Who will win in Arkansas?

[Senator Cris]

Who will win in Arkansas? Pryor or Cotton?

[Person Man]

Who will win in Arkansas? Pryor or Cotton?

If a wave emerges, Cotton will win by double digits, else, which is more likely, Pryor will barely hit 50% and win.

[NHLiberal]

Who will win in Arkansas? Pryor or Cotton?

If a wave emerges, Cotton will win by double digits, else, which is more likely, Pryor will barely hit 50% and win.

Why is there no in between? I don't think Pryor will win, but I don't think Cotton will win by double digits, either.

[Maxwell]

Cotton may win, but he's certainly letting Pryor get a chance to hold on.

[windjammer]

Cotton may win, but he's certainly letting Pryor get a chance to hold on.

[ElectionsGuy]

Cotton

[SWE]

Cotton may win, but he's certainly letting Pryor get a chance to hold on.

[free my dawg]

Unfortunately, Cotton by mid-singles.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton

[Dixie Reborn]

Unfortunately, Cotton by mid-singles.

[TDAS04]

Cotton may win, but he's certainly letting Pryor get a chance to hold on.

[Never]

Cotton

[Suburbia]

Cotton may win, but he's certainly letting Pryor get a chance to hold on.

[IceSpear]

Cotton

[Joe Biden 2020]

Cotton by 5-6.

[RINO Tom]

Unfortunately, I think Pryor will hang on (along with both Hagan and Landrieu, putting me in a tiny minority apparently...).

[JerryArkansas]

Instead of a margin, here's a map of what I think could happen.

[IceSpear]

Instead of a margin, here's a map of what I think could happen.

Isn't that the 2010 map?

[JerryArkansas]

Instead of a margin, here's a map of what I think could happen.

Isn't that the 2010 map?

It's based off of it.  Several differences are there, Pryor should do better in Little Rock, and that should push Pulaski over 60% in his favor.  Also a lot of the counties are closer, most of those 50% counties would be within 3 points.

[Miles]

Instead of a margin, here's a map of what I think could happen.

A bit generous to Cotton, no? Pryor doing that poorly in CD4?

[JerryArkansas]

Instead of a margin, here's a map of what I think could happen.

A bit generous to Cotton, no? Pryor doing that poorly in CD4?

I am questioning that.  It could go either way.  I'm not sure how to rate it.  Pryor should have his base there, but at the same time Cotton is the congressman.  I decided to go for the senorio where he does bad in the 4th and does great in the 1 and 2.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP will win between 3-4 seats. On election night it is a good bet we get the 51 votes needed to keep the senate by winning AK, AR and NC. Pryor win isnt certain, but it is in a realm of possibilty now, than before. I am counting on him.

[Miles]

I am questioning that.  It could go either way.  I'm not sure how to rate it.  Pryor should have his base there, but at the same time Cotton is the congressman.  I decided to go for the senorio where he does bad in the 4th and does great in the 1 and 2.

It doesn't look like Pryor does that great in CD1, either, as he's losing most northern counties.

Even freakin' Gene Jeffress was close to carrying many of those southern AR-04 counties in 2012 though. Pryor in AR-04 would look like this, at minimum, IMO:

[JerryArkansas]

I am questioning that.  It could go either way.  I'm not sure how to rate it.  Pryor should have his base there, but at the same time Cotton is the congressman.  I decided to go for the senorio where he does bad in the 4th and does great in the 1 and 2.

It doesn't look like Pryor does that great in CD1, either, as he's losing most northern counties.

Even freakin' Gene Jeffress was close to carrying many of those southern AR-04 counties in 2012 though. Pryor in AR-04 would look like this, at minimum, IMO:

It would, but Pryors drop off in the rural counties should take out a few of those.   It really depends on how this race goes, if nationalized, most of those rural counties are gone(that was what my first map was showing), but if not, they would stay with him.

[Miles]

It would, but Pryors drop off in the rural counties should take out a few of those.   It really depends on how this race goes, if nationalized, most of those rural counties are gone(that was what my first map was showing), but if not, they would stay with him.

Going along with nationalization, just on a side note, I always thought the swing between Lincoln '98 and '04 was interesting:



Her margin of victory was about the same, but she carried fewer counties. Virtually all the improvement came from urban areas whereas she slumped severely in rural counties. 'Kinda mirrors the polarization in most states, especially given it was a Presidential year.

I know the swings around AR-03 were a bit inflated because she ran against Fay Boozman the first time, but the nationalization trend was still pretty clear, even back then.

I wouldn't be surprised if the swing/trend maps for Pryor '02-'14 were similar.