Forty years.

[jaichind]

If  Mugabe falls from power, do you think the new regime will hand Mengistu back to Ethiopia?

[jaichind]

Since Eritrea's union with Ethiopia was mentioned, the split of Eritrea from Ethiopia which was consequence of the fall of the Derg regime is a complex and interesting one.  I was always interested for the reasons why TPLF went along with this.  Of course TPLF gained large amount of aid and support from EPLF so one could argue that it was payback.  Even at the time I was wondering if TPLF really believed in Eritrean independence or was just biding its time to consolidate itself before turning on Eritrea again which it eventually did in the mid to late 1990s.  There is a case to be made that TPLF truly believed that the split of Eritrea was for the better but as it became the ruling party of Ethiopia, it had to evolve its thinking on its topic to align with the majority non-Tigray population of Ethiopia on this topic.

[jaichind]

TPLF was rather dependent on the EPLF. It wasn't really a choice. There were several opportunities for an agreement on decentralisation or federalism that would have allowed Eritrea to remain part of Ethiopia- all of which the TPLF rejected out of hand. Having the EPLF as a force in a united Ethiopia would not allowed the TPLF to enjoy the free reign over the country it did after separation.

Even during the war, Meles resisted calls to press towards Assab, Asmara, and generally take over the country.

Thanks.  Never thought of it in that way but what you said makes a lot of sense.  Another question I have would be what is the TPLF opinion/position of Haile Selassie.  Obviously a common enemy of Derg would make TPLF have a positive opinion of Haile Selassie, but if I remember correctly the entire TPLF uprising was justified as an echo of an earlier Tigray uprising in the 1940s of which the opponent was the Haile Selassie regime. 

[jaichind]

Thanks for your insights, they were very useful.  Even as these events were taking places back in the 1980s I never saw Derg as some sort of true hardcore Marxists.  It was clear that was a way to scam some aid from the USSR to help them deal with the EPLF and Somalia back in the late 1970s.  Ethiopia was going to fall apart in the late 1970s if it was not for that military aid from the USSR.  Of course it was mostly because of Derg that they were in that position in the first place.  Another clue that shows how I felt was correct is of course, as it is pointed out, TPLF has a Hoxhaist background and if I recall correctly EPLF had dealings with both Maoist PRC and the USSR.  In this context Marxism was merely a proxy slogan to project a goal of social justice while in reality the goals were regional and indeed personal aggrandizement.   

[jaichind]

Thanks for all this info.  It was also my impression that one of the mistakes Derg made in their late 1970s USSR backed offensive in Eritrea which almost finished off both ELF and EPLF was that it concentrated on ELF when they should have realized that the EPLF was the graver long term threat. 

On the point that that Eritrean independence movement would have died out if Derg have not taken over, I am not so sure.  For sure this is a topic where I do not claim any expertise.  But just the fact that ELF and EPLF had the time and energy in the early 1970s to start turning on each other meant that the combined ELF and EPLF strength must have been significant even before 1974.

I do find it interesting that things have gone full circle and ELF now is backed by Ethiopia although this I am sure hurts their credibility within Eritrea itself.