Who'll win in Kansas?

[eric82oslo]

Democrat Chad Taylor has just dropped out of the race, so now is the question who'll get the momentum of the remaining two candidates. According to reports, a bunch of former moderate Republicans in the Kansas legislature have endorsed Greg Orman, the independent candidate.

[Maxwell]

No matter how many endorsements Orman has, dude is the least substantive candidate I've ever seen. Pat Roberts will be able to knock him down and win, maybe not comfortably, but win.

[7,052,770]

It will be difficult for Orman to keep a bunch of Republican votes now that he's the de facto Democratic candidate, but I guess it's possible...

[KCDem]

No matter how many endorsements Orman has, dude is the least substantive candidate I've ever seen. Pat Roberts will be able to knock him down and win, maybe not comfortably, but win.

At least Orman lives in Kansas. And Pat Roberts isn't really that substantive either.

[Free Bird]

No matter how many endorsements Orman has, dude is the least substantive candidate I've ever seen. Pat Roberts will be able to knock him down and win, maybe not comfortably, but win.

At least Orman lives in Kansas. And Pat Roberts isn't really that substantive either.

But, muh incumbency
- you a week or so ago

[Eraserhead]

Too early to say. We'll have to see how things shake in the next few weeks. It'll probably be close though.

[tmthforu94]

The target hasn't been on Orman's back for a second - Roberts has been attacked during the primary for the last year.

Roberts wins by mid-single digits.

[backtored]

I think that this race will be a lot of fun to watch, but I doubt that Roberts is in much trouble at all.  I suspect he wins by 7, 8, 9 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Too early to say. We'll have to see how things shake in the next few weeks. It'll probably be close though.

The wildcard will be knocking off Brownback. If we can come close to doing that, senate race will come our way.

[Dixie Reborn]

Despite all this hype, Roberts will still win.

[GaussLaw]

Too early to say. We'll have to see how things shake in the next few weeks. It'll probably be close though.

The wildcard will be knocking off Brownback. If we can come close to doing that, senate race will come our way.

What are you talking about?  Roberts is in WAAY better shape than Brownback, especially given that Taylor might stay on the ballot.

[ElectionsGuy]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

[GaussLaw]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I agree.

This reminds me of Bob Kerrey's entrance in Nebraska.  He was always way overestimated, and I think Orman will be too.

[KCDem]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I agree.

This reminds me of Bob Kerrey's entrance in Nebraska.  He was always way overestimated, and I think Orman will be too.

Except Bob Kerrey never led a single poll in Nebraska.

[ElectionsGuy]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I agree.

This reminds me of Bob Kerrey's entrance in Nebraska.  He was always way overestimated, and I think Orman will be too.

Except Bob Kerrey never led a single poll in Nebraska.

What's your point? There's been no poll thus far of solely a Roberts vs. Orman match up. We don't even know yet that Taylor will be off the ballot. Roberts has lead all the polls so far anyway.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I agree.

This reminds me of Bob Kerrey's entrance in Nebraska.  He was always way overestimated, and I think Orman will be too.

Except Bob Kerrey never led a single poll in Nebraska.

What's your point? There's been no poll thus far of solely a Roberts vs. Orman match up. We don't even know yet that Taylor will be off the ballot. Roberts has lead all the polls so far anyway.

Exactly this. Taylor dropped out yesterday. Especially with an unprecedented race like this we can't jump to conclusions based on wishful thinking and now-outdated polling.

[Miles]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I agree.

This reminds me of Bob Kerrey's entrance in Nebraska.  He was always way overestimated, and I think Orman will be too.

Except Bob Kerrey never led a single poll in Nebraska.

What's your point? There's been no poll thus far of solely a Roberts vs. Orman match up. We don't even know yet that Taylor will be off the ballot. Roberts has lead all the polls so far anyway.

PPP had Orman leading Roberts 43/33 in a one-on-one race.

[KCDem]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I agree.

This reminds me of Bob Kerrey's entrance in Nebraska.  He was always way overestimated, and I think Orman will be too.

Except Bob Kerrey never led a single poll in Nebraska.

What's your point? There's been no poll thus far of solely a Roberts vs. Orman match up. We don't even know yet that Taylor will be off the ballot. Roberts has lead all the polls so far anyway.

As Miles said, there was a PPP poll putting Orman up 43-33. As it stands now, Orman wins by 15.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

[ProudModerate2]

PPP had Orman leading Roberts 43/33 in a one-on-one race.

PPP surveyed 903 likely voters from August 14th to 17th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.3%.
80% of interviews for the poll were conducted over the phone with 20% interviewed over the internet to reach respondents who don’t have landline telephones.

Q11.  If the candidates for Senate this fall were just
Republican Pat Roberts and independent Greg
Orman, who would you vote for?

Pat Roberts..................................................... 33%
Greg Orman.................................................... 43%
Not sure ............................................ ............ 24%

[NHLiberal]

I think Roberts will win. His background sounds really shaky in the Washington Post article and I'm not sure his moderate hero tendencies/vagueness on everything will be able to keep him relevant long enough. I can very easily envision him fading fast. Especially if Roberts and the NRSC define him as the de facto Democrat in the race (which may be a bit harder if Taylor remains on the ballot, but that of course would be balanced out by the fact that Taylor would draw away a small percentage of votes from Orman).

[Free Bird]

Orman is pretty much me, but I still think Roberts will squeak by. Interesting how this year has made so many once boring races suddenly competitive.

[solarstorm]

No matter who wins; one thing will remain unchanged:
No Democrat will have won a senatorial election in Kansas since 1932.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Orman is pretty much me, but I still think Roberts will squeak by. Interesting how this year has made so many once boring races suddenly competitive.

Yes and yes.

Plus the potential maps are hilarious to think about. A Republican controlled Senate w/ Orman caucusing with the majority would almost qualify as a scalp for the primary crowd.

[ElectionsGuy]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I agree.

This reminds me of Bob Kerrey's entrance in Nebraska.  He was always way overestimated, and I think Orman will be too.

Except Bob Kerrey never led a single poll in Nebraska.

What's your point? There's been no poll thus far of solely a Roberts vs. Orman match up. We don't even know yet that Taylor will be off the ballot. Roberts has lead all the polls so far anyway.

PPP had Orman leading Roberts 43/33 in a one-on-one race.

I must have missed this? I apologize. There's good evidence to point that this race is more competitive than it was, but not 'Orman will win without a doubt' nonsense. If Orman does end up winning, the only thing that matters in terms of control is who he caucuses with. If he caucuses with Dems, I think Kansas will kick him out in 2020.