Could Rick Weiland (D-SD) become the Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) of 2014?

[solarstorm]

We all know, in the Dakotas surprises cannot be ruled out.
Before the 2012 senatorial election in North Dakota, a Democrat, Kent Conrad, had retired.
A Republican, Rick Berg, was leading in the polls for a long time, but eventually, a Democrat, Heidi Heitkamp, was able to hold the Senate seat, albeit very narrowly: by 0.92%.



The initial situation in South Dakota is similar this year: A Democrat, Tim Johnson, is retiring and a Republican is up in the lead. Rick Weiland's advantage: Two Republicans are in the race.
Could the events in North Dakota recur in its Southern brethren?

[Vega]

Weiland is no Heitkamp, and that's the problem.

Had they ran someone like Jason Frerichs or Brendan Johnson, than maybe.

[Ogre Mage]

No.  Weiland even accidentally referred to Mike Rounds as "senator."  Then he corrected himself -- "soon-to-be senator."    To be honest, this is a race where we had a recruitment failure.

[Maxwell]

Heitkamp eventually led in some polls. Weiland has yet to do so.

[solarstorm]

Heitkamp eventually led in some polls. Weiland has yet to do so.

Why is Weiland even unable to gain a foothold even though he's running against two Republicans?

[Vega]

Heitkamp eventually led in some polls. Weiland has yet to do so.

Why is Weiland even unable to gain a foothold even though he's running against two Republicans?

A Republican and a Independent - A Independent who takes votes away from Weiland, too.

[Maxwell]

Heitkamp eventually led in some polls. Weiland has yet to do so.

Why is Weiland even unable to gain a foothold even though he's running against two Republicans?

Because one of the Republicans is, to some extent, running in Weiland's territory.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The polls were actually close in 2012, and assumptions of a Berg win were mostly based on "State fundamentals".

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The polls were actually close in 2012, and assumptions of a Berg win were mostly based on "State fundamentals".

I bet 538 would have rated LA-02 in 2008 ultra mega safe D race based upon district fundamentals, it being a D+25.

[Miles]

The polls were actually close in 2012, and assumptions of a Berg win were mostly based on "State fundamentals".

I bet 538 would have rated LA-02 in 2008 ultra mega safe D race based upon district fundamentals, it being a D+25.

Oddly enough, they far overestimated Cao as an incumbent in 2010. They had him losing by 13; he went on to lose by 31.

[ElectionsGuy]

No

[Bacon King]

It should be noted that a big reason ND was such a surprise in 2012 was because it's one of two states, along with MT, with bans on robopolling, so only pollsters using live operators (not very many of them these days) were able to poll the race. Since most major pollsters weren't touching it the handful of polls that did come out were treated with a grain of salt.

[Badger]

Not a chance without Pressler dropping out and actively backing Weiland, and even then pribably not.

If Weiland drops out and actively backs Pressler, then Pressler MIGHT get that opportunoty.

[VPH]

Larry Pressler surely cannot help his chances in SD.

[Maxwell]

Not a chance without Pressler dropping out and actively backing Weiland, and even then pribably not.

If Weiland drops out and actively backs Pressler, then Pressler MIGHT get that opportunoty.

Nah, Weiland is running the better campaign at the moment. If any one could win a one on one against Rounds of the two, its Weiland.

[TDAS04]

No, unfortunately. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Definately maybe, and these third party candidates in AK and KS and SD will have a profound effect on election day.