Who will win in Colorado?

[Senator Cris]

The last poll for the Colorado Senate race is of July 24. Probably this race will be one of the most close in the country and the question is... who will win in November?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Udall. Colorado polls have a history of under sampling Democrats, and now that the state uses all-mail ballots the traditionally Democratic constituencies with midterm turnout issues should vote in larger numbers. Basically, if the Democratic candidate leads, is tied with the Republican, or trails the Republican by 2-3 points, odds are they'll win.

[Senator Cris]

Udall. Colorado polls have a history of under sampling Democrats, and now that the state uses all-mail ballots the traditionally Democratic constituencies with midterm turnout issues should vote in larger numbers. Basically, if the Democratic candidate leads, is tied with the Republican, or trails the Republican by 2-3 points, odds are they'll win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2010#Polling_3

[Dixie Reborn]

Gardner.

[Maxwell]

Udall probably will.

[KCDem]

Udall. Colorado polls have a history of under sampling Democrats, and now that the state uses all-mail ballots the traditionally Democratic constituencies with midterm turnout issues should vote in larger numbers. Basically, if the Democratic candidate leads, is tied with the Republican, or trails the Republican by 2-3 points, odds are they'll win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2010#Polling_3

You're proving his point. No poll in the page you linked after October 2 showed Bennet leading Buck. Bennet won by 1.7.

[RogueBeaver]

Probably Udall, for the reasons interstate mentioned.

[TDAS04]

Mo's son. 

[Person Man]

Colorado was the state, and many COGOTPers like backtored still believe that Colorado still is or can become the state where the voters main narrative is "we finally gave liberals a chance and they blew it". However,  they may have missed that boat in 2010. The furthest this narrative has played out is that conservative activists won a string of low turn out election this year and last but that is what they were doing in 2009-10. In 2010, they were consistently ahead by 7 ish and no they are down by 2. Further, they still lost in 2010 and aren't raising enough money this time. Combined with how far to the right the Republicans are still running and all the violent and offensive rhetoric they use down ballot AND the fact more people will be able to vote (probably why the race is going underpolled), the Democrats should do well this year. Of course Republicans have been able to build a good narrative around Hick being soft on crime and they have called Udall out on trying to lie on Obamacare (though this is countered by the fact that this "lie" is trying to stop the Republicans from making fake stats about O bamacare). Republicans do have a path to victory based on Nixon style issues but the only way they can win is if CO Democrats run a campaign as poorly as the Florida ones.

[Oak Hills]

I'd give the edge to Udall, though it could easily go either way.

[ElectionsGuy]

Udall

[SPC]

Udall. Colorado polls have a history of under sampling Democrats, and now that the state uses all-mail ballots the traditionally Democratic constituencies with midterm turnout issues should vote in larger numbers. Basically, if the Democratic candidate leads, is tied with the Republican, or trails the Republican by 2-3 points, odds are they'll win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2010#Polling_3

You're proving his point. No poll in the page you linked after October 2 showed Bennet leading Buck. Bennet won by 1.7.

If you remove the Rasmussen polls, the polling average showed a Buck lead of 1.5, which is within the margin of error of the actual result. But yes, applying a similar analysis to 2012 of taking the average of non-GOP hack firms shows Obama outperformed by about 2 points, and only about 1 point in 2008. On the other hand, Udall underperformed by 3 points in 2008; thus I am not sure whether recent Democratic "overperformance" in Colorado is truly attributable to systematic bias by legitimate firms as it is to random chance. Even then, the adjusted polling average is still fairly good, not missing any election in the last six years by more than 3 points<sup>1

1</sup> Yes, 2010 Governor was an exception to this rule, with Hickenlooper overperforming by 5 points relative to Tancredo, but part of that was attributable to Maes getting more votes than anticipated in order to maintain Republican ballot status. Absent the three-way dynamic the polling average error would have fallen within 3 points.

[Vosem]

Probably Udall, but it should be noted that in 2008, polls significantly overestimated Udall against Bob Shaffer, at the same time as they underestimated Obama against McCain.

[NHLiberal]

Probably Udall, but it should be noted that in 2008, polls significantly overestimated Udall against Bob Shaffer, at the same time as they underestimated Obama against McCain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2008#Polling

No, they didn't.

[Person Man]

Probably Udall, but it should be noted that in 2008, polls significantly overestimated Udall against Bob Shaffer, at the same time as they underestimated Obama against McCain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2008#Polling

No, they didn't.

If anything, it gives very good credence to this-

Udall. Colorado polls have a history of under sampling Democrats, and now that the state uses all-mail ballots the traditionally Democratic constituencies with midterm turnout issues should vote in larger numbers. Basically, if the Democratic candidate leads, is tied with the Republican, or trails the Republican by 2-3 points, odds are they'll win.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2010#Polling_3

Maybe the mail in thing won't operate on top of the bias but help cement it at 3%. Gardner can't count on Udall losing. He must win on in his own right.

[Never]

Probably Udall, for the reasons interstate mentioned.

[Vega]

Udall. Colorado is a tilt D state right now.

[Free Bird]

What are we all basing our guesses on? Month old polls? A month is a lifetime in politics. Colorado GOP has been scoring victories as of late, and discarding the YouGov polls and the questionable Marist poll, Gardner has a lead, so this is really a Tossup

[Person Man]

What are we all basing our guesses on? Month old polls? A month is a lifetime in politics. Colorado GOP has been scoring victories as of late, so this is really a Tossup

Since the poll?

[Free Bird]

What are we all basing our guesses on? Month old polls? A month is a lifetime in politics. Colorado GOP has been scoring victories as of late, so this is really a Tossup

Since the poll?

There haven't BEEN elections since the last poll, which if I remember right, was the garbage YouGov poll

[SPC]

Probably Udall, but it should be noted that in 2008, polls significantly overestimated Udall against Bob Shaffer, at the same time as they underestimated Obama against McCain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2008#Polling

No, they didn't.

Unfortunately, that article was largley absent of polls taken in the last two weeks before the election. Here's a more updated outlook:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/co/colorado_senate-556.html

Indeed, polling did show Udall performing about three points better than he actually did.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Probably Udall, for the reasons interstate mentioned.

[Free Bird]

Again, I'm not too worried about Colorado. If Gardner loses, he can challenge Bennet in 16

[Suburbia]

Udall. By 3-7%.

[SPC]

Again, I'm not too worried about Colorado. If Gardner loses, he can challenge Bennet in 16

Gardner's chances at unseating an incumbent would be better with a midterm electorate.