Scottish independence referendum prediction thread

[Phony Moderate]

Predict the following. Best entry wins virtual cookies or something.


Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side):

Turnout (to the first decimal point):

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond

[Phony Moderate]

May as well post my own while we're at it.


Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side): Yes 51.6%, No 48.4%

Turnout (to the first decimal point): 86.1%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond None of these

[politicus]

Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side): Yes 49.7%, No 50.3%

Turnout (to the first decimal point): 90.3%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

My feeling is YES is going to win now

YES: 50.7% NO: 49.3%

Turnout: 92.5%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond. NOTA

[sirius3100]

Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side): Yes 53.9%, No 46.1%

Turnout (to the first decimal point): 91.2%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond None

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Also any predictions for most 'Yes' and 'No' regions? Apparently counting is done by Council region so...

Most YES (no order)
Angus
Moray
Western Isles

Most NO (no order, except for the first):
Shetland
Scottish Borders
Orkney

[Cassius]

My feeling is that Better Together will have its arse pulled out of the fire in the nick of time, in spite of the drongos running it.

Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side): No: 52.5%, Yes: 47.5%

Turnout (to the first decimal point): 78.5%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond: None

[politicus]

Most YES:

Western Isles


Most NO :

Shetland

[politicus]

Turnout (to the first decimal point): 78.5%

Why do you expect such a low turnout?

[afleitch]

Also any predictions for most 'Yes' and 'No' regions? Apparently counting is done by Council region so...

Most YES (no order)
Angus
Moray
Western Isles

Most NO (no order, except for the first):
Shetland
Scottish Borders
Orkney

While I won't be making a prediction (because I might make myself ill ) On the matter of areas of strength, Eilean Siar is quite tense at the moment. The Wee Frees are very much No, feart of a Catholic independent Scotland. I'd say the strongest Yes area might be Dundee.

[ilikeverin]

You guys are putting way too much stock into "momentum".  Silent "no" majority.

Overall result: Yes 47.4%, No 52.6%
Turnout: 92.4%
A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so? None (Salmond tries to spin it as a victory, and promises to try again.  He does not get his opportunity.  Separatism wanes for a while.)

[politicus]

Also any predictions for most 'Yes' and 'No' regions? Apparently counting is done by Council region so...

Most YES (no order)
Angus
Moray
Western Isles

Most NO (no order, except for the first):
Shetland
Scottish Borders
Orkney

While I won't be making a prediction (because I might make myself ill ) On the matter of areas of strength, Eilean Siar is quite tense at the moment. The Wee Frees are very much No, feart of a Catholic independent Scotland. I'd say the strongest Yes area might be Dundee.

Why Dundee over Angus?

Sounds almost incredible that the Wee Frees are that paranoid, but they are after all a relatively small voting bloc. I suppose its enough to relegate Western Isles from the top spot, but presumably they will still be in the Top 5 for Yes.

[Zanas]

Overall : 53.8 No ; 46.2 Yes

Turnout : 84.2 %

Resignations : Prince George of Cambridge.

[afleitch]

Also any predictions for most 'Yes' and 'No' regions? Apparently counting is done by Council region so...

Most YES (no order)
Angus
Moray
Western Isles

Most NO (no order, except for the first):
Shetland
Scottish Borders
Orkney

While I won't be making a prediction (because I might make myself ill ) On the matter of areas of strength, Eilean Siar is quite tense at the moment. The Wee Frees are very much No, feart of a Catholic independent Scotland. I'd say the strongest Yes area might be Dundee.

Why Dundee over Angus?

Sounds almost incredible that the Wee Frees are that paranoid, but they are after all a relatively small voting bloc. I suppose its enough to relegate Western Isles from the top spot, but presumably they will still be in the Top 5 for Yes.

Because strong rural support for the SNP, which in many cases is still a 'not the Tories' coalition does not necessarily imply strong support for independence. Angus will be strong but looking at the crosstabs, it's likely that Yes will perform better in more urban areas. The strongest areas in 1997 were West Dunbartonshire, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire for example. This might be the case again this time round. Orkney and Shetland might vote no based on that experience. Which might, in the event of a Yes vote, lead to some people trying to suggest that Scotland can be dismembered accordingly.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Extremely high turnout, possibly in the realms of 86% or higher.

No wins 52% to 48%; but I have no idea what the map would look like.

[You kip if you want to...]

Extremely high turnout, possibly in the realms of 86% or higher.

No wins 52% to 48%; but I have no idea what the map would look like.

Worth inferring anything from this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997#Results

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Extremely high turnout, possibly in the realms of 86% or higher.

No wins 52% to 48%; but I have no idea what the map would look like.

Worth inferring anything from this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997#Results

Yeah; Borders, Dumfries and the Northern Isles seem like obvious no's. (I though Aberdeenshire would be higher, but I'm not sure why).

The wild card is Glasgow and the Labour belt - who all seemed pretty enthusiastic that time round, but may not be when the Labour machine is conspiring against independence.

[EPG]

I think the recent polls will alert voters that it's for real, and it will be more like 56 No - 44 Yes.

[afleitch]

When it comes to identity questions in the census; Scottish only v British only/English only, the strongest 'Scottish' areas are the areas that voted the most strongly for devolution last time round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on current number, I'd still bet on No (by 51 to 53%), but everything depends on the movement we see in polls throughout the next week.

[You kip if you want to...]

Extremely high turnout, possibly in the realms of 86% or higher.

No wins 52% to 48%; but I have no idea what the map would look like.

Worth inferring anything from this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1997#Results

Yeah; Borders, Dumfries and the Northern Isles seem like obvious no's. (I though Aberdeenshire would be higher, but I'm not sure why).

Maybe because the SNP tend to do fairly well up there (Banff as well, ofc), but the big three all have their areas of strength in Aberdeenshire, so the unionist vote is fairly split in a normal election.

[Simfan34]

59.8% - NO
40.2% - YES

[Talleyrand]

Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side): Yes 50.9%, No 49.1%

Turnout (to the first decimal point): 91.8%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond None

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It doesn't help that this sort of vote is beyond the proven capabilities of the polling industry. I would guess (heavy stress on that word) that No is more likely to win than Yes, but wouldn't care to estimate percentages. A lot of very different outcomes strike me as quite plausible.

Incidentally, there's a reasonable chance that the more heavily populated areas will be fairly close to the overall percentage.

[jaichind]

Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side): Yes 48.9%, No 51.1%

Turnout (to the first decimal point): 87.2%