Huffpost launches Senate forecast model
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Author Topic: Huffpost launches Senate forecast model  (Read 450 times)
Miles
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« on: September 02, 2014, 01:12:47 PM »
Article.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2014, 01:49:40 PM »
Still waiting for 538. This seems really off
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Yank2133
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2014, 02:10:42 PM »
Quote from: FreedomHawk on September 02, 2014, 01:49:40 PM
Still waiting for 538. This seems really off

It is pretty much in line with the Sam Wang's projections and even Sabato is doubting the chances for a GOP takeover of the Senate.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2014, 02:15:00 PM »
There is definitely an asymmetry to the Iowa predictions.
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Person Man
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2014, 02:20:45 PM »
So, the Republicans will probably fall one short if there is no September or October surprise wave.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2014, 02:45:06 PM »
Democrats have issues with automatically losing seats after incumbents retire, and this year is no exception.

(Also, hello 2004!)
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2014, 02:50:50 PM »
TBF, everything but Arkansas makes sense (I have Ernst and Tillis ahead, but those are definitely arguable). I just have no idea how a model could possibly have Pryor leading Cotton.
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SPC
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2014, 02:57:50 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on September 02, 2014, 02:50:50 PM
TBF, everything but Arkansas makes sense (I have Ernst and Tillis ahead, but those are definitely arguable). I just have no idea how a model could possibly have Pryor leading Cotton.

That tends to happen when nobody but Rasmussen has done recent polling in a state.
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Badger
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2014, 05:56:43 PM »
Only a 1 in 3 chance for Sullivan beating Begich? Hold a gun to my head and I'd say Begich wins a close race, but if someone offered me 2-1 odds on it I'd bet $25 on Sullivan.
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windjammer
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2014, 05:57:19 PM »
Why everyone thinks Begich will win???
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Vega
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2014, 06:04:54 PM »
Quote from: windjammer on September 02, 2014, 05:57:19 PM
Why everyone thinks Begich will win???


Because he has been leading in most non-Rasmussen polls.
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Badger
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2014, 06:05:52 PM »
Quote from: windjammer on September 02, 2014, 05:57:19 PM
Why everyone thinks Begich will win???


This was addressed elsewhere, but he's by all reports done a great job at retail campaigning and personal constituent service (especially in Anchorage which is a swing city more than a Democrat hub), he has strong ties with Native Alaskans which are far more of a swing vote than natives in the lower 48, plus the power of incumbency and a well-regarded family name.

All that considered though, and his chances still aren't far above 50-50.
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windjammer
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2014, 06:07:24 PM »
Quote from: Badger on September 02, 2014, 06:05:52 PM
Quote from: windjammer on September 02, 2014, 05:57:19 PM
Why everyone thinks Begich will win???


This was addressed elsewhere, but he's by all reports done a great job at retail campaigning and personal constituent service (especially in Anchorage which is a swing city more than a Democrat hub), he has strong ties with Native Alaskans which are far more of a swing vote than natives in the lower 48, plus the power of incumbency and a well-regarded family name.

All that considered though, and his chances still aren't far above 50-50.

I think that too. He's a good candidate. But seriously, this is clearly a toss up, and a lot of people on this forum believe he's going to win easily. Sad
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backtored
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2014, 06:08:19 PM »
I'm pretty sure that the GOP has a better shot in North Carolina and especially Arkansas than in Iowa.
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