It would, but Pryors drop off in the rural counties should take out a few of those. It really depends on how this race goes, if nationalized, most of those rural counties are gone(that was what my first map was showing), but if not, they would stay with him.
Going along with nationalization, just on a side note, I always thought the swing between Lincoln '98 and '04 was interesting:
Her margin of victory was about the same, but she carried fewer counties. Virtually all the improvement came from urban areas whereas she slumped severely in rural counties. 'Kinda mirrors the polarization in most states, especially given it was a Presidential year.
I know the swings around AR-03 were a bit inflated because she ran against Fay Boozman the first time, but the nationalization trend was still pretty clear, even back then.
I wouldn't be surprised if the swing/trend maps for Pryor '02-'14 were similar.
I expect to see similar trends this upcoming election. Benton, Washington, and Fakner should continue their march to the left, while the rural counties should go even further right.
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