Austria as a German state (Federal & State election results)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:21:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Austria as a German state (Federal & State election results)
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Austria as a German state (Federal & State election results)  (Read 1714 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 04, 2014, 01:35:31 PM »

Imagine Austria was incorporated into Germany after WW2 and would now be the 17th federal state.

The current prime minister of the state of Austria is Erwin Pröll from the conservative CDU, head of the state since the 1994 Austrian state election (re-elected in the 1999, 2004 and 2009 state elections).

During the last year, the AfD has emerged on the policial stage in Germany, drawing votes from the CDU and the FDP.

What did the federal election result in the state of Austria look like in September 2013 ?

And how would it vote in the 2014 state election (Pröll is running for another term) ?

(some background: the economic situation is roughly that of Bayern or Baden-Württemberg, which means low unemployment, and the government of Pröll is more or less autocratic similar to the former CSU-governor Stoiber in Bavaria)

Predict the 2013 federal election results and the 2014 state election results for:

CDU
SPD
Greens
Left
AfD
FDP
Pirates
Others
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2014, 01:38:31 PM »

I would imagine there could potentially be room for an 'Austrian' party/ies in such a scenario.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2014, 01:40:32 PM »

I would imagine there could potentially be room for an 'Austrian' party/ies in such a scenario.

For hypothetical purposes: There could have been some during the 1950s, but for 2013/14 predictions please only use the current German parties.
Logged
politicus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,174
Denmark


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2014, 01:47:17 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2014, 01:49:03 PM by politicus »

There is an International What-if board for this kind a thing.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=73.0

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2014, 01:49:29 PM »


Yeah, but please let it here for a few days and move it later.

(more people watch this board than the other one)
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 04, 2014, 05:51:32 PM »

Not going to bother with actual numbers but...

CDU: Much more popular than OVP, but not quite at CSU levels. Take large swaths of the right-liberal vote as well.
SPD: Somewhat better than SPO. Take some working-class FPO votes
AfD: Austria is their best state. Pick up a large swath of the FPO/TS/BZO vote.
Green: Same as your Greens.
FDP: Austria is probably better than average for them. They might barely scrap 5% if the election was today.
NPD: Between the three far right parties, I imagine they could scrape over the threshold.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2014, 02:41:28 AM »

Questionable: Was WestVienna a land of its own before 1990? Was the deprived East absorbed by wealthy WesternAustria (capitol Salzburg)?

If we assume, that a neutral hence undivided A. joined Germany in 1990 (totally surreal), then I would think: FDP is surely very weak (as in Bavaria), Haider was - after countless quarrels with his party-colleague Schönhuber - a non-partisan LandRat of LandKreis Klagenfurt  (RegierungsBezirk Carinthia), SPD dominates, because CSU-Ö cannot absorb the FPÖ/BZÖ/TS-voters, who partly try it now and again with AfD (westernA.) & NPD (eastern&southernA.).

Nope, for hypothetical purposes we assume that Austria joined West-Germany right after WW2 and became a state, implementing all of its democratic framework (constitution, media, school system, police system, military etc.)

In this case it would be unlikely that a Jörg Haider would ever had the chance to become a major political figure in Austria, because the German media would have "written him down" (the German media is much more powerful in discrediting right-wing figures than the Austrian media). Which would also mean that the AfD would probably not be strongest in Austria, but rather like it is now in Saxony, while the state of Austria would have more like a Bavarian AfD showing.

I assume the 2013 federal election result would have been something like:

43% CDU
25% SPD
10% Greens
  6% AfD
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  2% Pirates
  2% FW
  1% NPD
  3% Others

Taking into account the election results of the 2 southern conservative states of Bayern and BW.
Logged
Cranberry
TheCranberry
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,501
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2014, 02:56:07 AM »

I would assume the FDP would be far more influential in the richer areas in the West, Voralrberg, Tirol, Salzburg; and around Vienna and possibly Graz, while they would absolutely fail, to say so, in Oberösterreich, Kärnten, Burgenland, Ober-Steiermark...

Plus, I seriously doubt that the CDU wouldn't run a CSU-like affiliate in Austria, maybe even the CSU...

I also doubt that the AfD would be so much better in Austria than in the rest of Germany...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2014, 03:02:30 AM »

I would assume the FDP would be far more influential in the richer areas in the West, Voralrberg, Tirol, Salzburg; and around Vienna and possibly Graz, while they would absolutely fail, to say so, in Oberösterreich, Kärnten, Burgenland, Ober-Steiermark...

Plus, I seriously doubt that the CDU wouldn't run a CSU-like affiliate in Austria, maybe even the CSU...

I also doubt that the AfD would be so much better in Austria than in the rest of Germany...

Yepp.

Maybe the CVP (Christliche Volkspartei, Christian People's Party) ?

Plus, after decades of "Germanisation" in the schools and media, as well as sharing the left-wing RAF terror in the 70s, immigration from other parts of Germany (like in Bavaria), Austria would probably be much less nationalist-minded than it would be as an independent country. Which means less than average AfD and NPD support. Even if Haider managed to become NPD-leader in the 80s, there would have been massive student protests against it, media onslaught and the NPD/Haider would have likely went down in flames.
Logged
Cranberry
TheCranberry
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,501
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2014, 03:11:38 AM »

CVP would be a good name.

I doubt that Haider would choose the NPD, as they are outspoken neo-nazis. He would rather found an own party, that would go more of the FPÖ way, neo-nazism but softer. But either way, he would never get as big as he did in Austria...

Austria would naturally attract many immigrants from other parts of Germany, I would think, due to natural beauty and, I think still, high standard of living.
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2014, 04:26:27 AM »

A rough scenario, how this could have happened

It is said, that Berija and his likings weren't very interested in Germany, especially after the 17th of July. So if they had succeeded it probably would open a window for German reunification in a neutralist manner (no Nato and Montanunion integration and now ousting of the SED/KPD/KPÖ whatsoever. Maybe the Germany-USSR-relations would have some Finnish style in it.

Konrad Adenauer sees the possibility of bringing the Austrian brethren home (Centre Party had at least some "großdeutsch" allures at the beginning), to balance the loss of the Western integration possibility, to bring the catholics home and balance protestant dominance. Austria is hoping for more security and economic benefits from the unified nation. ÖVP seems to be more in favor, the "third camp" obviously, SPÖ is quite reluctant. In a referndum the motion to achieve unity passes 52 percent.

Longer negotiation between the allied powers and the three governments start and lead to the 1954 23rd October Paris treaty which is highly disputed in Germany as unified Germany has to accept the Oder-Neiße-border and some reservations of the allied forces in what is the official peace treaty of WW II.

The transition phase is iffy, especially in the GDR. SED feels betrayed by the USSR. They claim it to be a tactical restart. The negotiations lead to the solution, that many changes of economy, agriculture (land reform!) and society in the former GDR may stay the way they are.

Adenauer is percieved as the chancellor of unity and fairly popular by many, the German right wing sees him as the "chancellor of betrayal" for giving away the eastern territories. Some even call him "the new Esau" (although the Austrian wouldn't call Austria a mess of pottage of course).

SED collapses to its communist core and some left wing socialists who think that a renewal is possible, merges with KPÖ and KPD (which had to be relegalized). The communists still do not know what to do about their name, identity and what their prospects are as they lost support of the USSR. Vote shares in the East will be higher, because of those who benefited from land reform and so on. They start as highly polarizing figures and quite unreformed, claiming to "prevent the achievements of socialism from counter-revolution, but also try to use "socialist unity" rhethorics. Wilhelm Pieck is their leading candidate.
They start with about 15 percent in the old East, 5 percent in Austria and 3 percent in the old West

The "Gesamtdeutscher Block/Block der Heimatvertriebenen und Entrechteten" is merging with the Austrian right wing and the right wing of the FDP and also protestand nationalists from the CDU and some the remnatnts of the NDPD (some claim them to be a fifth column, though) under the name of "Gesamtdeutscher Block/ Deutschnationale Partei". They clearly want their east back.

CDU merges with CSU (they are quite in danger at this time) and ÖVP under this name, though their state chapters may change their name

FDP is reduced to their liberal protestant bourgeois cores. They also start quite high in East Germany, but very low in Austria for obvious reasons

SPD is still pre-Godesberg and is nominating Ollenhauer (as ususal). They are starting well in the industrial regions of the east, their traditional strongholds, but fail to overcome Adenauer's popularity.

German Party is still competing on its own and tries to compete in protestant rural areas of East Germany.

The party system of East Germany also sees some own creations: The "Movement of 17th July" which is a staunchly anti-communist protest party, that claims the parties of the centre-right would be "soft towards marxism" and the "Deutsche Reformpartei" who is vastly an offshot of people from the block parties who were more integrated into the GDR system.

In Austria there is an "Austrian Party" that is calling for greater autonomy and is campaignin together with Bavarian Party, Centre party, the Christian People's Party of Saar and other regionalists in a "Federalist Union"

The national assembly of Frankfurt that is elected on the symbolic date of 18th of may

(I think, I should do an election game out of this, but well...)
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.034 seconds with 11 queries.