a post to someone from the "New Europe", as well as sending a strong signal to Russia by picking a Pole. If it hadn't been Tusk, it would be someone else from the border countries.

While I understated Van Rumpoy's role, I'm not optimistic whether Tusk is up for the task. During his tenure he was nothing put a political machine operator, lacking vision or creativity, interested only in staying in power and guillotining potential rivals. If a Pole had to be selected, Sikorski would be far better choice, for example.

Going back to Russia, EU sanctions won't get any harsher not milder because of who was picked to chair the Council.

So perfect for the job then.

[politicus]

Could've been worse.

Not including actual fascists ad crazies (which wouldn't have gotten the job anyway), how could it have been worse?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

You can call me a Negative Nancy, but I'm still sceptical. I'm not going to buy the whole "picked because respected" thing. If EU leaders wanted a strong political personality to run the Council, they would have went with a tested statesman in 2009, like Juncker, instead of reaching to the second tier (while Van Rumpoy did very well, he wasn't really a prime candidate back then).

I think this selection is about message: giving a post to someone from the "New Europe", as well as sending a strong signal to Russia by picking a Pole. If it hadn't been Tusk, it would be someone else from the border countries.

While I understated Van Rumpoy's role, I'm not optimistic whether Tusk is up for the task. During his tenure he was nothing put a political machine operator, lacking vision or creativity, interested only in staying in power and guillotining potential rivals. If a Pole had to be selected, Sikorski would be far better choice, for example.

Going back to Russia, EU sanctions won't get any harsher not milder because of who was picked to chair the Council.

So perfect for the job then.

Hahaha, I wish it would be that simple

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It seems we can take Bieńkowska off the list, since she's been selected to be the next European Commissioner for for Internal Market and Services.

I really wish Tusk would have decided to resign earlier (since he's got a good excuse of "prepearing for transition"), so we would have the whole process completed sooner.

[ingemann]

You can call me a Negative Nancy, but I'm still sceptical. I'm not going to buy the whole "picked because respected" thing. If EU leaders wanted a strong political personality to run the Council, they would have went with a tested statesman in 2009, like Juncker, instead of reaching to the second tier (while Van Rumpoy did very well, he wasn't really a prime candidate back then).

I think you're something of a "Negative Nancy";p, first of all van Rompuy was very respected among the European leaders, yes he have little charisma, and look like the archetype of bureaucrats. But EU needed someone, who had his skill set and he was in fact head hunted and almost forced to take the position.

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Yes to some extent this is true, but there are a reason Tusk was choosen, from his good relationship with Merkel to the fact that Poland are the most important Eastern member, and if they didn't think he could fill the position (which demand that diplomatic skills and the ability to make people reach compromises), they would have found another. They could easily have send the same message, by choosing a East European High Representative for Foreign Affairs. So the choice of Tusk are a major thumps up to him and to Poland, which have gone from a pariah in EU to one of the major and well respected actors under Tusk.

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That sound like a excellent skill set for a EU president.

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No but he can effect the future dealing with Russia after this crisis.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

That sound like a excellent skill set for a EU president.

Sorry, but ability to work in specific set of Polish politics doesn't necessarily translate to ability to achieve the same on EU Council level. I sincerely wish to see Tusk as successfull President (not because he's a Pole, but because I simply want the EU to work well), but the burden of proof is on his side, especially with the fact foreign affairs were secondary concern for him as PM

Also, while I can't deny that Polish position within the EU improved since 2007 (ironically, the bar was quite low after Kaczyński), I can't agree with theory that Tusk somehow waved his magic stick and transformed Poland from a pariah into an important state member. First, due to Poland's size, we were already most important of EU's eastern members (though, undoubtedly, a lot of this potential has been wasted). Second, giving him the entire credit is simply not fair, given a lot of people (from and outside the current administration) worked really hard.

I admit Tusk has some encouraging characteristic, but he was always primarily concerned with national affairs and I'm not sure whether he's up for this job. I'd rather see Sikorski as High Representative, if Poland really had to receive a top post in Brussels.