IL-Gov: Quinn gaining on Rauner?

[backtored]

Reboot IL/We Ask America

Rauner (R): 45.5 %
Quinn (D): 37%
Chad Grimm (L): 7%

This is the first WAA poll with the Libertarian included.  Rauner's lead is down from 13 points in the last WAA poll, conducted about a month ago.

[Vega]

I knew this was going to happen, just not as soon as it is.

[Free Bird]

What is it with Illinois politicians always having a depressing last name? And even with the Libertarian, this is still a fine lead, especially with Illinois being how it is and Durbin hanging on fine. That shows a bipartisan hatred of Quinn to me

[muon2]

One key to note is that Quinn's percentage really isn't showing any statistical change. The four previous WAA polls (6/11, 7/8, 7/28, 8/6) had Quinn at 37%, 39%, 33%, and 38%. The poll from late July could be an outlier, which makes the current number for Quinn at 37% look quite consistent. On the Rauner side  that same set of summer polls runs 47%, 51%, 47%, and 51%. Here Rauner's number is at 45.5% and the drop might be meaningful, but also is consistent with the addition of the Libertarian to the polling question and drawing some of the anti-Quinn vote.

If one looks at the wider universe of polling, the HuffPo model was at 47.4% to 40.3% before today. This poll will move both candidates down a bit, but again that's consistent with the addition of a third candidate.

[backtored]

I knew this was going to happen, just not as soon as it is.

I agree.  I suspect it'll end up being pretty close.  I wouldn't be surprised if Rauner went into Election Day with a four point lead and the real result ends up being within a point or two.  Illinois is a fun state like that.

[henster]

Not buying anything from WAA.

[Maxwell]

I want PPP or someone reliable on this. Hell, I'll even take Rasmussen over WAA.

[Vega]

I knew this was going to happen, just not as soon as it is.

I agree.  I suspect it'll end up being pretty close.  I wouldn't be surprised if Rauner went into Election Day with a four point lead and the real result ends up being within a point or two.  Illinois is a fun state like that.

Yep, there is no doubt that Quinn will close the gap to a tie. And on election day, who knows? Of course it'll be Chicago vs. the rest of the state, but still.

[Mr. Illini]

Considering how many thug tactics ILGOP used to keep Grimm off the ballot, I'd say they have been worried about this for awhile. Anti-Quinn Democrats would rather vote third party than for a Republican.

[sg0508]

And again, wait until the last week when all the Cook Democrats come home, even if they're holding their noses.  Watch & learn.