KS-Sen: Taylor drops out

[Tender Branson]

The KS Supreme Court will hear the Taylor-case today, just 1 day ahead of the ballot-printing deadline:

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http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article2116230.html

[Flake]

Hopefully he can get his name removed from the ballot.

[Slander and/or Libel]

Any thoughts on the fact in the event of a tied Senate, Orman would have to be known as the guy who (by appearances) single-handedly throws the Senate to the Democrats if he caucuses with them? That would presumably make for an effective attack ad come the 2020 election and might dissuade him now. Then again, it's tempered by the fact it's six years later (meaning voters might care less and also Orman might willingly make that sacrifice in exchange for supporting the party he presumably wants to).

I've been thinking that Orman's got to have calculated that he's likely to be a one term senator no matter what he chooses. If he caucuses with the Dems, he gets attacked by the Republicans come re-election time in 2020 and probably loses. If he caucuses with the Republicans, he gets attacked as not even a RINO and gets ousted by a real Republican in 2020. If it comes down to 49D-50R and he's got to make a decision, I feel like it's got to be based on whatever he actually believes, since he's not likely to stay for more than one term.

[Senator Cris]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb0wR1qCwyo

Great ad by Roberts campaign.

[solarstorm]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb0wR1qCwyo

Great ad by Roberts campaign.

Orman seemed truly nervous during the debate...

[eric82oslo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb0wR1qCwyo

Great ad by Roberts campaign.

Don't know if it was great exactly, but at least it was funny, with Roberts screaming the hell out his lungs like the devil at Orman. At least Orman had the decency to look away and not just stand there and take his sh**t.

[Lief 🗽]

The second half of the ad is good. The first half is a pretty boiler plate Republican negative ad, just as likely to reinforce Orman's bipartisan/independent message as anything else. I'm also not so sure attacking Orman for being a liberal Obamabot and then attacking him for agreeing too much with the state's conservative Republican senator makes much sense at all.

[Lief 🗽]

Election Law Blog says that based on oral arguments it's likely that Taylor's name will be taken off the ballot: http://electionlawblog.org/?p=65498

Wonderful news!

[Bacon King]

wow Orman is twitchy as all hell in that ad

[Brittain33]

Kris Kobach spits in the face of democracy once again. Nothing to see here, move on.

The law is pretty clear: "Any person who has been nominated by any means for any national, state, county or township office who declares that they are incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected may cause such person’s name to be withdrawn from nomination by a request in writing, signed by the person and acknowledged before an officer qualified to take acknowledgments of deeds."

If he didn't declare that he was incapable of fulfilling the duties of the office, he can't withdraw.  Blame the legislature for crafting the law, not the person enforcing it.

Even if the SOS's office helped Taylor craft the letter, is there any evidence that Bryant was aware of the provision?  If he wasn't, then that's arguably grounds he should be fired for doing a poor job, but it's ultimately Taylor's responsibility to ensure that his campaign follows the law.

Inks, you put up a good fight for Kobach here, but his lawyer had to admit today to the court that the SOS approved withdrawal from the ballot in the past for several candidates who did the same thing Taylor did. Kobach decided to change the standard of compliance when the removal had the potential to affect his party in a detrimental way.

[Tender Branson]

Suck it, Kobach:

Kansas judges question why Democrat kept on ballot

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[windjammer]

So a majority has been appointed by Sebelius?
Good news!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Splendid news!

[ProudModerate2]

... (Kobach's) lawyer had to admit today to the court that the SOS approved withdrawal from the ballot in the past for several candidates who did the same thing Taylor did. Kobach decided to change the standard of compliance when the removal had the potential to affect his party in a detrimental way.

Wow.
If this is true, this is huge. I very much doubt the KS Supreme Court will allow this kind of double-standard and prejudicial decision making by the SOS's Office to stand.

It looks like Taylor's name will be off the ballot.

[ProudModerate2]

And on a different note .... has anyone noticed the new poll that was released in Kansas.
As I expected, Orman was going to increase his lead in the polls, as more and more people in that State became informed that Taylor had withdrawn.

Orman now leads with a spread of 7 percentage points

Conducted by PPP. Poll date of Sept 14th. 1328 likely voters. MOE +/- 2.7 %.

Orman (Ind) .....  41%
Roberts (Rep) ..  34%
Taylor (Dem) ...  6%
Undecided .......  19%

[Maxwell]

PPP holds the exact same 10 point advantage for Orman as the last one. I think this changes to Toss-up Tilt I, but this race is fast moving, so I expect this to tighten in the next couple of weeks. If it doesn't, I'd say Orman is favored, as we've had ten point races that we are calling Likely or even Safe holds.

[Brittain33]

Republican losing a senate race in Kansas vs. an incumbent recovering from numbers like this with Taylor's support waiting in the wings for Orman.

Which is harder to believe?

[Maxwell]

Republican losing a senate race in Kansas vs. an incumbent recovering from numbers like this with Taylor's support waiting in the wings for Orman.

Which is harder to believe?

I think this is a pretty odd and damn near unprecedented thing to happen, so I think the obvious thing to do is to wait and see.

If I cared about either one of these people, I would start getting pretty pessimistic for Pat Roberts.

[Andrew1]

What about the news that Kobach may insist Democrats appoint a replacement?

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Also, interestingly, Lt Gov Mead Treadwell allowed the Walker/Mallot switch in Alaska without a fuss.

[Keystone Phil]

Orman's reaction after Roberts confronted him was about as "slimy politician" as one can appear. Just run that ad nauseam. The guy's ratings will tumble soon enough.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Orman's reaction after Roberts confronted him was about as "slimy politician" as one can appear. Just run that ad nauseam. The guy's ratings will tumble soon enough.

Colombia will win the World Cup.

[Keystone Phil]

Orman's reaction after Roberts confronted him was about as "slimy politician" as one can appear. Just run that ad nauseam. The guy's ratings will tumble soon enough.

Colombia will win the World Cup.

What was your prediction? In fact, what's your prediction for this race? I notice a lot of cowards like to bring up wrong predictions but usually don't go out on a limb themselves.

[windjammer]

Phil, the problem is that Orman will caucuse with the majority party. That will be difficult to sell that for the reps as "WE MUST VOTE FOR ROBERTS IN ORDER TO GAIN THE SENATE", don't you think???


I believe Orman will lose though.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, the problem is that Orman will caucuse with the majority party. That will be difficult to sell that for the reps as "WE MUST VOTE FOR ROBERTS IN ORDER TO GAIN THE SENATE", don't you think???

That's exactly what this race will come down to: this guy possibly determining who controls the Senate. And everyone is going to know that Orman won't commit to either side yet so, yes, plenty of Republicans that don't care for Roberts will hold their nose and vote for him, not wanting to take a risk. It's a rather easy sell.

[KCDem]

Phil, the problem is that Orman will caucuse with the majority party. That will be difficult to sell that for the reps as "WE MUST VOTE FOR ROBERTS IN ORDER TO GAIN THE SENATE", don't you think???

That's exactly what this race will come down to: this guy possibly determining who controls the Senate. And everyone is going to know that Orman won't commit to either side yet so, yes, plenty of Republicans that don't care for Roberts will hold their nose and vote for him, not wanting to take a risk. It's a rather easy sell.

Just like Brownback will regain the lead and win. Ok, we're still waiting on that. Could be a while...