French Senate election - September 28, 2014

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As if things couldn't get any worse for Flanby and his circus, the presidential majority (the PS) is going to lose its thin majority in the Senate, which it won in 2011 (after the various shades of the right, or, more accurately the non-left, had controlled the Senate for all the Fifth Republic). It's not that big of a deal, because the Senate doesn't really have the power to kill legislation but it can certainly be a bigger hassle if the opposition controls it.

Anyhow, half - 178 seats - of the 348 seats in the Senate are up this year. Since a 2003 reform, senators are elected by halves for 6 years instead of by thirds for 9 years. This is the second election, after 2011, in which fully half of the Senate are up. The seats up this year were last renewed in 2008 or in 2004, and this series is known as Series 2. The Series 2 includes all departments with the ID number between 1 (Ain) and 36 (Indre), 67 (Bas-Rhin) to 90 (Belfort) excluding those in Ile-de-France, some overseas collectivities (Guyane, Polynesia, Wallis-et-Futuna, Saint-Barth and Saint-Martin) and 6 of the 12 senators for the expats. If you don't know what this means the Senate has a map: http://www.senat.fr/senatoriales2014/

The Senate is elected indirectly by an electoral college of 'grands électeurs' of elected officials. This includes deputies and senators, regional councillors from the department, general councillors and delegates from municipal councils (they make up 95% of the electoral college). The number of delegates from municipal councils is based on the size of the municipal council:



Departments have a variable number of seats loosely based on population. Departments with 1 or 2 senators elect them using majority voting - individuals run separately, electors have as many votes as there are seats and candidates require an absolute majority in the first round to win or a plurality in successive rounds. Departments with 3 or more senators elect them by proportional representation (highest averages) - parties run closed lists of candidates, electors vote for lists and so forth. A 2013 law lowered the threshold for election by PR from 4 seats to 3 seats, so a number of 3-seat departments whose members were elected by majority voting in the last election will now be elected by PR (which entails gender parity on the lists).

The current composition of the Senate is as follows (by group)
UMP 130 seats incl. 77 Series 2
SOC 128 seats incl. 65 Series 2
UDI-UC 31 seats incl. 13 Series 2
CRC 21 seats incl. 5 Series 2
RDSE 19 seats incl. 12 Series 2
Ecolo 10 seats incl. 0 Series 2
NI 6 seats incl. 4 Series 2 - all right-wingers
Vacant 3 seats (1 Series 1, in Mayenne, will be elected on the same day in a by-election) - all formerly held by the right

Left 177 vs. Right 168

The breakdown by departments with an election in 2014:
Ain: 2 SOC, 1 UDI-UC
Aisne: 2 UMP, 2 SOC
Allier: 1 UMP, 1 CRC
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence: 1 SOC
Hautes-Alpes: 1 NI
Alpes-Maritimes: 4 UMP, 1 SOC
Ardèche: 2 SOC
Ardennes: 2 UMP
Ariège: 1 SOC
Aube: 1 NI, 1 UMP
Aude: 2 SOC
Aveyron: 1 SOC, 1 RDSE
Bouches-du-Rhône: 4 SOC, 3 UMP, 1 CRC
Calvados: 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC
Cantal: 1 UDI-UC, 1 RDSE
Charente: 2 SOC
Charente-Maritime: 2 UMP, 1 Vacant (UMP)
Cher: 2 UMP
Corrèze: 2 SOC
Haute-Corse: 1 RDSE
Corse-du-Sud: 1 RDSE
Côte-d'Or: 2 SOC, 1 UMP
Côtes-d'Armor: 2 SOC, 1 CRC
Creuse: 2 SOC
Dordogne: 2 SOC
Doubs: 2 SOC, 1 UMP
Drôme: 3 SOC
Eure: 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC
Eure-et-Loir: 3 UMP
Finistère: 3 SOC, 1 UMP
Gard: 2 SOC, 1 UMP
Haute-Garonne: 2 SOC, 2 RDSE, 1 UMP
Gers: 1 RDSE, 1 UDI-UC
Gironde: 3 UMP, 3 SOC
Hérault: 2 UMP, 1 SOC, 1 RDSE
Ille-et-Vilaine: 3 SOC, 1 UMP
Indre: 2 UMP
Bas-Rhin: 4 UMP, 1 SOC
Haut-Rhin: 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC, 1 SOC
Rhône: 2 UMP, 2 SOC, 2 UDI-UC, 1 CRC
Haute-Saône: 2 SOC
Saône-et-Loire: 3 UMP
Sarthe: 3 UMP
Savoie: 1 SOC, 1 UMP
Haute-Savoie: 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC
Seine-Maritime: 2 UMP, 2 SOC, 1 UDI-UC, 1 CRC
Deux-Sèvres: 2 UMP
Somme: 2 UDI-UC, 1 UMP
Tarn: 2 SOC
Tarn-et-Garonne: 2 RDSE
Var: 3 UMP, 1 RDSE
Vaucluse: 2 UMP, 1 SOC
Vendée: 1 NI, 1 UDI-UC, 1 UMP
Vienne: 2 UMP
Haute-Vienne: 2 SOC
Vosges: 2 UMP
Yonne: 2 UMP
Territoire de Belfort: 1 RDSE
Guyane: 2 SOC
Saint-Barth: 1 UMP
Saint-Martin: 1 Vacant (UMP)
Wallis-et-Futuna: 1 UMP
Polynesia: 1 NI, 1 SOC
Expats: 4 UMP, 2 SOC

[Antonio the Sixth]

I had read a while back that the PS had made some slight changes to the electoral system in order to correct the misrepresentation issues. What are they exactly?

[Harry Hayfield]

That will give me something to tide me over until the Mid Terms I say (presumably live coverage on TV5 Monde and France 24?)

[Zanas]

Not sure you can expect anything more than a coverage on LCP-Public Sénat, the parliamentary channel...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not sure you can expect anything more than a coverage on LCP-Public Sénat, the parliamentary channel...

I remember France Inter (the major public radio) covered the 2011 elections extensively. But then again, those were a bit unusual in their stakes.

[Jens]

What kind of pay do the senators get?

[Bacon King]

What kind of pay do the senators get?

from wiki:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(this is identical to the compensation allotted to members of the National Assembly, except they can spend a bit more on assistants than Senators can)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Hollande was intelligent he'd have abolished the Senate as a popular "savings" package, so this wouldn't be happening.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If Hollande was intelligent he'd have abolished the Senate as a popular "savings" package, so this wouldn't be happening.

In fairness, he would never have been able to get the 60% majority necessary to do that.

Of course, the fact that he didn't even try anything more basic re:constitutional reform is inexcusable, but then again we're talking about Flamby.

[Hash]

I had read a while back that the PS had made some slight changes to the electoral system in order to correct the misrepresentation issues. What are they exactly?

As far as I know, I think it was lowering the threshold for using PR from 4 to 3 senators (already lowered by Jospin in 2000 but raised back by the right in 2003) and that all communes with over 30,000 elect one additional delegate for each extra 800 inhabitant instead of each extra 1,000 in the past, meaning that instead of 12.5k additional delegates pre-2013 you now have 15.7k. In other words, very minor cosmetic changes which don't change much to the real misrepresentation issues (colour me shocked!).

If Hollande was intelligent he'd have abolished the Senate as a popular "savings" package, so this wouldn't be happening.

In fairness, he would never have been able to get the 60% majority necessary to do that.

Of course, the fact that he didn't even try anything more basic re:constitutional reform is inexcusable, but then again we're talking about Flamby.

Yes, it's probably as impossible to abolish the Senate in France as it is in Canada. The Senate is filled with some rather powerful local barons and senior party apparatchiks, both on the right and PS, who obviously won't vote to abolish their gig. Besides, abolition of the Senate is not, as far as I know, an issue in France - I can't really recall recent politicians who aren't totally irrelevant actually proposing such a thing. There's also a sense that the Senate serves a key role as a chamber representative of local communities/communes and, to its credit, isn't as big of a joke as the Canadian Senate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obviously the right took it back.

Thanks, Hollande, for making sure that a historical conquest of the left would be nothing more than a historical anomaly.

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Some hilarious sweet as results out there (lol PS)

Bouches-du-Rhône
UMP-UDI (Gaudin/Joissains/Gilles) 38.4% - 3 seats
Guérini 30.1% - 3 seats (!)
FN (Ravier) 12.4% - 1 seat
PS (Samia Ghali) 9.8% - 1 seat (lolps)
PCF (Pasquet, incumbent) 6.2% - 0 seats

Probably the funniest sh**t, this one. Great job guys.

Hérault
J-P Grand (ex-villepiniste deputy, mayor of Castelnau-le-Lez) 21.3% - 1 seat
UMP-UDI (François Commeinhes, mayor of Sète) 19.4% - 1 seat
PS official (Henri Cabanel, VP of the CG) 16.4% - 1 seat
Robert Navarro (corrupt ex-PS incumbent, DVG interim President of the CR) 11.2% - 1 seat
Christian Bilhac (PS dissident-PRG, 'mayors candidate') 10.3% - 0 seats
FN 5.9%
Raymond Couderc (incumbent UMP senator, running as a dissident, former mayor of Béziers) 5%
PCF 4.2%
PG 3.1%

Tarn-et-Garonne
Yvon Collin (PRG, inc) 56% - elected R1
UMP random guy (François Bonhomme) 43.9%
Jean-Michel Baylet (PRG inc and PRG leader) 37.4%
Francis Labruyère (PRG) 25.4%
DVG 6.1%
UDI 5.5%
FN 5.3%
FG 4.7%
EELV 4.6%
DLR 0.3%

Runoff:
UMP random guy (François Bonhomme) 50.8% (!)
Jean-Michel Baylet (PRG inc and PRG leader) 41.3% (trololol)
DVG 2%
FN 1.8%
EELV 4.1%

Var
UMP (Falco) 50.8% - 2 seats
PS/RDSE (Pierre-Yves Collombat, inc) 20.8% - 1 seat
FN (David Rachline, mayor of Fréjus) 19% - 1 seat

Vaucluse
PS 32% - 2 seats (+1!)
Alain Milon (UMP inc) 24.1% - 1 seat
Alain Dufaut (UMP inc) 16% - 0
Philippe Lottiaux (FN) 10.4%
Marie-Claude Bompard (LDS mayor of Bollène) 8.5%

[Zanas]

PS still manages to keep their seat in Alpes de Haute Provence out of the blue, and one seat in Haut-Rhin as well, which is practically science fiction at this point !

Also, first right-wing senator in like, ever, in Haute-Vienne : Gabouty, UDI. Was to be expected with the loss of Limoges in March.

PCF manages to keep 2 out of 5 up for reelection, Prunaud, a new woman in Côtes d'Armor on a PS list, and Foucaud standing for reelection as PCF-FG in Seine-Maritime.

EELV had no seats up. 2017, where the other half is much more left-wing than the one this year, will be a bloodshed...

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Other observations:

• The UMP-UDI's results in the Bouches-du-Rhône are pretty terrible - 38.4% is less than they won in 2008, despite a fairly good performance by the right in March 2014 in the department. The UMP was widely expected to win a fourth seat, yet they fell quite short. It seems that the unpopularity of the new Marseille-Aix Métropole with small communes outside Marseille hit both the PS (obviously) but also the UMP, and benefited Guérini.
• The PS held its last seat in the Bouches-du-Rhône by only 5 votes. 5 votes less, and they would have won no seats (and the UMP would have taken 4).
• Digging into the Tarn-et-Garonne, senator Yvon Collin (PRG incumbent since 1988) was not actually supported by the PRG since he had a nasty falling out with Baylet, and Collin was supported by Brigitte Barèges, the (very nasty) UMP mayor of Montauban. The UMP had only one candidate, François Bonhomme, who is the mayor of Caussade since 2008 (when he defeated Collin, who had himself defeated Bonhomme's father, a long-time député-maire, in 1989). So, it's a massive victory for the anti-Baylet front and a big defeat for the hegemonic PRG.
• In the Haute-Vienne, in addition to the loss of Limoges (19% of the voters), the new UDI sénateur-maire (of Couzeix) Jean-Marc Gabouty was in an alliance with Monique Boulestin (who was his suppléante-candidate), a former PS (now PRG) deputy from 2007 to 2012 (she was defeated running for reelection as a PS dissident in 2012, because her seat was killed in redistricting) so that may have helped pull a few DVG votes. A strong performance from Pierre Allard, the ADS (FG) mayor of Saint-Junien (27% in the first round) who maintained himself in the runoff (23%) did the rest.
• A severe under-performance by Michel Mercier (UDI) in the Rhône, with 15.5% (21.9% in 2004) and less votes than in 2004 despite a larger electorate; despite a fairly strong list with rural roots. He is very likely paying the price for the Mercier-Collomb territorial reform (the transformation of the Grand Lyon into a de facto department in 2015), and here the UMP is the one who benefits (unlike in the 13).
• A 4-1 left advantage in the Haute-Garonne becomes a 3-2 right advantage, fairly predictable due to the right's gains in Toulouse and some other towns here in March.
• One of the pleasant surprises for the PS is indeed the Haut-Rhin, where it saves one seat without too much trouble, despite a terrible record in terms of municipal control since the last renewal here (in 2004).
• In the Eure, the official UMP-UDI list led by senator Hervé Maurey (UDI) easily dominated with 45% and 2 seats. The third seat went to UMP senator Ladislas Poniatowski, who ran as a dissident. The PS, despite the switch to PR here, narrowly failed to win the third seat (321 votes for Poniatowski vs. 306 for the PS); granted, the PS did terribly here in March. The other UMP incumbent, Joël Bourdin, also running a dissident list, got only 10%. Because all 3 incumbents were men, and the switch to PR imposes gender parity on lists, the right's incumbents all went different ways. A fairly similar case in the Eure-et-Loir, where the list of UMP senator Albéric de Montgolfier (with senator Joël Billard in third on the list) won 38.7% and 2 seats against 26.9% and 1 seat for the UMP senator Gérard Cornu. With 15.8%, the PRG mayor of Nogent-le-Rotrou François Huwart falls quite short of a seat, in some part due to a dissident list (7.6%).
• Thanks to the switch to PR, the PS gains a seat in Saône-et-Loire, with the PS-PRG list winning 24.5% and second place behind the official UMP list of senator Jean-Patrick Courtois (30.1%) and ahead of the dissident UMP list of senator Jean-Paul Emorine (22.4%). Same thing in the Calvados (despite the loss of Caen and Vire in March), where the PS gets a seat with 24.5%, third place behind the UDI list of senator/CG president Jean-Léonce Dupont (33.2%) and the UMP list (25.1%). Same thing in Charente-Maritime, Sarthe, Somme. On the other hand, this contributed (although not entirely) to the UMP gain in the Côtes-d'Armor (in addition, it should be noted that the MoDem mayor of Saint-Brieuc, Bruno Joncour, won 20.1% and didn't come far behind the UMP list of Dinan-Est CG Michel Vaspart - backed by UMP deputy Marc Le Fur - who won 24.2%).
• In Corrèze, after some important PS loses in March, the right regains the two seats it lost there in 2008. Among the PS defeated is Bernard Combes, the PS mayor of Tulles (Flanbystan) and a close adviser to Flanby, who loses 53% to 46% in the second round of voting.
• Very disappointing result for Christian Troadec, the very activist regionalist mayor of Carhaix (Finistère) after his big EP success in the Poher region. He won only 5.5%, less than he won in the 2008 elections. Otherwise, the PS lost its third seat here to the UDI list of Michel Canevet, the mayor of Plonéour-Lanvern; that also means that the UMP wins only one seat, for incumbent senator-mayor (of Douarnenez) Philippe Paul (and none for Agnès Le Brun, mayor of Morlaix, kthx bye)
• In the Haute-Savoie, all 3 seats are split between 3 right-wing lists: the winner is the official UMP list of senator Jean-Claude Carle (29.8%), followed by the parallel UMP list of Cyril Pellevat (supported by Bernard Accoyer) with 21.8% and 19.1% for the UDI list. The PS list won only 3.4%, behind the FN and EELV, with 12.5% going to a dissident PS list. And in Savoie, PS senator Thierry Repentin (who was junior minister for European affairs under Ayrault) was defeated, kind of expected after the loss of Chambéry, with the 2 seats going to UMP incumbent Jean-Pierre Vial and former UMP deputy (defeated in 2012) Michel Bouvard.
• In the Vaucluse, the PS gained a seat - so it now holds a 2-1 lead in that department's Senate delegation. The gain of Avignon in March plays a large role, although the division of the right and the far-right is perhaps even more important. The UMP had two lists, led by incumbent senators Alain Milon (24.1% and 1 seat) and Alain Dufaut (16%) respectively. The far-right was divided between the FN list of Philippe Lottiaux, the FN's candidate in Avignon in March, who won 10.4%, and the Ligue du Sud list (8.5%) led by Marie-Claude Bompard, the mayor of Bollène and wife of Jacques Bompard, the LS député-maire of Orange. The PS won the last seat over the second UMP list with a margin of 0 votes: 196 votes for Dufaut's UMP list, and 392/(1+1)=196 for the PS; it won because it had the most votes originally (392 vs 196). A united UMP list would have won 2 seats, a united FN-LS list would have won one seat (if the UMP was still divided), and if both the UMP and FN-LS were united the third seat would narrowly have gone to the united right.
• It's obvious that the FN lists won a few more votes than their theoretical votes - I don't have any numbers, but others have found that they won more votes than the estimated number of FN/EXD electors, so likely a number of DVD electors from small places voted FN. In the Aube, the FN list won 82 votes (8.5%) despite not having more than a dozen municipal councillors there. In the Aisne, the FN list won 167 votes (9.8%) despite probably no more than 40 FN electors there. However, nothing very surprising in this.
• In the DOMs: In Guyane, Antoine Karam (DVG), the former PSG president of the CR (1992-2010), defeated incumbent Walwari-DVG senator Jean-Étienne Antoinette and others; I've heard rumblings that Karam may have been backed by his successor as president of the CR Rodolphe Alexandre (UMP ex-DVG). In Saint-Martin, a vacant seat (last held by the UMP), a DVG guy has won in the ridiculously tiny electorate (24 votes). The winner seems to be from the left-wing party which won the 2012 territorial elections. I can't pretend to understand French Polynesia, but the right (Gaston Flosse's Tahoeraa huiraatira, which won the 2013 elections) has won the two seats, defeating, among others, incumbent nationalist senator Richard Tuheiava (Tavini Huiraatira), who had won with Flosse in 2008.
• The presidency of the Senate will go to the UMP, which chooses a candidate tomorrow: the candidates there are former president of the Senate Gérard Larcher, a filloniste (for 2017); former Prime Minister and Vienne senator Jean-Pierre Raffarin, unaligned but traditionally quite anti-Fillon above all else; and the very right-wing president of the finance commission Philippe Marini (Oise). All 3 had already fought in a similar primary for the top spot in 2008, and Larcher had won. The winner will win, probably in the second round of voting (the UMP has no absolute majority by itself), against Didier Guillaume (the new leader of the PS in the Senate, who seems to be a talentless apparatchik) and Nathalie Goulet (a maverick UDI senator, who is not officially backed by the UDI-UC group, and is running for the sake of it and admits herself she has no chance - in her words because she's not a 65 year old cumulard male)

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Nobody seems to care (obviously), but this seems to be the composition of the new Senate by group, compared to pre-election (keep in mind 3 vacant seats - which were previously 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC):

UMP 143 seats (+13)
SOC 112 seats (-16)
UDI-UC 39 seats (+8)
CRC 18 seats (-3)
RDSE 12 seats (-7) - 11 left, 1 right
Ecolo 10 seats (nc)
DVG 5 seats (Guérinistes, Navarro and Saint-Martin)
RASNAG (DVD) 3 seats (-3)
DVD 4 seats (all new: JP Grand, DVD guy in the Doubs and 2 Polynesians)
FN 2 seats

RIGHT 190 (+22/+19)
LEFT 156 (-21)
FN 2 (+2)
15 seat majority for the right.

Those in italics won't/can't form their own group - my guess is that the guérinistes join the RDSE (given that Guérini's henchmen have taken over the local PRG), the other two DVG join the SOC group, the 2 Polynesians go with UDI-UC and the other 2 metro DVD join the UMP group. The FN senators will likely join the RASNAG (Non-inscrits) group, which will change that group from being a bunch of maverick right-wingers to a real ragtag non-inscrit group.

So, some sharp loses for the RDSE - the old group, which was historically one of the Senate's power blocs and hegemonic forces and which included both left and right-wingers, is getting increasingly weak and is basically a rump left-wing, non-PS (and non-EELV/non-PCF) group. This year it lost:
Anne-Marie Escoffier (PRG, Aveyron) - defeated
Nicolas Alfonsi (PRG, Corse-du-Sud) - retired, UMP gain
Jean-Pierre Plancade (PRG, Haute-Garonne) - retired
Raymond Vall (PRG, Gers) - defeated
Robert Tropéano (PRG, Hérault) - defeated, fifth on Christian Bilhac's dissident PS-PRG list
Jean-Michel Baylet (PRG, Tarn-et-Garonne) - defeated
Jean-Pierre Chevènement (MRC, Territoire-de-Belfort) - retired, UMP gain

The PCF lost 3 seats:
Mireille Schurch (PCF, Allier) - retired, PCF candidates won 16% and 15%, 24% in second round (PCF had gained the seat in 2008, in a PS-PCF alliance)
Isabelle Pasquet (PCF, Bouches-du-Rhone) - defeated, elected on united left list in 2008, ran for reelection on FG list (6.2%)
Guy Fischer (PCF, Rhone) - defeated, elected on united left list in 2004, in symbolic last place on the FG list of Martial Passi, PCF mayor of Givors (9.3%)

[Hash]

Gérard Larcher has won the UMP Senate presidency primary - 80 votes to 56 for Raffarin, and only 7 for Marini. A lot is being made of this, specifically how it's a small defeat for Sarkozy, who was unofficially supporting Raffarin. In reality, it's not all that surprising: UMP senators are, compared to UMP député(e)s, a much calmer group of folks - more moderate, consensual, pragmatic with very few hotheaded crazy motormouths who want to imitate the FN. For example, in 2012, most UMP senators had backed the level-headed Fillon over the hothead Copé. Raffarin is from the centre (the old Démocratie libérale) and is still considered a centrist in the UMP (while Larcher is a former Gaullist/ex-RPR) and both are old white men who can bore anybody to death (although they're still less stereotypical than Christian Poncelet, who was literally a senile old geezer about to kick the bucket); but Raffarin was running on the promise of being a more high-profile, media-savvy president who would be confrontational with Flanby, while Larcher ran a Senate-centric campaign and has the image of a certain bonhomie (that being said, it's the Senate, so Raffarin is not much different notwithstanding Lorie/Star Ac cringeworthy attempts at being hip). Larcher also served as President of the Senate from 2008 to 2011, which isn't considered a 'full-term' since his predecessors have usually served a very long time, and thus probably had added legitimacy.

Nathalie Goulet is also not running, so instead UDI-AC senator François Zocchetto (mayor of Laval) is the UDI's candidate. There's a small chance that, in a second or third round, the PS withdraws and the left votes for Zocchetto, who would then (in theory) win with left-wing and UDI votes. Still very unlikely, but still. In irrelevant news, the horrible Jean-Vincent Placé is EELV's ceremonial candidate for the presidency.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Larcher defeated Raffarin once again. Good, I guess.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Remind me once again what exacly is the purpouse of Senate?

[Hash]

And a final wrap-up:

The election of the President:

R1 - 4 blank votes
Gérard Larcher (UMP): 145
Didier Guillaume (PS): 112
François Zocchetto (UDI-UC): 45
Eliane Assassi (CRC): 18
Jean-Vincent Placé (EELV): 10
Jacques Mézard (RDSE): 13
Nathalie Goulet (UDI-UC - not candidate): 1

R2 - 2 not voting, 9 blank votes
Gérard Larcher (UMP): 194
Didier Guillaume (PS): 124
Eliane Assassi (CRC): 18
Philippe Marini (UMP, not candidate): 1

Votes generally matched up with expected composition of the groups - Zocchetto did do a bit better than the UDI-UC's group (expected at 43 seats now - from my list two days ago, it added the 2 Polynesians, a DVD guy from the Doubs and UDI member Sophie Joissains who defected from the UMP). The idea of the PS withdrawing and the UDI-UC winning with their support was obviously way too troisième république to happen

The UMP also had a race for group president:
Bruno Retailleau (Vendée): 79 - President of the CG, filloniste, ex-MPF (Philippe de Villiers vetoed his cabinet nomination in 2009 and that pissed him off, and he quit the MPF in 2010, right around when the thing died)
Roger Karoutchi (Hauts-de-Seine): 39 - rather doltish sarkozyste, ex-séguiniste/copéiste (2012)
Gérard Longuet (Meuse): 25 - former defense minister (2011-2012) and group president (2009-2011); liberal (ex-UDF/PR, but not DL), filloniste in 2012