Scottish independence referendum prediction thread

[eric82oslo]

My prediction is:

Yes: 49.9%
No: 50.1%

[Tender Branson]

50.38% NO
49.62% YES

Turnout: 91.1% (ca. 4 million voters that would be, I guess)

[Donnie]

YES: 50.41%
NO: 49.59%

[ChrisDR68]

Still over 20% of people saying they are undecided. My guess is around two thirds of those will vote to stay in the union (there may possibly be a shy "no" voter effect in play right now similar to the shy Tory voter in UK General Elections in respect to the current opinion poll numbers).

Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side):

Yes 43.1%
No  56.9%

Turnout (to the first decimal point) 82.6%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond... None

[Unimog]

Yes 44,8
No  55,2

Turnout 91,7

No one resigns.

[The Mikado]

No idea about turnout.

I've been thinking roughly 52-48 for No, so...I guess I'll just pick that as the decimal point.

52.0 No
48.0 Yes

[SPQR]

No 54.1%
Yes 45.9%

Turnout: 91.2%

[Max Stirner]

no 55

turnout 75

[Antonio the Sixth]

59.8% - NO
40.2% - YES

LOL

[Harry Hayfield]

Turnout: Low 80's (83.5%)
Vote: YES 50.5% NO 49.5%
Implications: Cameron gets a vote of no confidence tabled against him which he wins (by 3) but is fatally damaged

[Hnv1]

I think the 'No' voters who thought it was a remote option until lately will go out in strength in the last minute
No- 56.2
Yes - 43.8

No resigns 

[Peeperkorn]

No - 55 - 45.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Result
No: 54.2%
Yes: 45.8%

Turnout
91.2%

Political consequences - No one resigns. The real consequences happen if Yes gets up.

..this will likely be updated.

But I will agree that overall the 'worst' possible outcome would be a narrow Yes win. As Parliament is supreme in this scenario and narrow win has the potential for some serious nastiness. As far as I'm concerned, it needs to win in a landslide, or at least convincingly (ie 10% margin or higher) or lose.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on current number, I'd still bet on No (by 51 to 53%), but everything depends on the movement we see in polls throughout the next week.

Updated to No by 53-55.

[swl]

No 52.5
Yes 47.5

[Niemeyerite]

Overall result (to the first decimal point for each side):

Yes 46.1%
No 53.9%

Turnout (to the first decimal point):

84.0%

A week after the result, which (if any) of the following will have resigned or have announced their intention to do so?: David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Alex Salmond

None.

[andrew_c]

Current trends appear very similar to Quebec '95.

Turnout: 95.4%

Result: YES 49.5%, NO 50.5%
Margin of victory may be less than the number of rejected ballots.

Resignations: None

[Paleobrazilian]

No 51.0%
Yes 49.0%

Turnout: 91.5%

[GMantis]

Independence referendums tend to either succeed by a large margin or fail. So:
No 50.5%
Yes 49.5%

Turnout 91.2%

No one resigns.

[Thomas D]

No: 51.8
Yes: 48.2

Turnout: 91.2

[Lincoln Republican]

No     55%
Yes    45%

No resignations.

Cameron survives, thankfully.  Great Prime Minister.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Yes, 52%
No, 48%

Turnout ~90%.

[YL]

Yes 47.8%
No 52.2%

Turnout 88.9%

No-one resigns.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes 47.6%
No 52.4%

84.7% Turnout

Salmond doesn't resign immediately, but he doesn't last much longer.

[Platypus]

No 51.7%

Turnout 86.8%

No resignations