Who'll win in Kansas?

[Badger]

Probably Roberts, but if so it'll be closer than any KS race has a right to be, and will divert funds from places like NC, AK, AR, etc.

[free my dawg]

Orman. Hiring a perennial loser as your campaign manager is a recipe for disaster.

[NHLiberal]

Probably Roberts, but if so it'll be closer than any KS race has a right to be, and will divert funds from places like NC, AK, AR, etc.

And this is one case where the "divert funds" argument is actually valid. It usually isn't because if it's diverting funds for one party, it's diverting funds for the other party, but since national Democrats can't/won't spend money on Orman, this would really only hurt the Republicans.

[Unimog]

Right now still Roberts, the situation is still developing. To immediately jump on board with the notion that Orman will win is very premature.

I think Roberts will win 7 - 10 %.

[VPH]

Living in Kansas and being quite politically involved here, I'm thinking Orman will pull off an upset win. Head to head, PPP has him 10% up on Roberts, but with Taylor still on the ballot I worry. It depends how the ballot name challenge goes. If Taylor's name is removed or if Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor, Orman will win. He still has pretty low name recognition, but he has resources like crazy. In the debate yesterday, he came out of the gate a bit cautious but then proceeded to hammer Roberts, who said "Harry Reid" 22 times and had to ask the moderator to calm the crowd. Roberts' residency issues will harm him in the end. Even Republicans here think he's out of touch.

[Vega]

If Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor

Why would they be doing GOTV for a candidate who isn't in the race?

[Maxwell]

Living in Kansas and being quite politically involved here, I'm thinking Orman will pull off an upset win. Head to head, PPP has him 10% up on Roberts, but with Taylor still on the ballot I worry. It depends how the ballot name challenge goes. If Taylor's name is removed or if Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor, Orman will win. He still has pretty low name recognition, but he has resources like crazy. In the debate yesterday, he came out of the gate a bit cautious but then proceeded to hammer Roberts, who said "Harry Reid" 22 times and had to ask the moderator to calm the crowd. Roberts' residency issues will harm him in the end. Even Republicans here think he's out of touch.

Orman also agreed with at least half of Roberts positions, making his candidacy basically pointless.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I think Roberts will still win, but it will by only 2-3 points.  We'll have to see what new polling indicates in the post-Taylor race, but for now I will still say Roberts by 2, maybe  3 points.

[NHLiberal]

Living in Kansas and being quite politically involved here, I'm thinking Orman will pull off an upset win. Head to head, PPP has him 10% up on Roberts, but with Taylor still on the ballot I worry. It depends how the ballot name challenge goes. If Taylor's name is removed or if Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor, Orman will win. He still has pretty low name recognition, but he has resources like crazy. In the debate yesterday, he came out of the gate a bit cautious but then proceeded to hammer Roberts, who said "Harry Reid" 22 times and had to ask the moderator to calm the crowd. Roberts' residency issues will harm him in the end. Even Republicans here think he's out of touch.

How exactly does one support Collins over Bellows but Teachout over Cuomo?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Can someone explain to me why this is even close?

[Lief 🗽]

Roberts is old and out of touch, has run a horrible/non-existent campaign, arguably doesn't really even live in Kansas anymore, and the teabagger Republicans in Topeka have run the state into the ground.

[Vega]

Roberts is the worst U.S. Senator up for re-election this year. He's done nothing.

[backtored]

Roberts by 7 or 8.

[KCDem]

Orman by 15. It's going to be a blowout, folks.

[RogueBeaver]

Roberts.

[VPH]

Living in Kansas and being quite politically involved here, I'm thinking Orman will pull off an upset win. Head to head, PPP has him 10% up on Roberts, but with Taylor still on the ballot I worry. It depends how the ballot name challenge goes. If Taylor's name is removed or if Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor, Orman will win. He still has pretty low name recognition, but he has resources like crazy. In the debate yesterday, he came out of the gate a bit cautious but then proceeded to hammer Roberts, who said "Harry Reid" 22 times and had to ask the moderator to calm the crowd. Roberts' residency issues will harm him in the end. Even Republicans here think he's out of touch.

How exactly does one support Collins over Bellows but Teachout over Cuomo?

I like the NSA and don't want to legalize pot. Those are Bellows' two major issues it seems. The fact that Bellows calls herself "Libertarian" makes me mad. Also, I believe Collins is a key liaison between Repubs and Democrats. With Teachout, part of it came from Cuomo's blatant corruption, and part of it because of Teachout's campaign focus. I'm a weird person, politically.

[VPH]

If Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor

Why would they be doing GOTV for a candidate who isn't in the race?

I mean we have to tell voters not to vote for Taylor, especially if his name for sure remains on the ballot.

[KCDem]

Living in Kansas and being quite politically involved here, I'm thinking Orman will pull off an upset win. Head to head, PPP has him 10% up on Roberts, but with Taylor still on the ballot I worry. It depends how the ballot name challenge goes. If Taylor's name is removed or if Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor, Orman will win. He still has pretty low name recognition, but he has resources like crazy. In the debate yesterday, he came out of the gate a bit cautious but then proceeded to hammer Roberts, who said "Harry Reid" 22 times and had to ask the moderator to calm the crowd. Roberts' residency issues will harm him in the end. Even Republicans here think he's out of touch.

How exactly does one support Collins over Bellows but Teachout over Cuomo?

I like the NSA and don't want to legalize pot. Those are Bellows' two major issues it seems. The fact that Bellows calls herself "Libertarian" makes me mad. Also, I believe Collins is a key liaison between Repubs and Democrats. With Teachout, part of it came from Cuomo's blatant corruption, and part of it because of Teachout's campaign focus. I'm a weird person, politically.

Obvious troll position is obvious.

One doesn't like the NSA. One may find it necessary or useful, but you can't just "like" it.

[free my dawg]

Living in Kansas and being quite politically involved here, I'm thinking Orman will pull off an upset win. Head to head, PPP has him 10% up on Roberts, but with Taylor still on the ballot I worry. It depends how the ballot name challenge goes. If Taylor's name is removed or if Dems do well at GOTV for Orman and NOT Taylor, Orman will win. He still has pretty low name recognition, but he has resources like crazy. In the debate yesterday, he came out of the gate a bit cautious but then proceeded to hammer Roberts, who said "Harry Reid" 22 times and had to ask the moderator to calm the crowd. Roberts' residency issues will harm him in the end. Even Republicans here think he's out of touch.

How exactly does one support Collins over Bellows but Teachout over Cuomo?

I like the NSA and don't want to legalize pot. Those are Bellows' two major issues it seems. The fact that Bellows calls herself "Libertarian" makes me mad. Also, I believe Collins is a key liaison between Repubs and Democrats. With Teachout, part of it came from Cuomo's blatant corruption, and part of it because of Teachout's campaign focus. I'm a weird person, politically.

ITT: people repeat pro-Collins talking points and not look at the actual campaign.

[JohnCA246]

From Orman's website

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So this math confuses me. Correct me if I am wrong. If Orman wins, Republicans would need to win 7 seats for him to commit GOP? 6 would then be a tie, and goes into wheel and deal territory, and 5 Dems would be in control, so he commits to Democrats?

[Brittain33]

Can someone explain to me why this is even close?

Brownback, Kobach, and Roberts are *all* polling in the mid-40s when they should all be easily over 50. Something's happening in Kansas this year following the purge of the moderates in 2012.

[Maxwell]

From Orman's website

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So this math confuses me. Correct me if I am wrong. If Orman wins, Republicans would need to win 7 seats for him to commit GOP? 6 would then be a tie, and goes into wheel and deal territory, and 5 Dems would be in control, so he commits to Democrats?

With such strong Democratic support, I'm not sure that can be the case, though he could prove me wrong.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is the GOP's control of the state House or Senate; or any of Kansas's federal Reps in any danger from the unpopular top ticket duo?

[SteveRogers]

From Orman's website

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So this math confuses me. Correct me if I am wrong. If Orman wins, Republicans would need to win 7 seats for him to commit GOP? 6 would then be a tie, and goes into wheel and deal territory, and 5 Dems would be in control, so he commits to Democrats?

So how serious do we think Orman is about not voting for either Reid or McConnell for Majority leader? If one party or the other wins a majority without him, that's an easy promise to keep since his protest vote for Heitkamp/ Murkowski (lol) wouldn't effect the outcome. But if it's D-49, R-50, Orman-1? Conventional wisdom says he probably caucuses with democrats in that scenario, and Biden's tie-breaker gives Dems control of the Senate. But that doesn't work if Orman votes for Heitkamp or some other Democrat besides Reid. Then it's McConnel- 50, Reid-49, Heitkamp- 1, and no one has a majority for majority leader, and Biden no longer gets to cast a tie-breaking vote because there's not a tie either.

It's a rather silly thing to say in the same breath as acknowledging that you might be the tie-breaking vote.

[tmthforu94]

Is the GOP's control of the state House or Senate; or any of Kansas's federal Reps in any danger from the unpopular top ticket duo?

Republicans will have small losses in the House and Senate but will still have a commanding majority.

As for the Congressional races, none are in trouble. Jenkins will probably win by 10 points or so and that'll be the closest race.