GOP Generic Ballot Surge

[GaussLaw]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html

The RV-LV conversion was expected to help the GOP, but the damage this did to Democratic prospects was significantly above expected.  The GOP now holds a sizable generic ballot lead of 2.5 points.

What's also fascinating is that the individual Senate races are all mostly tossups, but the mood now seems to be shifting to anti-Dem.

Thoughts?

[Lief 🗽]

2.5% isn't sizable...

[GaussLaw]

2.5% isn't sizable...

Well, I meant sizable relative to any lead they've held for the whole year.  This is their high water mark right now......

[DrScholl]

2.5% isn't sizable...

Republicans have their own math. Trailing by 10% can equal "Toss-up", but leading by 2% equals a landslide.

[KCDem]

Good thing that Americans vote for their senators on a generic ballot...oh wait, they don't.

[JohnCA246]

It does mean something though for house and legislature seats. Not all that much, since gerrymandering exists, but its a barometer nonetheless.

[backtored]

Thoughts?

Yes, that portends a wave election.  As undecided voters begin to "come home," they're coming home to the GOP.  That will begin to turn a lot of these toss-up Senate races in a more favorable direction for the GOP.  That has already happened in Alaska and Arkansas, as would expect.  Voters in those states lean GOP anyway, so it doesn't take much to push them towards Sullivan or Cotton.  It'll take a bit longer to push voters in Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, if it happens at all, because voters are more genuinely up for grabs.  Think Wisconsin in 2010, when it took until very late in the campaign for the race to break Johnson's way.

[KCDem]

Thoughts?

Yes, that portends a wave election.  As undecided voters begin to "come home," they're coming home to the GOP.  That will begin to turn a lot of these toss-up Senate races in a more favorable direction for the GOP.  That has already happened in Alaska and Arkansas, as would expect.  Voters in those states lean GOP anyway, so it doesn't take much to push them towards Sullivan or Cotton.  It'll take a bit longer to push voters in Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, if it happens at all, because voters are more genuinely up for grabs.  Think Wisconsin in 2010, when it took until very late in the campaign for the race to break Johnson's way.

Johnson was leading by July, so no. The race didn't break late.

[GaussLaw]

Good thing that Americans vote for their senators on a generic ballot...oh wait, they don't.

You do know the House is up also, right?

And come on KCDem, I specifically mentioned that individual Senate races were not necessarily reflecting this shift.  So instead of being a crank, how about you read what I wrote?

[backtored]

Thoughts?

Yes, that portends a wave election.  As undecided voters begin to "come home," they're coming home to the GOP.  That will begin to turn a lot of these toss-up Senate races in a more favorable direction for the GOP.  That has already happened in Alaska and Arkansas, as would expect.  Voters in those states lean GOP anyway, so it doesn't take much to push them towards Sullivan or Cotton.  It'll take a bit longer to push voters in Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina, if it happens at all, because voters are more genuinely up for grabs.  Think Wisconsin in 2010, when it took until very late in the campaign for the race to break Johnson's way.

Johnson was leading by July, so no. The race didn't break late.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wi/wisconsin_senate_feingold_vs_johnson-1577.html

[Tender Branson]

FOX even has R+7 right now, but their Obama approval poll is also quite crappy, so ...

Besides, there is a stickied thread for this.

[Eraserhead]

I've never paid a lot of a lot of attention to the generic ballot question.

[KCDem]

Good thing that Americans vote for their senators on a generic ballot...oh wait, they don't.

You do know the House is up also, right?

And come on KCDem, I specifically mentioned that individual Senate races were not necessarily reflecting this shift.  So instead of being a crank, how about you read what I wrote?

You specifically were talking about Senate races in reference to the generic ballot. Obviously Senate races aren't affected by that, but neither are house races. If Americans elected their house members via generic ballot, we would be talking about wether Democrats hold onto the house, since they won the "generic ballot" in 2012. In any case, these generic ballot polls are useless and serve as a cheap excuse so that news organizations don't have to pay for expensive polls of individual races.

[JohnCA246]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is a good point, but has me a bit scared. Dems "won" in 2012 but didn't pick much up because of Gerry-meandering. I'm worried the GOP will pick up something like 10 seats if they "win" the generic house vote by even the slimmest margin.

[Lief 🗽]

Look, if the GOP had a sizable lead in the generic ballot, they would not be losing North Carolina by 3-6%.

[eric82oslo]

Look, if the GOP had a sizable lead in the generic ballot, they would not be losing North Carolina by 3-6%.

Yeah, and Kay Hagan (I watched big parts of their first debate performance, my very first meeting with her) doesn't seem particularily well-articulated. I kept constantly thinking that I could have done a million times better than her, that she was almost an embarrassment to the party, and honestly I obviously couldn't. Tillis however seemed like a smug moronic absolute self-obsessed idiot who didn't answer one single question anyone actually asked him during the entire debate I think - he just found it more convenient to resolve to his own talking points. At least he had gallactical tons of self-confidence. However, bad for him, he didn't have charisma whatsoever. Normally it would have been an enormous Hagan loss, but in the strange state that is North Carolina, Tillis actually proved himself to be the biggest ass that is alive in the state of NC presently. What a moronic, scary figure. And I don't even think Hagan deserves reelection after that catastrophic debate performance...

The only shed of light during the whole debate was the moderator herself, which I almost fell slightly in love with, despite being queer. She was at least three times as smart as both Hagan and Tillis together. She should have been the one we could have voted for as the new senator.

The whole debate here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl9sB2vh6KU

[njwes]

Pew Research
9/2 - 9/9
Republicans +3

RCP puts the average at Reps +3.9

Not bad.

[jaichind]

Pew Research
9/2 - 9/9
Republicans +3

RCP puts the average at Reps +3.9

Not bad.

I think part of this is because of the move from RV to LV.

[7,052,770]

It's really interesting how we have two separate realities going on -- every day Republicans become more and more convinced of a big win, and every day Democrats become more confident that they'll hold on.

One of these groups is going to be really shocked and upset come November...

[IceSpear]

It's really interesting how we have two separate realities going on -- every day Republicans become more and more convinced of a big win, and every day Democrats become more confident that they'll hold on.

One of these groups is going to be really shocked and upset come November...

Personally, I haven't really moved from my view since Spring. While individual senate races have shifted in the past 6 months, the overall picture has always been (and still is) pretty close to 50/50 in my view. It wouldn't shock me at all if Republicans win the Senate.

[Devils30]

The surge is mainly from the switch from RV to LV. The Dems also have pretty much closed up shop on the House and are putting resources toward Senate and Governor races. Just weird because even with the GOP surge, the polls have gotten more friendly in IA, NC, CO and MI for Dems this past week.

 The RV/LV screen was also a reason why some polls had Romney doing better in 2012 than he did. Many polls had him winning Colorado, Florida and much closer than he ended up in NH, IA and WI. The Braley/Ernst 7 point LV/RV gap could be real but it could also be a GOP disappointment on election night. The intro of cell phones and problems polling Hispanic voters should be taken into account as well.

[IceSpear]

Funnily enough, despite this generic ballot surge, the Upshot has control of the Senate back to being a coin flip.

http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

[SamInTheSouth]

Generic ballot polling for the House is pretty much useless given the gerrymandering of districts.

[Person Man]

This will be the ultimate test of the Obama coalition, especially in states like CO, IA and NC. If Obama's coalition forgets to vote or refuses to vote in 2014 (as they are predicted by the 10-15 point rightward swing accounting for it), the Republicans could gain a dozen seats in the house AND at least 10 in the senate. Beyond that, it would really make Democrats weak going in 2016. If Obama's coalition doesn't deliver, that kind of puts Democrats back at square one. Where do they go?

 

If the Republicans barely takes the Senate and don't make significant (or any) gains the House, it will mean that Obama's coalition is probably here to stay and that the Republican Party needs to change to win from Karl Rove's "majority of a majority".

[Bacon King]

This thread is silly and useless because it's literally an attempt to extrapolate a trend from the fact that RCP changed their methodology