Austria as a German state (Federal & State election results)

[Tender Branson]

Imagine Austria was incorporated into Germany after WW2 and would now be the 17th federal state.

The current prime minister of the state of Austria is Erwin Pröll from the conservative CDU, head of the state since the 1994 Austrian state election (re-elected in the 1999, 2004 and 2009 state elections).

During the last year, the AfD has emerged on the policial stage in Germany, drawing votes from the CDU and the FDP.

What did the federal election result in the state of Austria look like in September 2013 ?

And how would it vote in the 2014 state election (Pröll is running for another term) ?

(some background: the economic situation is roughly that of Bayern or Baden-Württemberg, which means low unemployment, and the government of Pröll is more or less autocratic similar to the former CSU-governor Stoiber in Bavaria)

Predict the 2013 federal election results and the 2014 state election results for:

CDU
SPD
Greens
Left
AfD
FDP
Pirates
Others

[Tender Branson]

I would imagine there could potentially be room for an 'Austrian' party/ies in such a scenario.

For hypothetical purposes: There could have been some during the 1950s, but for 2013/14 predictions please only use the current German parties.

[Tender Branson]

There is an International what if? board for this kind a thing.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=73.0

Yeah, but please let it here for a few days and move it later.

(more people watch this board than the other one)

[Tender Branson]

Questionable: Was WestVienna a land of its own before 1990? Was the deprived East absorbed by wealthy WesternAustria (capitol Salzburg)?

If we assume, that a neutral hence undivided A. joined Germany in 1990 (totally surreal), then I would think: FDP is surely very weak (as in Bavaria), Haider was - after countless quarrels with his party-colleague Schönhuber - a non-partisan LandRat of LandKreis Klagenfurt  (RegierungsBezirk Carinthia), SPD dominates, because CSU-Ö cannot absorb the FPÖ/BZÖ/TS-voters, who partly try it now and again with AfD (westernA.) & NPD (eastern&southernA.).

Nope, for hypothetical purposes we assume that Austria joined West-Germany right after WW2 and became a state, implementing all of its democratic framework (constitution, media, school system, police system, military etc.)

In this case it would be unlikely that a Jörg Haider would ever had the chance to become a major political figure in Austria, because the German media would have "written him down" (the German media is much more powerful in discrediting right-wing figures than the Austrian media). Which would also mean that the AfD would probably not be strongest in Austria, but rather like it is now in Saxony, while the state of Austria would have more like a Bavarian AfD showing.

I assume the 2013 federal election result would have been something like:

43% CDU
25% SPD
10% Greens
  6% AfD
  5% FDP
  3% Left
  2% Pirates
  2% FW
  1% NPD
  3% Others

Taking into account the election results of the 2 southern conservative states of Bayern and BW.

[Tender Branson]

I would assume the FDP would be far more influential in the richer areas in the West, Voralrberg, Tirol, Salzburg; and around Vienna and possibly Graz, while they would absolutely fail, to say so, in Oberösterreich, Kärnten, Burgenland, Ober-Steiermark...

Plus, I seriously doubt that the CDU wouldn't run a CSU-like affiliate in Austria, maybe even the CSU...

I also doubt that the AfD would be so much better in Austria than in the rest of Germany...

Yepp.

Maybe the CVP (Christliche Volkspartei, Christian People's Party) ?

Plus, after decades of "Germanisation" in the schools and media, as well as sharing the left-wing RAF terror in the 70s, immigration from other parts of Germany (like in Bavaria), Austria would probably be much less nationalist-minded than it would be as an independent country. Which means less than average AfD and NPD support. Even if Haider managed to become NPD-leader in the 80s, there would have been massive student protests against it, media onslaught and the NPD/Haider would have likely went down in flames.