Who will win the Senate control in November?

[Free Bird]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

[SWE]

I want to reitterate before "someone" calls me a hack. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if the GOP gains the Senate, but at the moment the most likely dice roll seems to be 50-50.

Hack

[Mr. Smith]

I'll guess R+5, with either Kay Hagan or Mark Begich being the one seat that stops a regressive takeover...maybe Georgia goes to the Dems

Although given that the country didn't give Obama 55% of the vote, in Georgia they voted for a chickenhawk over a near-limbless POV in 2002,...I wouldn't be surprised if the regressive obstructionists took over.

[Dixie Reborn]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

[Mr. Smith]

We were stuck in that "stage" in 2012 as well when Romney "won" the first debate, and with the Senate.

...Look how that turned out.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

I don't think that any Republican-supporters on this website, should be accusing anyone of "denial."
The last presidential race showed gross denial by many on this site ... and I mean majorly-gross.

We are two months away until the general election. Most Democrat-supporters on this site, are being realistic in their predictions on each state-by-state Senate race. Few are "overly optimistic." But their is still time for movement of votes from one candidate to another (via poll info), and for members of this site to be more practical in their forecasting.

But if you recall, during the 2012 Presidential Election, many more Republican-supporters on this site were in "denial." Even one day before the election, Fox News had many on this site hypnotized that republicans were going to paint the majority of the map in their color. I was horrified to read many Atlas comments, thinking to myself "are these people sane ... from Earth?!!"
When all evidence was pointing to a near-certain predictable winner, Tea-baggers and ultra-conservative republicans insanely went down the path of too "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs."

[Vega]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

Saying Republicans will gain 5 seats (which is what I'm saying) is hardly denial.

[njwes]

It might be faster for you just to tally the color of the avatars in the forum

That said, I honestly have no idea. Anything from R+3 to R+8 seem realistic to me at this point.

[Free Bird]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

I don't think that any Republican-supporters on this website, should be accusing anyone of "denial."
The last presidential race showed gross denial by many on this site ... and I mean majorly-gross.

We are two months away until the general election. Most Democrat-supporters on this site, are being realistic in their predictions on each state-by-state Senate race. Few are "overly optimistic." But their is still time for movement of votes from one candidate to another (via poll info), and for members of this site to be more practical in their forecasting.

But if you recall, during the 2012 Presidential Election, many more Republican-supporters on this site were in "denial." Even one day before the election, Fox News had many on this site hypnotized that republicans were going to paint the majority of the map in their color. I was horrified to read many Atlas comments, thinking to myself "are these people sane ... from Earth?!!"
When all evidence was pointing to a near-certain predictable winner, Tea-baggers and ultra-conservative republicans insanely went down the path of too "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs."

Except we learned from our mistakes in that regard. You're making the same claims and denials we did then.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

I don't think that any Republican-supporters on this website, should be accusing anyone of "denial."
The last presidential race showed gross denial by many on this site ... and I mean majorly-gross.

We are two months away until the general election. Most Democrat-supporters on this site, are being realistic in their predictions on each state-by-state Senate race. Few are "overly optimistic." But their is still time for movement of votes from one candidate to another (via poll info), and for members of this site to be more practical in their forecasting.

But if you recall, during the 2012 Presidential Election, many more Republican-supporters on this site were in "denial." Even one day before the election, Fox News had many on this site hypnotized that republicans were going to paint the majority of the map in their color. I was horrified to read many Atlas comments, thinking to myself "are these people sane ... from Earth?!!"
When all evidence was pointing to a near-certain predictable winner, Tea-baggers and ultra-conservative republicans insanely went down the path of too "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs."

Except we learned from our mistakes in that regard. You're making the same claims and denials we did then.

What do you mean by saying "You are making the same claims and denials ..."
I have made no such denials. I have said in another thread, that there is approximately a 55% probability that Republicans will hold a majority in the Senate.

Just because I am a reasonable individual who points-out a previous insane prediction made by a group of cuckoos, doesn't mean I am automatically "one who believes on a +1 Democratic net gain in the Senate" (This would be equivalent to the crazies who were calling a landslide Romney win).

And besides, if you re-read my post, my emphasis is on the wackies who refused to believe (denial) on the day before the election. We are still about two months away, so (at this time)we need to allow for some room on "exaggerated opinions" by some Atlas members.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

Saying Republicans will gain 5 seats (which is what I'm saying) is hardly denial.

Here is Vega, making a similar argument.
Notice that Vega is not in denial ... a Republican +5 net gain sounds reasonable.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

This.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I have been gung-ho in predicting the Republicans will overtake the Senate, but now with Kansas as a pure toss-up based on the latest polls, I'm not so sure.  I'm almost certain that Orman will caucus with the Democrats should he beat Pat Roberts, so even though he's an Indy, for all intents and purposes, I will call him a Democrat.  I was saying a 51-49 Republican advantage, so now I'm putting the control of the Senate in a pure toss-up.  I'm agreeing more and more with a 50-50 Senate with VP Biden breaking the tie.  I'm still going to vote Republican in this poll, but with some hesitancy.

[Yank2133]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

I don't think that any Republican-supporters on this website, should be accusing anyone of "denial."
The last presidential race showed gross denial by many on this site ... and I mean majorly-gross.

We are two months away until the general election. Most Democrat-supporters on this site, are being realistic in their predictions on each state-by-state Senate race. Few are "overly optimistic." But their is still time for movement of votes from one candidate to another (via poll info), and for members of this site to be more practical in their forecasting.

But if you recall, during the 2012 Presidential Election, many more Republican-supporters on this site were in "denial." Even one day before the election, Fox News had many on this site hypnotized that republicans were going to paint the majority of the map in their color. I was horrified to read many Atlas comments, thinking to myself "are these people sane ... from Earth?!!"
When all evidence was pointing to a near-certain predictable winner, Tea-baggers and ultra-conservative republicans insanely went down the path of too "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs."

Except we learned from our mistakes in that regard. You're making the same claims and denials we did then.

Lmao, you guys did the same nonsense in 2008 and they will do it in 2016 as well.

[ShadowRocket]

Voted the Republicans with a 51-seat majority. Though a 50-50 split is still a possibility.

[Beezer]

MT, SD, WV, AR, and LA will turn red. Sanders then surprises everyone and caucuses with the Republicans.

[ElectionsGuy]

MT, SD, WV, AR, and LA will turn red. Sanders then surprises everyone and caucuses with the Republicans.

Do you mean King? Sanders will not do that.

[ProudModerate2]

MT, SD, WV, AR, and LA will turn red. Sanders then surprises everyone and caucuses with the Republicans.

Do you mean King? Sanders will not do that.

ElectionsGuy,
I think he is joking.
LOL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK and NC and La royal blue
Mnt, SD and Wva ruby red
KS indy favored

51-49 senate while Orman and King stay with respective parties

[Flake]

I've always said that the Democrats will keep the Senate and I'm not changing that prediction now.

-_-

You act like a Republican Senate is guaranteed at this point when it's far more likely for Democrats to keep it. Even in toss-up states, Democrats have been leading Republican challengers for the most part.

[eric82oslo]

FiveThirtyEight has reduced the possibility for a Republican takeover vastly today. Down from around 63% yesterday to only 58% today.

[Lief 🗽]

FiveThirtyEight has reduced the possibility for a Republican takeover vastly today. Down from around 63% yesterday to only 58% today.

The Democratic wave is building!

[Joe Biden 2020]

www.electoral-vote.com shows Republicans with a 51-48-1 advantage with all of the southern states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina) plus Alaska going red and all the western/northern states (Colorado, Iowa, Michigan) going blue.  I'm guessing Orman will side with the Democrats, so might as well say 51-49.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

www.electoral-vote.com shows Republicans with a 51-48-1 advantage with all of the southern states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina) plus Alaska going red and all the western/northern states (Colorado, Iowa, Michigan) going blue.  I'm guessing Orman will side with the Democrats, so might as well say 51-49.

Disagree with NC, should be barely Dem, and Alaska should be tied.

[JohnCA246]

As to Democratic denials vs GOP denial in 2012. I don't remember Romney ever winning the Electoral College that entire election. According to our aggregates on this site, Begich is winning, Hagan, and Braley are winning. Begich has slipped in recent polls and is probably losing, but so is Pat Roberts. They both probably have the same chance of losing. Right now the GOP is looking at about 5 pickups. I wouldn't be shocked if they win 8, but right now polls say 50 50 Senate. KS is huge. Wouldn't be surprised though, if Orman's support wanes as voters realize it may keep the Dems in control. It's really close.