Democratic & Republican Ceilings

[NHLiberal]

There's been a lot of talk about each party's ceiling in the Senate elections, but what about for the gubernatorial ones? Here is my take

Democratic:

Republican:

Obviously the term "ceiling" is subjective and there's a lot of room for debate. My interpretation of a ceiling is a party winning every single race that is "competitive." For example, I consider Oregon, Minnesota, Maryland, New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas, and Nevada all to be "non-competitive"; in other words, due to candidate strength and other fundamentals of the races, Republicans would be unable to pick up Oregon, Minnesota, Maryland, New Hampshire, or Rhode Island, even if there was to be a massive Republican wave, and the same goes for Democrats with Ohio, Texas, and Nevada. What do you all think?

Interesting observation: In each of these ceiling maps, the losing party wins exactly 8 races.

[Vega]

Democratic Ceiling.

I agree with your Republican ceiling minus them winning Hawaii.

[IceSpear]

There's been a lot of talk about each party's ceiling in the Senate elections, but what about for the gubernatorial ones? Here is my take

Democratic:

Republican:

Obviously the term "ceiling" is subjective and there's a lot of room for debate. My interpretation of a ceiling is a party winning every single race that is "competitive." For example, I consider Oregon, Minnesota, Maryland, New Hampshire, Ohio, Texas, and Nevada all to be "non-competitive"; in other words, due to candidate strength and other fundamentals of the races, Republicans would be unable to pick up Oregon, Minnesota, Maryland, New Hampshire, or Rhode Island, even if there was to be a massive Republican wave, and the same goes for Democrats with Ohio, Texas, and Nevada. What do you all think?

Interesting observation: In each of these ceiling maps, the losing party wins exactly 8 races.

I'd take IA/OK/SC off your D map and HI/RI off your R map (but adding MN).

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats:

Net D+8, I+1. 28 D Govs, 21 R Govs, 1 I Gov. Really quite stumbled on whether I should include NM.

Republicans:

Net R+2. 32 R Govs, 18 D Govs. I was thinking of including MA, but that might be pushing it.

[Maxwell]

If it truly becomes a wave, I think Oregon is possible in a Republican ceiling situation.

[New_Conservative]

Interesting discussion

[Mister Mets]

The Republican ceiling (under reasonable circumstances) would be keeping all over their seats except Pennsylvania, with additional pick-ups in Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and Massachusetts. Add one more race that currently seems safe/ likely Dem either due to gaffe or scandal.