KS-Sen: Taylor drops out
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  KS-Sen: Taylor drops out
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Author Topic: KS-Sen: Taylor drops out  (Read 24492 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2014, 06:00:12 PM »

Spectacular news!
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #26 on: September 03, 2014, 06:05:15 PM »

Washington Post writes: "Orman, who used to be a Democrat and a Republican, has been viewed as a more viable opponent against Sen. Pat Roberts (R), who polls show is vulnerable. Orman has raised a lot more money than Taylor."

This is important for two reasons:

1) It shows that Orman isn't exactly a partisan Democrat as he's aligned himself with both parties in the past
2) He has raised a lot more money than Taylor (despite Taylor leading him in early polls)

Both these points seem to underline that he will be a stronger than usual candidate.
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SPQR
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« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2014, 06:05:20 PM »

Tossout according to Nate Silver,who calls it "VERY tricky" to predict.
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retromike22
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« Reply #28 on: September 03, 2014, 06:07:10 PM »

I wonder if Bob Dole would endorse Greg Orman?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #29 on: September 03, 2014, 06:07:13 PM »

Oh ... I just read some additional info on his departure, found Kansas First News website. It states :

"This decision comes after it was announced Wednesday morning (today) that Independent U.S. Senate candidate Greg Orman had been endorsed by a group of former moderate Republicans in the Kansas Legislature who are unhappy with incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Roberts conservative leanings."

I'm trying to understand if this means that he will more than likely side with the Republicans if he wins. Boy-o-boy .... what will happen ?
(I do believe that Orman has a good chance of taking this seat.)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #30 on: September 03, 2014, 06:09:00 PM »

I wonder if Bob Dole would endorse Greg Orman?

I don't see why he would. Pat Roberts is very much in the Bob Dole mold - conservative, and very dull. If it were against Moran, I could see it happening.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #31 on: September 03, 2014, 06:13:18 PM »

I wonder if Bob Dole would endorse Greg Orman?

I don't see why he would. Pat Roberts is very much in the Bob Dole mold - conservative, and very dull.

Not to sure about the "dull" comparison, but Bob Dole as a "conservative," I think not.
Dole was always well known to be a moderate.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #32 on: September 03, 2014, 06:27:26 PM »

So a bunch of Dems flow to Orman and a bunch flee if he's really running as a centrist/won't say who he'll caucus with.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #33 on: September 03, 2014, 06:32:49 PM »

I wonder if Bob Dole would endorse Greg Orman?

I don't see why he would. Pat Roberts is very much in the Bob Dole mold - conservative, and very dull.

Not to sure about the "dull" comparison, but Bob Dole as a "conservative," I think not.
Dole was always well known to be a moderate.

You sir are quite mistaken. Bob Dole was elected as a conservative, but his temperament was that of a moderate.
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windjammer
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« Reply #34 on: September 03, 2014, 07:01:52 PM »

I guess Davis and Orthman will endorse each other?
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #35 on: September 03, 2014, 07:18:54 PM »

Wow, I can't believe it. Here we have an unexpected interesting election. It's certainly a Toss-up race (who would've guessed a month ago?!).

Let's have Travis Childers dropping out now and supporting a some dude moderate hero, please!

(I'm saying this just in case I have some clairvoyant powers, as I posted this yesterday:

Nice. I hope KS Dems. do the same and endorse Orman.
)


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eric82oslo
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« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2014, 07:23:22 PM »

Wow, I can't believe it. Here we have an unexpected interesting election. It's certainly a Toss-up race (who would've guessed a month ago?!).

Let's have Travis Childers dropping out now and supporting a some dude moderate hero, please!

(I'm saying this just in case I have some clairvoyant powers, as I posted this yesterday:

Nice. I hope KS Dems. do the same and endorse Orman.
)

It seems that the "worst summer ever" is producing more bipartisanship and cooperation across the aisle than we've seen for years, if not decades. Smiley

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/29/summer-2014-was-the-worst-ever.html
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #37 on: September 03, 2014, 07:47:15 PM »

He's not saying who he'll caucus with but I have a feeling an unspoken agreement to caucus with the Dems was part of the deal to get Taylor to leave the race. From what I've gathered about Orman's platform and views, he probably wouldn't feel very at home in a caucus with Ted Cruz and Mike Lee anyway.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #38 on: September 03, 2014, 07:58:22 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2014, 08:00:37 PM by ProudModerate2 »

I wonder if Bob Dole would endorse Greg Orman?

I don't see why he would. Pat Roberts is very much in the Bob Dole mold - conservative, and very dull.

Not to sure about the "dull" comparison, but Bob Dole as a "conservative," I think not.
Dole was always well known to be a moderate.

You sir are quite mistaken. Bob Dole was elected as a conservative, but his temperament was that of a moderate.

Sorry mister ... but it is you who are in error.

Did he have conservative ideals ... yes. But did he also have liberal and moderate views ... very much so (Hmmmm ... maybe that makes him a moderate). Did he run his presidential race as a conservative in the primaries .... well of course. But did he go back to the "center" during the general election ... no brainer.

Even Wikipedia's own page on Bob Dole says that during his most recognizable years in politics, his tenure in the Senate, he was known as a moderate Sad

Dole had a moderate voting record and was widely considered to be one of the few Kansas Republicans who could bridge the gap between the moderate and conservative wings of the Kansas Republican Party. As a Congressman in the early '60s, Dole supported the major civil rights bills, which appealed to moderates. When Johnson proposed the Great Society in 1964–65, Dole voted against some War on Poverty measures like public-housing subsidies and Medicare, thus appealing to conservatives. Dole's first speech in the Senate in 1969 was a plea for federal aid for the handicapped. Later, as a member of the Senate Select Committee on Nutrition and Human Needs, Dole joined liberal Senator George McGovern to lower eligibility requirements for federal food stamps, a liberal goal that was supported by Kansas farmers.

Dole's hawkishness on the Vietnam War and on crime issues kept him in good standing with the right wing. When they heard Nixon might make Dole chairman of the Republican National Committee, half the Republican Senators protested, especially moderates who feared Dole would direct party assets to conservatives. They were wrong, as Dole in fact offered something to all Republican factions.


And if you go to the Wikipedia page titled "Factions in the Republican Party (United States)" you will find Bob Dole's name referenced in/under the "Moderate" section on this Wiki page (amazing). I don't see him listed anywhere else on this page (no other faction). Here is the Wiki quote in the Moderate section :

The Republican Majority for Choice is a PAC of and for pro-choice Republicans, and is often allied with the moderate branch of the party. Former U.S. Senate Majority Leader and 1996 Presidential nominee Bob Dole has supported the "Main Street" Republicans.
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Vega
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« Reply #39 on: September 03, 2014, 08:07:54 PM »

Jacking a couple paragraphs from Wikipedia doesn't prove your argument.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #40 on: September 03, 2014, 08:12:24 PM »

With this development, I am shifting the race into the toss-up column.

Go Orman!
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #41 on: September 03, 2014, 08:14:44 PM »

With this development, I am shifting the race into the toss-up column.

Go Orman!

Yet you have Kansas as Safe R, despite Brownback not leading in a single non-YouGov poll since April (or since January if you exclude Rassy as well)
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #42 on: September 03, 2014, 08:15:21 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2014, 08:37:12 PM by ProudModerate2 »

Jacking a couple paragraphs from Wikipedia doesn't prove your argument.

Maybe or maybe not .... but it's a hell of a lot more information than the-other-guy has provided, when all he has done is just state that Dole was a conservative (No other evidence or proof). Now I'm sure you will agree with that.
;-)

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Maxwell
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« Reply #43 on: September 03, 2014, 08:44:15 PM »

Jacking a couple paragraphs from Wikipedia doesn't prove your argument.

Maybe or maybe not .... but it's a hell of a lot more information than the-other-guy has on just saying that Dole was a conservative. (Now I'm sure you will agree with that.)


During Bob Dole's time he was a certifiable conservative. He scored an 87 from the American Conservative Union in his last year (I can bold too). That's in the middle... of Republicans. Thus, conservative. Sure, Bob Dole made deals with Democrats, that doesn't make him a moderate like you suggest. I mean, Utah Senator Bob Bennett worked with Oregon Senator Ron Wyden on a healthcare bill, do you not think he's a conservative?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #44 on: September 03, 2014, 09:00:25 PM »

With this development, I am shifting the race into the toss-up column.

Go Orman!

Yet you have Kansas as Safe R, despite Brownback not leading in a single non-YouGov poll since April (or since January if you exclude Rassy as well)
I don't normally permit myself to change safe ratings (I launched my ratings in January, back before anyone was even thinking about Brownback being in danger), though if that race still looks the way it does now a month from now, I will make an exception.

This (and the AK Gov race, which is also getting a substantial downgrade) are special cases because they changed from republican vs. democrat to republican vs. independent, so have essentially become different races, so that is why, in this case, I have made an exception to my rule against changing Safe Ratings (which I have so that 'Safe' doesn't seem like another way of saying 'Strong Lean') .
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2014, 09:05:00 PM »
« Edited: September 03, 2014, 09:13:37 PM by eric82oslo »

Nate has released his first comments on the upgraded race.

"But Orman had raised more money than Taylor — about $625,000 in individual contributions to Taylor’s $120,000 as of July 13 — and probably had more momentum, having recently received endorsements from a bipartisan group of legislators."

Now that's a bit of a money gap. More than five times as much in fact.

He also writes that Orman in the past has donated money to Al Franken, Scott Brown and Obama.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-senate-race-in-kansas-just-got-crazy/

"In this case, however, we have only one poll of the Orman-Roberts matchup (and it was from the polling firm PPP, which has a series of methodological problems and which surveyed the matchup when it was still just a hypothetical possibility). So the model comes out somewhere between the survey and the fundamentals rating. It projects a narrow 2-point victory for Roberts, and gives him a 56 percent chance of winning against 44 percent for Orman.

For all intents and purposes, that makes the race a tossup. But it’s also a totally wild guess. The model is designed to recognize that the outcome is extraordinarily uncertain when the polls and the fundamentals diverge so much. So the margin of error on the forecast is enormous — the 90 percent confidence interval on the forecast runs from a 20-point Orman win to a 23-point victory for Roberts."
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2014, 09:10:04 PM »

I haven't been following this race at all. How in God's name is this happening in Kansas? I'm still amazed that Brownback is in trouble, none the less that this race is in such weird shape Tongue.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2014, 09:17:22 PM »

I haven't been following this race at all. How in God's name is this happening in Kansas? I'm still amazed that Brownback is in trouble, none the less that this race is in such weird shape Tongue.

I think the Tea Party just went so overboard in Kansas that people finally took notice.

Once in a great while, that happens.
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Never
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« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2014, 09:21:33 PM »

I haven't been following this race at all. How in God's name is this happening in Kansas? I'm still amazed that Brownback is in trouble, none the less that this race is in such weird shape Tongue.

I think the main thing is that neither Roberts nor Brownback are high-quality candidates in their own right, and with acceptable alternatives, like Orman and Davis, that kind of shortcoming can still adversely impact candidates even in a state like Kansas.
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Flake
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« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2014, 09:23:28 PM »

Excuse me while I change my Senate prediction...
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