Rothenberg: 2014 = 2010, GOP gaining (at least) 7 seats

[Torie]

Just to add to the mix, Iowa appears to be trending Pub now - as reflected in the changing party registration figures in part. At the moment, Iowa appears to be politically in equipoise, rather than lean Dem. That is what can happen in part, when a place is very light on the ground when it comes to persons of color and hip/green whites. Colorado on the other hand is trending the other way, due to the fact that hip young whites and green whites (the two groups overlap of course) are migrating there, along with more Hispanic voters. That state is only in play this year because of the Pub tilt of this election cycle, and the Pubs having an excellent candidate. Just my two cents anyway.

[Torie]

Just to add to the mix, Iowa appears to be trending Pub now - as reflected in the changing party registration figures in part. At the moment, Iowa appears to be politically in equipoise, rather than lean Dem. That is what can happen in part, when a place is very light on the ground when it comes to persons of color and hip/green whites. Colorado on the other hand is trending the other way, due to the fact that hip young whites and green whites (the two groups overlap of course) are migrating there, along with more Hispanic voters. That state is only in play this year because of the Pub tilt of this election cycle, and the Pubs having an excellent candidate. Just my two cents anyway.

You are ignoring the poll that just came out today that showed Braley up four, from a pollster that showed Ernst up six previously.

Didn't know about it. Maybe attack ads are up are something. Polls do move around some based on whatever media offensives are in play at any given point sometimes.