KS-Sen: Taylor drops out

[The Other Castro]

Sorry for posting this in two threads.

From Orman's website

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So this math confuses me. Correct me if I am wrong. If Orman wins, Republicans would need to win 7 seats for him to commit GOP? 6 would then be a tie, and goes into wheel and deal territory, and 5 Dems would be in control, so he commits to Democrats? Or does "clearly in the majority" mean he will only commit if his decision has no effect and one party leads the Senate by more than 2?

Assuming he wins, he'll go with the Republicans if they have 51 without him, but will most likely go with the democrats if its 49 (dems)-50 (reps) thus making it a dem majority with the biden tie vote.

[The Other Castro]

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That makes sense, so then if Roberts loses, GOP needs to pick up 7 seats. If they do so, he caucuses with them, and the GOP has a 52-48 edge.

Yep, which is why the GOP is slightly more likely to gain 52 or 50 seats than 51 seats (weird)

[The Other Castro]

Any thoughts on the fact in the event of a tied Senate, Orman would have to be known as the guy who (by appearances) single-handedly throws the Senate to the Democrats if he caucuses with them? That would presumably make for an effective attack ad come the 2020 election and might dissuade him now. Then again, it's tempered by the fact it's six years later (meaning voters might care less and also Orman might willingly make that sacrifice in exchange for supporting the party he presumably wants to).

If he was the deciding vote for Democrats, he might follow through on his pledge to not vote for Reid (and maybe get King to join him). He'd probably make up for giving Dems the Senate by also being known as the guy that ousted Reid for someone like McCaskill or Heitkamp

[The Other Castro]

"Today, the Kansas Supreme Court deliberately, and for political purposes, disenfranchised over 65,000 voters."-Roberts campaign

I wonder how they would be reacting if Orman had requested to be taken off the ballot instead...

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/dhellingkc/status/513007038201208832

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This is verging on electoral fraud now...