What is Jeb Bush's base?

[IceSpear]

In most polls where Jeb is included, he tends to do respectably. Why? What is his base?

- Libertarians are solidly with Rand, and even if they weren't they'd be wary of his brother's neocon ties
- The remaining moderates tend to be with Christie, perhaps some of the more eccentric moderates with Rand. I doubt going back to the Bush years is something that moderate Republicans want.
- The Tea Partiers are split between several others, and they despise Jeb because of common core/his position on immigration reform.
- The hardcore SoCons have Huckabee/Santorum and probably distrust that Jeb would prioritize their issues anyway.
- The nativist single issue immigration voters hate Jeb the most (well, maybe second to Rubio).

So where is his support coming from? Beltway pundits/billionaire donors can't make up more than <1% of voters.

[GOON]

He doesn't have one.

[Lief 🗽]

He doesn't have one.

Correct. An unabashed supporter of amnesty and common core will go absolutely nowhere in a Republican primary.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In most polls where Jeb is included, he tends to do respectably. Why? What is his base?

The Tea Party.

[IceSpear]

He doesn't have one.

Correct. An unabashed supporter of amnesty and common core will go absolutely nowhere in a Republican primary.

Yes, that's what I'd expect. But somehow he still does decent in the polls.

[GOON]

In most polls where Jeb is included, he tends to do respectably. Why? What is his base?

The Tea Party.

Jeb's positions don't resemble anything close to a Tea Party platform.

If anything's Jeb's performance in polls is due to name recognition.

[Mr. Morden]

Look at the crosstabs of the primary polls.  Like Christie, he does better among "moderates" and "somewhat conservative" GOP primary voters than those who describe themselves as "very conservative".  However, compared to Christie, his supporters tend to be older and more concentrated in the South.  Christie does better among the moderates who are younger and more in the North.

[Lincoln Republican]

Jeb has the intelligence and the gravitas to be a viable candidate and a competent President.

Hence, he is a top tier candidate.

[bedstuy]

He doesn't have one.

Correct. An unabashed supporter of amnesty and common core will go absolutely nowhere in a Republican primary.

Yes, that's what I'd expect. But somehow he still does decent in the polls.

The election hasn't started yet, people just volunteer a name that they've heard before.  Remember the 2004 polling that had Joe Lieberman as the frontrunner for the nomination?  This is basically the same.

[IceSpear]

Jeb has the intelligence and the gravitas to be a viable candidate and a competent President.

Hence, he is a top tier candidate.

Okay, apparently Rhode Island Republicans are one of Jeb's stronger demographics. Since there's about five of those total, I'm not sure how much this helps him.

[New_Conservative]

I'm a Millennial Northeastern Agnostic Republican and would probably get behind a Jeb Bush campaign. I haven't made up of mind yet of course, still more than a year to do that, but he'd probably be up there for me. His positions on immigration is not a deal breaker for me, but Common Core is close to it. Maybe Northeastern/"Moderates" in the GOP would be his base?

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I don't understand the sarcasm here. 49% of Rhode Island are not enrolled in a politically party, so theoretically some of those voters could vote in the GOP Primary if they chosen to.

[Stranger in a strange land]

In most polls where Jeb is included, he tends to do respectably. Why? What is his base?

The Tea Party.

There will be at least a half dozen Tea Party candidates. Of course they'll support him in the general, but they'd much prefer a fire-breather in the primary.

To answer the question, Jeb's base is moderate and somewhat conservative Republicans. While there probably aren't enough of them left for him to win the nomination, his only hope is to win the New Hampshire primary against a divided field of Tea Partiers and SoCons, and then build on the momentum from that. All easier said than done.

[IceSpear]

I'm a Millennial Northeastern Agnostic Republican and would probably get behind a Jeb Bush campaign. I haven't made up of mind yet of course, still more than a year to do that, but he'd probably be up there for me. His positions on immigration is not a deal breaker for me, but Common Core is close to it. Maybe Northeastern/"Moderates" in the GOP would be his base?

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I don't understand the sarcasm here. 49% of Rhode Island are not enrolled in a politically party, so theoretically some of those voters could vote in the GOP Primary if they chosen to.

Northeastern moderates sounds like Christie territory to me. Maybe some defected because of Bridgegate?

Also, it was a joke.

[Free Bird]

He doesn't have one.

Correct. An unabashed supporter of amnesty and common core will go absolutely nowhere in a Republican primary.

[New_Conservative]

I'm a Millennial Northeastern Agnostic Republican and would probably get behind a Jeb Bush campaign. I haven't made up of mind yet of course, still more than a year to do that, but he'd probably be up there for me. His positions on immigration is not a deal breaker for me, but Common Core is close to it. Maybe Northeastern/"Moderates" in the GOP would be his base?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't understand the sarcasm here. 49% of Rhode Island are not enrolled in a politically party, so theoretically some of those voters could vote in the GOP Primary if they chosen to.

Northeastern moderates sounds like Christie territory to me. Maybe some defected because of Bridgegate?

Also, it was a joke.

Bridgegate was a major reason I personally shied away from him.

[Maxwell]

In most polls where Jeb is included, he tends to do respectably. Why? What is his base?

The Tea Party.

Jeb's positions don't resemble anything close to a Tea Party platform.

If anything's Jeb's performance in polls is due to name recognition.

You're new. Don't respond to bandit as if he has anything serious to say.

Also, Jeb Bush has no base. His voters could easily go for someone else. They're probably mostly people who really like W.

[BaconBacon96]

Honestly, I think moderates are his biggest base, especially outside the North. Not all the moderates would be sold on Christie.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Perhaps moderates who are turned away by Christie's abrasiveness?

[Roemerista]

Christie isn't all that moderate.

I think it's just name recognition, to be honest.

Personally I like Jeb because of his education and immigration positions.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie isn't all that moderate.

But he (and Bush) get disproportionately large support from self-described moderates in GOP primary polls.

E.g., to take a recent example, in the most recent PPP poll of Alaska, the relative vote share of Bush, Christie, and Cruz among all GOP primary voters was:

Cruz 16%
Bush 12%
Christie 12%

But among moderates, it was:

Christie 30%
Bush 20%
Cruz 6%

Among "somewhat conservative" voters:

Cruz 13%
Christie 10%
Bush 9%

And among "very conservative" voters:

Cruz 26%
Bush 10%
Christie 1%

So, quite a difference in support based on ideology.

[dmmidmi]

Republicans who were in a coma from 2001-2009.

[MATTROSE94]

I guess that Jeb Bush shares the same part of the Republican base as Chris Christie, John Huntsman and (to some extent) Scott Walker, which is the "moderate" establishment faction of the Republican Party. In contrast, Rand Paul represents the Libertarian faction, Ted Cruz represents the Tea Party/True Conservative faction and Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee represent the Christian Right faction of the Republican Party.

In 2016, I feel that the Tea Party/True Conservative faction of the Republican Party will ultimately triumph in the primary election for President.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jeb has the intelligence and the gravitas to be a viable candidate and a competent President.

Hence, he is a top tier candidate.

If that were all it took, Huntsman would've been a top-tier candidate.

[ElectionsGuy]

Good question. He probably collects a mixed group of people. A few moderates, old school GOPers, republicans who don't pay attention to politics much, and big government conservatives (Del Tachi types). I think his support will dye down in the next year. With his positions, a republican primary will be tough, unless people really want status quo and literally another Bush.

[Maxwell]

Good question. He probably collects a mixed group of people. A few moderates, old school GOPers, republicans who don't pay attention to politics much, and big government conservatives (Del Tachi types). I think his support will dye down in the next year. With his positions, a republican primary will be tough, unless people really want status quo and literally another Bush.

But Bob McDonnell isn't running...