Who will win the Senate control in November?

[ProudModerate2]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

I don't think that any Republican-supporters on this website, should be accusing anyone of "denial."
The last presidential race showed gross denial by many on this site ... and I mean majorly-gross.

We are two months away until the general election. Most Democrat-supporters on this site, are being realistic in their predictions on each state-by-state Senate race. Few are "overly optimistic." But their is still time for movement of votes from one candidate to another (via poll info), and for members of this site to be more practical in their forecasting.

But if you recall, during the 2012 Presidential Election, many more Republican-supporters on this site were in "denial." Even one day before the election, Fox News had many on this site hypnotized that republicans were going to paint the majority of the map in their color. I was horrified to read many Atlas comments, thinking to myself "are these people sane ... from Earth?!!"
When all evidence was pointing to a near-certain predictable winner, Tea-baggers and ultra-conservative republicans insanely went down the path of too "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs."

[ProudModerate2]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

I don't think that any Republican-supporters on this website, should be accusing anyone of "denial."
The last presidential race showed gross denial by many on this site ... and I mean majorly-gross.

We are two months away until the general election. Most Democrat-supporters on this site, are being realistic in their predictions on each state-by-state Senate race. Few are "overly optimistic." But their is still time for movement of votes from one candidate to another (via poll info), and for members of this site to be more practical in their forecasting.

But if you recall, during the 2012 Presidential Election, many more Republican-supporters on this site were in "denial." Even one day before the election, Fox News had many on this site hypnotized that republicans were going to paint the majority of the map in their color. I was horrified to read many Atlas comments, thinking to myself "are these people sane ... from Earth?!!"
When all evidence was pointing to a near-certain predictable winner, Tea-baggers and ultra-conservative republicans insanely went down the path of too "cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs."

Except we learned from our mistakes in that regard. You're making the same claims and denials we did then.

What do you mean by saying "You are making the same claims and denials ..."
I have made no such denials. I have said in another thread, that there is approximately a 55% probability that Republicans will hold a majority in the Senate.

Just because I am a reasonable individual who points-out a previous insane prediction made by a group of cuckoos, doesn't mean I am automatically "one who believes on a +1 Democratic net gain in the Senate" (This would be equivalent to the crazies who were calling a landslide Romney win).

And besides, if you re-read my post, my emphasis is on the wackies who refused to believe (denial) on the day before the election. We are still about two months away, so (at this time)we need to allow for some room on "exaggerated opinions" by some Atlas members.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm really starting to think the Democrats are going through the Five Stages of Death and Grief with this whole thing.

They've been stuck at the Denial stage for pretty much the entire election season.

Saying Republicans will gain 5 seats (which is what I'm saying) is hardly denial.

Here is Vega, making a similar argument.
Notice that Vega is not in denial ... a Republican +5 net gain sounds reasonable.

[ProudModerate2]

MT, SD, WV, AR, and LA will turn red. Sanders then surprises everyone and caucuses with the Republicans.

Do you mean King? Sanders will not do that.

ElectionsGuy,
I think he is joking.
LOL.

[ProudModerate2]

I tried to find the Huffpost Election Forecaster, but I couldn't... Yet apparently they gave Democrats a 60% chance of retaining the Senate on September 5.

HuffPost: R+56% (Last updated Friday, Sept. 12, 2014, at 4:01 a.m)

Link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

[ProudModerate2]

I tried to find the Huffpost Election Forecaster, but I couldn't... Yet apparently they gave Democrats a 60% chance of retaining the Senate on September 5.

HuffPost: R+56% (Last updated Friday, Sept. 12, 2014, at 4:01 a.m)

Link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2014/senate-outlook

Thanks.

It's actually D +56%.

Oops. LOL. This going back and forth thing, with colors ("Red vs Blue") is driving me nuts.
But you are correct (and to my surprise) ... its a 56% chance that Dems will keep control of the Senate. Wow.

[ProudModerate2]

Princeton Election Consortium: D +81% (updated today)

This one seems, way out in "left" field.
A slight Dem probability, OK maybe .... but 81%, I doubt that high.

[ProudModerate2]

NYTimes The Upshot: R +57% (updated yesterday)

The New York Times "The Upshot," was just updated this morning (Sept 12). About 4 or 5 days ago, The Upshot predicted a 61% chance of a Republican takeover of the Senate.

So it went from 61%, to 57%, and now it stands at just 53%.
Their highest "likelihood" is a 50-50 split Senate.

And their computation only includes a 24% chance of Pat Roberts (R-KS) losing his seat.
I guarantee that the likelihood is higher than just 24% (at this time, it's probably slightly higher than 50%).