Final Predictions for the NY Gov./Lt. Gov. Primaries (9/9/14)
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Author Topic: Final Predictions for the NY Gov./Lt. Gov. Primaries (9/9/14)  (Read 1871 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: September 08, 2014, 03:35:50 AM »
« edited: September 08, 2014, 05:14:17 AM by Corporate Worship »
I'm unfortunately gonna have to play it kinda safe.

NY Governor Primary (D)

Cuomo 60%
Teachout 38%
Credico 2%

Teachout carries Tompkins (by a lot) and Ulster (narrowly). Cuomo carries the rest of the counties but they'll be some others that are kind of close (Dutchess, maybe Kings, etc.).

NY Lt. Governor Primary (D)

Hochul 52%
Wu 48%

I think Wu has a real shot at pulling an upset but I believe Cuomo's machine will be too much for him at the end of the day. I think Wu will run much stronger than Teachout in NYC and Hochul will probably be even stronger than Cuomo in some parts of western New York.
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Vega
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2014, 04:18:10 AM »
Cuomo wins with 65, Teachout get's 33, Credico get's 2%.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2014, 04:30:31 AM »
Cuomo 58%
Teachout 39%
Credico 3%



Hochul 53%
Wu 47%
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2014, 06:17:28 AM »
Cuomo 66%
Teachout 32%
Credico 2%

Hochul 57%
Wu 42%
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windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2014, 08:47:44 AM »
There is no way she can pull an upset? Sad
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2014, 08:49:17 AM »
Quote from: windjammer on September 08, 2014, 08:47:44 AM
There is no way she can pull an upset? Sad

it's a 100-1 shot, 75-1 being generous.  whether that means "no way" is a matter of definition.

I'll say Cuomo wins by just under 2:1 and Hochul by just under 3:2
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2014, 10:15:27 AM »
« Edited: September 08, 2014, 10:17:47 AM by Eraserhead »
Quote from: windjammer on September 08, 2014, 08:47:44 AM
There is no way she can pull an upset? Sad

Well, there hasn't even been any public polling so you never know... but you probably shouldn't get your hopes up.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2014, 12:21:49 PM »
Cuomo 72%
Teachout 24%
Credico 4%

Hochul 64%
Wu 36%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2014, 12:29:05 PM »
I'll be generous to the challengers -

Governor
62% Cuomo
34% Teachout
4% Credico

Lt. Governor
56% Hochul
44% Wu
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2014, 12:58:21 PM »
Cuomo 62
Teachout 36
Credico 2

Hochul 56
Wu 44
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2014, 01:49:52 PM »
Cuomo: 64%
Teachout: 34%
Credico: 2%

Hochul: 54%
Wu: 46%
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xavier110
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2014, 01:44:24 AM »
I'm obviously hoping for a Teachout win!

Gubernatorial:

Cuomo - 58%
Teachout - 39%
Credico - 3%

Teachout wins Tompkins and at least two other counties

Lieutenant Governor:

Hochul - 52%
Wu - 48%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2014, 08:22:46 AM »
What are the two other counties you think she's most likely to carry, xavier?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2014, 09:15:04 AM »
Zephyr Rain 57
Cuomo 41
Credico 2

Wu 61
Hochul 38
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Smash255
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2014, 09:46:55 AM »
Cuomo 68
Teachout 30
Creidco 2

Cuomo wins every county, Teachout gets close in Tompkins


Hochul 59
Wu 41
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Miles
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« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2014, 12:08:39 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on September 08, 2014, 12:58:21 PM
Cuomo 62
Teachout 36
Credico 2

Hochul 56
Wu 44
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2014, 12:13:51 PM »
Quote from: sjkqw on September 09, 2014, 09:15:04 AM
Zephyr Rain 57
Cuomo 41
Credico 2

Wu 61
Hochul 38
16 point win for Cuomo? what exactly is that based on?

--------

Cuomo 59
Teachout 38
Credico 3

Hochul 57
Wu 43
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2014, 12:59:35 PM »
Quote from: sjkqw on September 09, 2014, 09:15:04 AM
Zephyr Rain 57
Cuomo 41
Credico 2

Wu 61
Hochul 38

I want what he's smoking!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2014, 02:27:59 PM »
Quote from: Wulfric on September 09, 2014, 12:13:51 PM
Quote from: sjkqw on September 09, 2014, 09:15:04 AM
Zephyr Rain 57
Cuomo 41
Credico 2

Wu 61
Hochul 38
16 point win for Cuomo? what exactly is that based on?


Absolutely nothing substantial. It's not like I'm betting money on this. Just a dream outcome.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2014, 04:30:01 PM »
Cuomo - 62%
Zephyr - 35%
Credico - 3%

Hochul - 57%
Wu - 43%
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2014, 04:52:47 PM »
Teachout - 44%
Cuomo -  54%
other - 2%

Wu - 51
Hochul - 49
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Brewer
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2014, 05:06:25 PM »
Cuomo - 61%
Teachout - 37%
Credico - 2%

Hochul - 53%
Wu - 47%
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2014, 05:14:35 PM »
Cuomo 63%
Teachout 35%
Credico 2%

Hochul 48%
Wu 52%
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SWE
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2014, 05:50:11 PM »
Credico: 100%
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2014, 05:51:07 PM »
Cuomo is under 65.

Wu has 50/50 shot of winning, should be within 4 points either way.
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