Who do you think is more well-liked in New York?

[NHLiberal]

Inspired by this:

Even absolute nobodies get 25% of the vote in New York state (see 2010 Democratic Senatorial Primary). Teachout will easily clear 30%.

Gillibrand still is not as well-known or liked as Cuomo.  Hillary Clinton won almost 82% of the vote in the 2000 Democratic primary and 84% in the 2006 primary.  So, no, absolute nobodies don't usually get 25% in New York Democratic Primaries.  Cuomo is as well-known to New Yorkers as Hillary, not Gillibrand.

Gillibrand, of course

[Eraserhead]

Gillibrand, easily. Especially these days.

Looks like cinyc's personal politics are impacting his predictions. I'd be pretty surprised if Teachout only received 25% of the vote (or less).

[Ban my account ffs!]

Yuck to both. More to Cuomo though. Gilly has some good qualities.

[cinyc]

Gillibrand, easily. Especially these days.

Looks like cinyc's personal politics are impacting his predictions. I'd be pretty surprised if Teachout only received 25% of the vote (or less).

If my personal politics were impacting my predictions, wouldn't I be calling for a huge Teachout win?  I want the Republican to win, after all, and the only way that's going to happen is if there is a three-way race or the Republican goes head-to-head against an untested candidate, like Teachout.

My predictions are based on Cuomo's high favorables among Democrats and self-described liberals in the few polls we do have, broad establishment support, and Teachout's status as an unknown candidate.  The point of my post was that this makes tomorrow's Democratic primary more like Hillary's in 2000 and 2006, when a well-liked, well-known Democrat ran against an unknown, than Gillibrand's in 2010 or 2012, when Gillibrand was a relative unknown, and, by definition, less liked than Cuomo or Clinton because there were more undecideds.   16% is a more likely floor than 25%.  And Gillibrand still is a relative unknown compared to Cuomo, particularly among minorities - though her numbers have been getting better.

[bedstuy]

Cuomo is more well-liked because nobody pays attention to politics here.  New York politics is depressing, corrupt and boring given the total lack of competitive races.  On top of that, people often focus more on NYC politics over statewide politics for whatever reason.  At the end of the day, Cuomo just has a lot of good will based on his father's coattails.  Gillibrand is fairly anonymous. 

[Torie]

FWIW, and against my better judgment jumping into the Dem primary fray, I find Teachout's comments to be rather superficial, generalized, and vapid - just a litany of "left wing/politically correct" cliches. I just don't think that she is very well informed. I find the arguably ethically challenged Cuomo's abrasive style, the lesser of two evils in this instance. That is my little bias.

[© tweed]

I find Teachout's comments to be rather superficial, generalized, and vapid - just a litany of "left wing/politically correct" cliches

that's not incorrect, but doesn't bother me like it would if she just dropped out of the sky, like a Ned Lamont.  she's been visible in activist circles for many years now.

[TDAS04]

Hopefully Gillibrand, but I don't know. 

[Eraserhead]

Heh. I guess we have our answer. At least when it comes to Democrasts.