Will Corbett win less counties than Santorum 2006?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I think he will.

[NHLiberal]

Well Pennsylvania has become more polarized since 2006 (most states have, but PA has some of the worst of it), so it's very possible that Corbett will lose by a bigger margin than Santorum while still winning more counties.

[they don't love you like i love you]

For reference:

[TDAS04]

Probably. 

[henster]

Corbett hasn't even broke 40% in any poll for well over a year he's in far worse than Santorum ever was.

[Maxwell]

I think Wolf barely crosses 60.

[IceSpear]

Even if Wolf wins by an identical or slightly higher margin than Casey did, I still see him winning less counties, due to the reasons NHLiberal already stated.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Wolf wins by ~22 as some polls suggest, he will likely win most (perhaps all) of these counties:

Cameron (2006: 52-48 Santorum)
Clarion (2006: 53-47 Santorum)
Crawford (2006: 51-49 Santorum)
Huntingdon (2006: 54-46 Santorum, but less than 1,000 vote margin)
McKean (2006: 54-46 Santorum, but less than 1,000 vote margin)
Montour (2006: 54-46 Santorum, but less than 500 vote margin)
Pike (2006: 52-48 Santorum)
Sullivan (2006: 53-47 Santorum)
Susquehanna (2006: 51-49 Santorum)
Venango (2006: 52-48 Santorum)
Wayne (2006: 53-47 Santorum)

However, should Wolf only win by ~15 points, which I think is more likely, as it assumes a "coming home" effect from some moderate republicans returning to Corbett's column as the election gets closer, Corbett would retain all of the above counties, and likely win most (perhaps all) of these counties:

Armstrong (2006: Casey 50-50)
Columbia (2006: Casey 51-49)
Dauphin (2006: Casey 53-47)
Forest (2006: Casey 52-48)
Indiana (2006: Casey 53-47)
Northumberland (2006: Casey 50-50)
Somerset (2006: Casey 51-49)
Warren (2006: Casey 51-49)

 

[IceSpear]

If Wolf wins by ~22 as some polls suggest, he will likely win most (perhaps all) of these counties:

Cameron (2006: 52-48 Santorum)
Clarion (2006: 53-47 Santorum)
Crawford (2006: 51-49 Santorum)
Huntingdon (2006: 54-46 Santorum, but less than 1,000 vote margin)
McKean (2006: 54-46 Santorum, but less than 1,000 vote margin)
Montour (2006: 54-46 Santorum, but less than 500 vote margin)
Pike (2006: 52-48 Santorum)
Sullivan (2006: 53-47 Santorum)
Susquehanna (2006: 51-49 Santorum)
Venango (2006: 52-48 Santorum)
Wayne (2006: 53-47 Santorum)

However, should Wolf only win by ~15 points, which I think is more likely, as it assumes a "coming home" effect from some moderate republicans returning to Corbett's column as the election gets closer, Corbett would retain all of the above counties, and likely win most (perhaps all) of these counties:

Armstrong (2006: Casey 50-50)
Columbia (2006: Casey 51-49)
Dauphin (2006: Casey 53-47)
Forest (2006: Casey 52-48)
Indiana (2006: Casey 53-47)
Northumberland (2006: Casey 50-50)
Somerset (2006: Casey 51-49)
Warren (2006: Casey 51-49)

Uniform swing doesn't exist, especially at the county level. Casey had more appeal in Pennsyltucky and Western PA than Wolf ever will. Wolf will make up for this loss by crushing Corbett in Eastern PA, even more than Casey crushed Santorum by.

[henster]

Will Wolf break 90% in Philadelphia?

[KCDem]

Corbett hasn't even broke 40% in any poll for well over a year he's in far worse than Santorum ever was.

He's barely even broken 30%...we're heading toward a 30-point win for Wolf.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Will Wolf break 90% in Philadelphia?

If he wins by 21 points+, then he likely will. Otherwise, no.

[Indy Texas]

Does anyone know what the biggest margin of defeat for a sitting governor in any state has been?

[Indy Texas]

Just realized that Tom Corbett would lose election in Texas for being too liberal.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Does anyone know what the biggest margin of defeat for a sitting governor in any state has been?

I found primary defeats here.

[CountyTy90]

Does anyone know what the biggest margin of defeat for a sitting governor in any state has been?

I think we have to go back to 1990 in Rhode Island when 3 term incumbent governor Ed DiPrete lost by a landslide to his two-time challenger Bruce Sundlun, who incidentally went on to loose his primary in 1994. Sundlun defeated DiPrete in his third gubernatorial run by a margin of 74% to 26%. The state's banking system was in ruins and on inauguration day 1991, Sundlun had to close numerous banks and deal with a horrible economy.

[GaussLaw]

Just realized that Tom Corbett would lose election in Texas for being too liberal.

Really?  Most state GOPs tout more education funding.

[Miles]

Does anyone know what the biggest margin of defeat for a sitting governor in any state has been?

I found primary defeats here.

*Clearing my throat*

[Badger]

Well Pennsylvania has become more polarized since 2006 (most states have, but PA has some of the worst of it), so it's very possible that Corbett will lose by a bigger margin than Santorum while still winning more counties.

This. And I'm not yet convinced that Corbett will even lose the popular vote by Santorum levels. He's still got time to potentially (emphasis here) bring some Republican and conservative independent voters home to maybe turn his defeat into merely a bad landslide rather than an historical one.

[henster]

A new poll is out today from RMU with Corbett trailing 56-25(!) he's in far worse shape than Santorum ever was.

[Adam Griffin]

No. As was mentioned, there is more polarity now than there would have been 8 years ago. I think Wolf will win by the same margin or a tad bit more, but Wolf won't do as well in the western part of the state as Casey.

2006:
   

2014: Assuming a 20-point loss when all is said and done:

[NHLiberal]

No. As was mentioned, there is more polarity now than there would have been 8 years ago. I think Wolf will win by the same margin or a tad bit more, but Wolf won't do as well in the western part of the state as Casey.

2006:
   

2014: Assuming a 20-point loss when all is said and done:

What's that one county on the northeast that went R in 2006 but would go D in 2014? Is that area trending D?

[free my dawg]

@NHLiberal: That's Pike County. It's actually very small (about 50k people overall), but growing quickly because it's close to NYC.

I doubt it'll go for Wolf, though - it's still fairly GOP downballot. Maybe if it gets to like 25-30 point landslides, but not 20.

[Badger]

No. As was mentioned, there is more polarity now than there would have been 8 years ago. I think Wolf will win by the same margin or a tad bit more, but Wolf won't do as well in the western part of the state as Casey.

2006:
   

2014: Assuming a 20-point loss when all is said and done:

As fast trending Republican as it is, there's no way Cambria stays (Atlas) blue if Wolf wins by even 10, let alone 20.

Other than Pike County likely flipping for the opposite reason, and maybe even Elk County giving one last hurrah for the Dems, this map is about right in a 20 point Wolf blowout.