Who will win the Senate control in November?

[Senator Cris]

I'm curious to view a lot of comments as "it will be a GOP wave in November" by some users and political commentators as Rothenberg.
The fact is that this was, is and will be a close race for control of the US Senate. It won't be, IMHO, a GOP wave (gain of all toss-up seats).
Republicans needs to gain 6 seats for the majority. Republicans are favorites to win in Montana (99%), West Virginia (99%) and South Dakota (95%) and to maintain Kentucky and Georgia.
Also they are favorites in Arkansas and Louisiana (but I think that Landrieu has still some chance to remain in Washington). So, a gain of 5 seats.
About the other seats: Democrats are favorites in New Hampshire, Michigan. About the swing states, Democrats are still favored in North Carolina and Colorado. The remaining seats, Alaska and Iowa, are pure toss-ups. Gun to my head (but not so much), Dems are favorites in Iowa. Alaska is the pure of the pure toss-ups, but Begich is running a great campaign. So, a gain of 5-6 seats.
This without considering the race in Kansas...

[eric82oslo]

The different houses' take on the Senate race probabilities right now:

538: R+58.2% (updated yesterday)
NYTimes The Upshot: R +57% (updated yesterday)
WP Election Lab: R +54% (updated 3 days ago)
Daily Kos: R +53% (updated August 25?)
HuffPost Pollster: D +56% (last updated today)
Princeton Election Consortium: D +81% (updated today)

Also, Election Projection.com: 50-50 (http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/2014-senate-elections.php), meaning a slight Democratic majority

So according to these five election forecasters, it's just as likely for a Democratic majority as a Republican one. And not even one of them thinks the GOP chances of retaking the Senate is currently greater than 60%.

[ProudModerate2]

I tried to find the Huffpost Election Forecaster, but I couldn't... Yet apparently they gave Democrats a 60% chance of retaining the Senate on September 5.

HuffPost: R+56% (Last updated Friday, Sept. 12, 2014, at 4:01 a.m)

Link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

[eric82oslo]

I tried to find the Huffpost Election Forecaster, but I couldn't... Yet apparently they gave Democrats a 60% chance of retaining the Senate on September 5.

HuffPost: R+56% (Last updated Friday, Sept. 12, 2014, at 4:01 a.m)

Link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

Thanks.

It's actually D +56%.

[ProudModerate2]

I tried to find the Huffpost Election Forecaster, but I couldn't... Yet apparently they gave Democrats a 60% chance of retaining the Senate on September 5.

HuffPost: R+56% (Last updated Friday, Sept. 12, 2014, at 4:01 a.m)

Link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

Thanks.

It's actually D +56%.

Oops. LOL. This going back and forth thing, with colors ("Red vs Blue") is driving me nuts.
But you are correct (and to my surprise) ... its a 56% chance that Dems will keep control of the Senate. Wow.

[Senator Cris]

I tried to find the Huffpost Election Forecaster, but I couldn't... Yet apparently they gave Democrats a 60% chance of retaining the Senate on September 5.

HuffPost: R+56% (Last updated Friday, Sept. 12, 2014, at 4:01 a.m)

Link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

Thanks.

It's actually D +56%.

Oops. LOL. This going back and forth thing, with colors ("Red vs Blue") is driving me nuts.
But you are correct (and to my surprise) ... its a 56% chance that Dems will keep control of the Senate. Wow.

They have Hutto with 17% of chance of win in South Carolina, Curtis with 10% chance in Montana, Childers with 6% chance in Mississippi

[ProudModerate2]

Princeton Election Consortium: D +81% (updated today)

This one seems, way out in "left" field.
A slight Dem probability, OK maybe .... but 81%, I doubt that high.

[JohnCA246]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They must for some reason really think Begich is going to win. Those last polls looked bad.

[ProudModerate2]

NYTimes The Upshot: R +57% (updated yesterday)

The New York Times "The Upshot," was just updated this morning (Sept 12). About 4 or 5 days ago, The Upshot predicted a 61% chance of a Republican takeover of the Senate.

So it went from 61%, to 57%, and now it stands at just 53%.
Their highest "likelihood" is a 50-50 split Senate.

And their computation only includes a 24% chance of Pat Roberts (R-KS) losing his seat.
I guarantee that the likelihood is higher than just 24% (at this time, it's probably slightly higher than 50%).

[solarstorm]

MT, SD, WV, AR, and LA will turn red. Sanders then surprises everyone and caucuses with the Republicans.

Do you mean King? Sanders will not do that.

ElectionsGuy,
I think he is joking.
LOL.

Exactly. After reading the first sentence I knew he was joking. ROFL.